실적분석 2026년 8월 5일

Galaxy Digital ($GLXY) Q2 2026 Earnings Analysis — Adjusted EPS Beats Estimates, Revenue Miss and After-Hours Weakness

Earnings Scorecard

Combined Revenue and Operating Income: $8.711 billion (YoY -3.8%, estimate $14.277 billion) ❌ Miss

EPS (Earnings Per Share): Adjusted basis -$0.09 (estimate -$0.18) ✅ Beat

Guidance: Helios Phase 1 quarterly lease revenue of approximately $80 million, project-level adjusted EBITDA margin of 90%+ (from Q3 2026)

Stock Reaction: After-hours -6.23% ($20.76) — as of 08-05 20:57 KST

Positives

Adjusted EPS Beats Estimates: Adjusted diluted EPS of -$0.09 narrowed the loss versus the estimate (-$0.18)

Data Center Phase 1 Delivery Completed: All 133 MW of critical IT load delivered to CoreWeave is operational, with quarterly lease revenue of approximately $80 million expected from Q3

Digital Asset Operating Resilience: Digital asset segment adjusted gross profit of $66 million, up 34% QoQ

Galaxy Digital is a company growing digital asset trading and asset management alongside data centers for artificial intelligence (AI) and high-performance computing. This quarter, despite the decline in cryptocurrency prices, the combined digital asset and data center operations delivered adjusted gross profit of $86 million and adjusted EBITDA of $1 million, improving by $34 million and $21 million respectively versus the prior quarter.

In particular, data centers recorded their first meaningful quarterly revenue, posting adjusted gross profit of $20 million and adjusted EBITDA of $11 million. The Helios Campus Phase 1 was delivered on schedule, and the company stated that, based on contractual lease rates, it expects quarterly lease revenue of approximately $80 million and a project-level adjusted EBITDA margin of 90%+ from Q3. After quarter-end, the company secured new sites in Texas, expanding its power pipeline to over 5.7 GW, and also raised $3.5 billion in senior secured notes to fund Helios Phase 2 construction.

Negatives

Large Miss on Combined Revenue and Operating Income: Combined revenue and operating income of $8.711 billion came in approximately 39% below the $14.277 billion estimate

Losses Continue: Total net loss of $85 million and adjusted EBITDA of -$77 million — a return to profitability is not yet in sight

Asset and AUM Contraction: Net digital assets and investments down 15%, total managed and staked assets down 12%

Combined revenue and operating income of $8.711 billion fell well short of the analyst estimate of $14.277 billion. On a strict revenue (Revenues) basis, the figure slipped 1.2% YoY from $8.662 billion to $8.557 billion.

Total net loss of $85 million (gross basis, Q2 2026) narrowed from the prior quarter's loss of $216 million but remains in the red. The company attributed the main cause to the decline in digital asset prices during the quarter, and its Treasury Corporate segment posted adjusted gross profit of -$42 million and adjusted EBITDA of -$78 million, driven by unrealized losses and other factors. Combined managed and staked assets also fell 12% QoQ to $7.1 billion, with the price decline reflected in both earnings results and scale metrics.

What Management Said

The company explained that, even in a quarter when digital asset prices fell, digital asset segment adjusted gross profit increased versus the prior quarter, arguing that results are becoming less tied to the direction of coin prices. It simultaneously emphasized data centers as a growth pillar, highlighting the full delivery of Helios Phase 1 and the start of a long-term lease with CoreWeave as achievements, and laid out expectations for quarterly lease revenue and high-margin results from Q3.

After quarter-end, the company paired this with a "scale expansion" message, including new sites in Texas (Merlin, Caspian, and Selene), a $3.5 billion senior notes issuance, and a multi-year infrastructure collaboration with BNY. The company did not provide official guidance for total revenue or EPS company-wide, with commentary focused on expectations around the data center Phase 1 lease revenue trajectory. With losses persisting and the tone leading with the growth story, the market is likely to focus more on execution speed and financing/lease risks than on the narrative.

Market Reaction and What to Watch Next

While adjusted EPS was less bad than expected, the combined revenue/operating income shortfall versus estimates and the ongoing total net loss and adjusted EBITDA deficit appear to have weighed on sentiment. The long-term data center growth picture was detailed in the press release, but with no near-term confirmation of a company-wide return to profitability, combined with digital asset price declines pressuring Treasury and AUM metrics, profit-taking and de-risking flows may have dominated.

The focus going forward is less on "guidance numbers" and more on whether deliveries and leases translate into actual cash flow. The key questions are: whether the Phase 1 quarterly lease revenue path of approximately $80 million materializes in Q3, whether progress is made on Helios Phase 2 construction and additional lease discussions for incremental ~830 MW of capacity, and how much digital asset price swings will drive Treasury Corporate segment unrealized P&L and net loss size.

In Q3 2026, monitor whether Helios Phase 1 quarterly lease revenue comes close to the company's expectation of approximately $80 million.

Watch progress on the Helios Phase 2 construction schedule and new lease agreements for the additional ~830 MW of capacity.

Track how much digital asset price swings drive unrealized P&L in the Treasury Corporate segment and the size of net losses.