US Stock Market Monthly Report — January 2026

FOMC holds at 3.75% · Gold rally, GLD +11.7% · Inflation cools to 2.7%

January 2026 was a month of calm gains in which inflation stability and gold strength appeared simultaneously. The S&P 500 closed the month up +1.3% at 691.97, while the fear index (VIX) averaged in the 16 range, keeping optimism intact. The most striking move was the gold (GLD) surge of +11.7%. The dollar index (DXY) weakened from 98.42 to 96.99, allowing the appeal of real assets to recover significantly, and demand for safe havens persisted despite easing Middle East tensions. The narrative of gold as a substitute for bitcoin also resurfaced. Economic indicators largely met expectations. On January 13, CPI (Consumer Price Index) YoY came in at 2.7%, matching expectations exactly, and the Q4 GDP preliminary reading of +4.4% reconfirmed strong year-end growth. On the other hand, the ISM Manufacturing PMI released on January 6 came in at 47.9, below the expected 48.4, sending a manufacturing weakness signal. On January 29, the Fed unanimously held the policy rate at 3.75% at the FOMC meeting. Chair Powell said in the press conference that "inflation is moving smoothly toward the target," stabilizing market expectations. The market reacted positively with a slight rebound immediately after the announcement. By sector, Energy (XLE) +11.8% took first place on the back of an oil price rebound, followed by Consumer Staples (XLP) +7.5% and Industrials (XLI) +4.7%. Financials (XLF), on the other hand, fell -2.7% as the only decliner, against concerns over net interest margin (NIM) compression. Tech (XLK) ended roughly flat (-0.3%), but the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) held up well at +1.4%. Attention began to focus on whether the AI frenzy would shift into a correction phase depending on earnings season results. To sum it up in one sentence, January was a month of "relief rally and the revival of gold."

Index Performance

Sector Rotation

January sector return ranking (all 11 sectors). 1. Energy (XLE) +11.83% — 1st

2. Consumer Staples (XLP) +7.49%

3. Materials (XLB) +6.83%

4. Industrials (XLI) +4.72%

5. Communication Services (XLC) +2.72%

6. Real Estate (XLRE) +2.60%

7. Consumer Discretionary (XLY) +2.38%

8. Utilities (XLU) +0.16%

9. Technology (XLK) -0.29%

10. Health Care (XLV) -0.50%

11. Financials (XLF) -2.71%

• Changes in the dot plot following the next FOMC hold
• AI earnings season approaches — guidance from big tech such as Nvidia and Meta

• Back to history