실적분석 2026년 8월 20일

Deere & Company ($DE) FY2026 Q3 Earnings Analysis — Revenue & EPS Beat, Full-Year Guidance Raised

Earnings Scorecard

Revenue: $10.999 billion (+6% YoY, vs. $10.734 billion estimate) ✅ Beat

EPS: GAAP diluted $5.10 vs. adjusted estimate of $4.69 — different basis; company cites beat vs. expectations ✅ Beat

Guidance: Raised — FY2026 Deere-attributable net income of $4.75B–$5.0B

Stock reaction: +1.18% after-hours ($587.5) — as of 08-20 20:44 KST

The Positives

Construction & Forestry: Revenue +18%, operating profit +84%, margin 12.1%

Small Agriculture & Turf: Revenue +12%, operating profit +28%

Full-year guidance: Attributable net income outlook raised to $4.75B–$5.0B

Construction & Forestry and Small Agriculture & Turf filled the gap left by Large Agriculture. Pricing actions lifted margins across multiple segments, and the company raised its full-year net income outlook on the back of this momentum.

The Negatives

Production & Precision Ag: Revenue -6%, operating profit -9%

Large Ag demand: US & Canada industry outlook -15% to -20%

Tariff refund: $110 million recognized in Q3 — earnings-quality read-through needed

Production & Precision Ag continued to see lower shipments, leaving it as a key gauge of core-business health. With the tariff refund adding to profits, underlying margins excluding the refund will be the next focal point.

What Management Said

Chairman & CEO John May cited US market stability and the management of softness in Brazil and Europe as the backdrop for the quarter, reaffirming his view that 2026 marks the bottom of the ag-equipment cycle. He expressed long-term confidence based on early-order trends, used-equipment inventory, and the adoption of advanced technologies, and the market interpreted his comments as embracing the "bottom-is-in" thesis alongside the raised guidance.

Market Reaction and What to Watch Next

The setup looks like relief buying driven by the beat, the raised full-year net income outlook, and the "2026 bottom" message. That said, the core Large Ag business is still contracting, so it would be premature to get carried away with optimism.

Monitor whether Large Ag (Production & Precision Ag) shipments establish a firmer bottom

Watch whether FY2026 attributable net income holds within the newly raised $4.75B–$5.0B range

Check whether used-equipment inventory and early-order trends are actually improving