Week 3 of August Market Trends — Sectors, Money Flows, Short Selling, and Undervalued Stocks
Weekly recap of the US stock market for 8/10–8/14 — a one-look summary of indices, sector rotation, ETF money flows, the short-selling radar, and undervalued-stock screening.
- Indices diverged. The Russell 2000 (an index of 2,000 US small- and mid-cap stocks) climbed +1.17% and the Nasdaq 100 rose +1.11%, while the S&P 500 added +0.40% and the Dow Jones was the lone laggard at -0.52%.
- Money flowed in the opposite direction. $5.0 billion exited the Nasdaq 100 ETF QQQ and $3.2 billion left SPY, while the top inflow went to TLT (the 20-year+ US Treasury ETF) at $360 million.
- Energy ran solo at +7.67%, while July retail sales fell 0.6% and dragged consumer discretionary to -1.38%, the worst sector. Next week, Walmart, Home Depot, and Target earnings will reveal the real state of the consumer, and the Jackson Hole meeting on the 21st will set the direction for interest rates.
1. Last Week's Market Recap
This was not a week where indices rose in unison; winners and laggards diverged. After July inflation came in lower than expected, the implied probability of a September rate hike fell to 42%, and rate-sensitive small- and mid-cap stocks and tech names responded first, leaving only the Dow Jones — a basket of 30 large-cap blue chips — behind.
- Energy — International crude rose more than 5% on the week, topping $82 a barrel. As the US continued its blockade of Iranian ports, negotiations to reopen the Strait of Hormuz stalled, and the International Energy Agency (IEA) sized this year's supply shortfall at the widest in five years.
- Utilities — Once July consumer prices rose just 0.1% month-over-month, Treasury yields fell across the board. Power and water utilities carry heavy debt on their capital infrastructure, so when rates fall, their interest burden eases first.
- Communication Services — Sat among the top gainers alongside energy from the start of the week. With rate pressure easing, large-cap growth stocks broadly caught a bid, moving in the same direction as the Nasdaq 100's +1.11%.
- Consumer Discretionary — July retail sales defied the +0.1% consensus and instead fell 0.6%. Combined with a weaker preliminary August consumer sentiment reading, it was the only one of eleven sectors to drop more than 1%.
- Materials — When oil prices rise, chemicals and packaging companies see their input costs rise in tandem. That is why materials stepped back 0.61% in a week when energy surged 7.67%.
- Real Estate — Even with Treasury yields falling, real estate managed only a 0.64% gain. Compared with utilities — another rate-sensitive sector — climbing 1.61%, the relief from easing rates did not spread evenly this far.
Last Week's Earnings in One Line
ASTS AST SpaceMobile — Surprise -132.00% (miss)
SMCI Super Micro Computer — Surprise +77.50% (beat)
CBRS Cerebras Systems — Surprise +74.60% (beat)
JBS JBS — Surprise -40.10% (miss)
BBIO BridgeBio Pharma — Surprise -33.90% (miss)
AXSM Axsome Therapeutics — Surprise -26.90% (miss)
SBS Companhia de Saneamento Basico do Estado de Sao Paulo — Surprise -24.00% (miss)
CRWV CoreWeave — Surprise +22.40% (beat)
PS Pershing Square — Surprise +21.00% (beat)
ASND Ascendis Pharma — Surprise +17.40% (beat)2. Where the Money Moved — ETF Fund Flows
This week's flows did not chase price. $5.0 billion exited the Nasdaq 100 QQQ and $2.95 billion left energy XLE — despite energy's 7.67% rally — while the top inflow went to TLT, the 20-year+ US Treasury ETF, showing that plenty of capital took profits on winners and rotated into rates.
The week's worst-performing sector, consumer discretionary XLY, attracted $310 million, while the only declining index, the Dow Jones DIA, drew $230 million. This was capital stepping in early to buy the dip.
3. Short Selling Radar
The same number reads both ways. With more than 30% of float sold short across these names, it means skepticism is that thick — and equally, that much stock is queued up to be repurchased should prices rise.
The top 12 are populated by names where expectations run ahead of earnings — AI voice recognition SOUN, drones ONDS, quantum computing QUBT, Bitcoin mining BTDR and WULF, and EV maker LCID.
4. Undervalued Stock Screen
Eight of the ten names are headquartered outside the US, and four are in energy. Even as oil rose more than 5% on the week, their price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios remained near 10x — a sign that the market does not view current earnings as earnings that will persist, and cheapness typically comes with a reason attached.
| Ticker | Sector | P/E | P/B | Dividend Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 SHEL Shell | Energy | 10.0 | 1.4 | 3.46% |
 TM Toyota | Consumer Discretionary | 8.4 | 1.0 | 3.42% |
 SAN Banco Santander | Financials | 11.6 | 1.7 | 2.09% |
 TTE TotalEnergies | Energy | 10.9 | 1.5 | 4.59% |
 T AT&T | Communication Services | 8.2 | 1.6 | 4.46% |
 NVO Novo Nordisk | Health Care | 11.2 | 6.0 | 3.96% |
 PGR Progressive | Financials | 10.5 | 3.5 | 4.48% |
 PDD PDD Holdings | Consumer Discretionary | 9.2 | 2.0 | — |
 CNQ Canadian Natural Resources | Energy | 11.8 | 3.0 | 3.71% |
 EQNR Equinor | Energy | 11.1 | 2.4 | 3.86% |
Weekly market trends are published every Saturday morning · Source: site's own aggregation · Finviz
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