Market Wrap US Stock Market Summary – March 31, 2026
Today at a Glance
Market Summary
On Tuesday, US stocks posted their biggest rally of the year as hopes for an end to the Iran war ignited a powerful risk-on move. Iranian President Pezeshkian told the European Council he "has the will to end the war," and a WSJ report indicated President Trump was open to ending the conflict without requiring the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz—sparking an aggressive wave of buying. The Dow surged 1,125 points (+2.49%) to close at 46,341, while the S&P 500 gained +2.91% (6,528) and the Nasdaq rose +3.83% (21,590), all recording their largest single-day advances since May. The VIX plunged 17% to 25.39, and the Fear & Greed Index recovered from 9 to 15. Still, on a monthly basis, the S&P 500 wrapped up its worst March since September 2022. The CB Consumer Confidence Index came in at 91.8, beating expectations (87.9) and also supporting the rebound in sentiment. CNBC
Sector & Asset Movements
With risk-on sentiment exploding on war-end hopes, Technology ($XLK +4.24%) led the rebound, followed by Industrials ($XLI +3.27%), Consumer Discretionary ($XLY +3.14%), and Communications Services ($XLC +2.69%). Financials ($XLF +2.09%) and Healthcare ($XLV +1.94%) were also solid, while Energy ($XLE -1.13%) was the only sector to decline as money rotated out of war-beneficiary plays. Market breadth was overwhelming, with 441 of the S&P 500's constituents advancing.
Unusual dynamics played out across asset markets. Gold ($GLD +3.79%) and silver ($SLV +7.27%) surged simultaneously, creating a rare configuration in which war-end optimism coexisted with safe-haven demand. WTI crude fell to around $101 (with $USO -1.99%) as the geopolitical risk premium shrank. Industrial commodities such as uranium ($URA +6.93%) and copper ($CPER +2.5%) also rallied, reflecting the start of expectations for a post-war global recovery. In bonds, long-duration Treasuries ($TLT -0.1%) held roughly flat, with a clear rotation of capital from safe-haven assets into risk assets. Bloomberg
Key Stock Movements
Semiconductors clawed back most of the prior session's steep decline and led the market rebound. $ARM (+10.41%) jumped more than 10% to take the lead, followed by $INTC (Intel +7.14%), $LRCX (Lam Research +6.87%), $TSM (TSMC +6.78%), $KLAC (KLA +6.5%), and $AMAT (+5.78%), all rebounding sharply. $MU (Micron), which had plunged -9.92% the prior session, recovered +4.93%. The Magnificent 7 were also broadly higher, with $META (+6.67%), $NVDA (+5.62%), $GOOGL (+5.14%), $TSLA (+4.64%), $AMZN (+3.66%), $MSFT (+3.12%), and $AAPL (+2.9%). WSJ
Energy stocks, meanwhile, faced headwinds from war-end expectations. War beneficiaries including $CVX (Chevron -1.81%), $XOM (ExxonMobil -1.06%), $OXY (Occidental -1.87%), and $EOG (-3.55%) all declined. Pre-market, $MKC (McCormick) reported revenue of $1.87B (above the $1.79B estimate) and EPS of $0.66, posting solid results. After the close, $NKE (Nike) released Q3 earnings with EPS of $0.35 (vs. $0.28 expected) and revenue of $11.28B, a beat that drew attention for marking the first North American revenue growth in eight quarters. MarketWatch
Technical Signals & Outlook
Although mega-cap technology stocks, including the Magnificent 7, rebounded 3–7%, they remain in oversold territory on a stochastic basis, leaving room for further upside. In contrast, the Energy sector is showing sustained overbought readings on both the RSI and stochastic, suggesting a meaningful pullback is likely once the war ends. View Technical Signals Report
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