7월 29일 · 실적분석
실적분석
Starbucks ($SBUX) Q3 FY2026 Earnings Analysis — Adjusted EPS Beats Big, Guidance Raised
SBUX Starbucks 실적 요약
Starbucks ($SBUX) posted adjusted EPS of $0.85 in the third quarter of fiscal 2026, comfortably topping the consensus estimate of $0.65. Revenue came in at $9.3 billion, slightly ahead of the $9.12 billion expected, but slipped 1% year over year due to the conversion of its China retail business into a joint venture and licensed model. With four straight quarters of positive global comparable sales and expanding margins, the company raised its full-year guidance, and shares traded firmer in the after-hours session. This was a quarter where the payoff from the turnaround plan showed up in the income statement.
Earnings Scorecard
▸ Revenue: $9.3 billion (YoY -1%, estimate $9.12 billion) ✅ Beat
▸ EPS: Adjusted basis $0.85 (estimate $0.65) ✅ Beat
▸ Guidance: Raised — full-year adjusted EPS $2.55–$2.65; U.S. comparable sales growth in the low-single-digits or better
▸ Stock reaction: After-hours +5.58% ($109.96) — as of 06:05 KST, 07-30
What Went Well
▸ Comparable-sales recovery: Global +7.9%, North America +8.1%, a fourth straight quarter of growth
▸ Earnings surprise: Adjusted EPS of $0.85 handily beat the $0.65 estimate
▸ Margins and outlook: Adjusted operating margin 14.4% (+4.3 percentage points); full-year guidance raised
The bottom line is that customers are coming back. Global comparable sales rose 7.9%, driven by a 4.2% contribution from traffic and a 3.5% contribution from ticket. North America showed an even clearer recovery, with comparable sales up 8.1% and traffic up 4.5%; North America revenue climbed 7% year over year to $7.4 billion. Delivery sales, food attach, and added beverage options lifted the average ticket.
On the earnings side, adjusted EPS of $0.85 ran well past the $0.65 consensus, while GAAP EPS of $0.91 was up 86% year over year. Adjusted operating margin expanded to 14.4%, a 4.3 percentage-point improvement from a year earlier, reflecting operating leverage on top-line growth, easing inflationary pressure, and tariff refunds. Management also raised full-year guidance, sending a message that the recovery is not a one-quarter story.
What Wasn't So Great
▸ Consolidated revenue decline: Down 1% YoY (China shift from company-operated to JV and licensed model)
▸ One-off costs and refunds: Restructuring charges and tariff refunds make margin reading more complicated
▸ Sharp drop in international revenue: International segment revenue down 34%, operating income down 7%
Consolidated revenue of $9.3 billion beat estimates but slipped versus the prior year. With the China retail business converted to a joint venture in April, company-operated revenue fell out of the mix, and the model is now centered on royalties and product sales. International segment revenue came in at $1.3 billion, down 34%, and operating income fell 7% year over year. Comparable sales and margins improved, but for headline growth, the China accounting change has to be filtered out.
The margin expansion also warrants a note of caution. Tariff refunds lowered product and distribution costs and supported margins, while at the same time staffing expenses tied to the turnaround plan and restructuring charges remained a drag. Strip out the one-off tariff benefit and earnings elasticity could cool, so the key question from next quarter is whether margins can hold without the refund.
What Management Said
"Our Back to Starbucks plan is built on the belief that an outstanding cup of coffee, human connection, and the customer experience win every day. Our third-quarter results are the proof." — Brian Niccol, Chairman and CEO
"Our third-quarter results show growing durability in both top- and bottom-line performance, and they reinforce confidence in the trajectory of the business." — Cathy Smith, CFO
Management assessed that the core pillars of the turnaround plan—coffee quality, human connection, and customer experience—were validated by the quarter's numbers. CEO Brian Niccol acknowledged there was still work to do, but reaffirmed the direction of reclaiming the third place (a store where customers want to linger) and becoming the world's best customer-service company. CFO Cathy Smith said durability in both revenue and earnings is growing, signaling confidence in the business's trajectory.
The tone of the guidance was a measured raise. Management laid out a Q4 U.S. comparable-sales growth target and lifted full-year U.S. and global comparable-sales growth, adjusted operating margin, and adjusted EPS ranges, while dialing consolidated revenue down to flat-to-slightly-up versus the prior year to reflect the China structural change. What the market keyed on was less the magnitude of the raise than management's confidence that traffic recovery and margin expansion are linked.
Market Reaction and What to Watch Next
The market digested the combination of a big adjusted-EPS beat, four straight quarters of comparable-sales growth, expanding margins, and a higher full-year outlook, and reacted with after-hours strength. The fact that revenue slipped modestly year over year was read as constructive because the decline was driven by the explainable China structural shift, while the in-store competitive metrics—comparable sales and traffic—clearly improved. Tariff refunds and other one-off tailwinds to margins remain a risk factor, but the guidance raise appears to offset some of that concern.
▸ Watch whether Q4 U.S. comparable sales actually hold the trajectory of mid-single-digit-plus (around 6.5% or more) growth management laid out.
▸ Monitor whether the adjusted operating margin can sustain the full-year target (above 11%) once the tariff-refund effect fades.
▸ Keep an eye on how stably royalty and product sales, along with joint-venture earnings, support international segment results under the new China JV structure.
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