실적분석 2026년 8월 26일

Li Auto ($LI) Q2 2026 Earnings Analysis — Revenue Beats, Adjusted Loss Slightly Misses, After-Hours Weakness

Earnings Scorecard

Revenue: RMB 25.67 billion (about $3.8 billion) (-15.1% YoY, vs. consensus estimate of $25.069 billion) ✅ Beat

EPS: Adjusted loss per ADS of RMB 1.49 (about $0.22) (vs. estimate of -$1.47) ✅ Beat

Guidance: Newly issued — Q3 deliveries of 95,000–100,000 vehicles, revenue of RMB 26.6–28.0 billion

Stock Reaction: After-hours -1.47% ($12.09) — as of 08-26 20:42 Korean time

The Positives

Gross Margin Rebound: Up 3.1 percentage points from 7.9% in the prior quarter (Q2 2026)

Revenue Beat: RMB 25.67 billion, exceeding consensus of $25.069 billion

Adjusted Loss Beat: Loss per ADS of RMB 1.49 (about $0.22), better than the expected -$1.47

Cash Flow Improvement: Operating cash flow turned positive, free cash outflow narrowed

Deliveries reached 98,330 units, up from the prior quarter, and the launch of the fully refreshed L-series helped support a recovery in average selling price. Cash and equivalents stood at RMB 87.5 billion (about $12.9 billion) at the end of June, leaving room to continue investing in new vehicles and R&D.

The Negatives

Vehicle Margin Plunge: Fell to 9.4% from 19.4% a year earlier

Deliveries Down YoY: 98,330 units, -11.5% versus the prior-year period

Revenue and gross profit each contracted 15.1% and 53.3% YoY, respectively, making the top-line deceleration clearly visible. Product mix shifts have continued to weigh on margins, making the contribution of new vehicles in the second half to profitability a key question.

What Management Said

Management explained that the company retained its leadership in the high-end new energy vehicle market despite the model transition cycle, and that margin will expand further as the product mix improves in the second half. The market reflected the year-over-year declines in revenue and margin — along with the essentially flat Q3 outlook — ahead of the upbeat tone.

Market Reaction and What to Watch Next

The combination of YoY revenue and delivery declines, the pace of margin recovery, and an essentially flat Q3 revenue outlook has tempered expectations.

Watch whether Q3 deliveries can meet the 95,000–100,000 vehicle guidance.

Track whether vehicle margin rises further from the 9% range on the back of refreshed trims and new-vehicle mix.

Monitor whether orders for the new L6 and L8 translate into actual deliveries.