실적분석 2026년 8월 11일

Firefly Aerospace ($FLY) Q2 2026 Earnings Analysis — Revenue and Adjusted Per-Share Loss Both Top Estimates, New Annual Guidance Issued

Earnings Scorecard

Revenue: $117.7 million (+659% YoY; estimate $88.52 million) ✅ Beat

EPS (per-share profit/loss): Non-GAAP basis -$0.42 (estimate -$0.53) ✅ Beat

Guidance: Newly introduced — 2026 full-year revenue of $420 million to $450 million

Stock reaction: +2.55% after-hours ($27.03) — as of 06:04 KST, 8/12

The Positives

Revenue record: Q2 revenue of $117.7 million, roughly 33% above the $88.52 million estimate

Improvement in Non-GAAP per-share loss: Non-GAAP net loss per share of $0.42, better than the $0.53 loss expected

Major contracts and capacity expansion: $144 million Blue Ghost NASA contract; acquisition of SpaceEngi; campus expansion

Revenue crossed $100 million in a quarter for the first time, making the growth trajectory unmistakable. Lunar and national-security mission wins, paired with expanded manufacturing and research space, broadened the foundation needed to convert the order book into delivered results this quarter.

The Shortcomings

Continued large net losses: Net loss attributable to common shareholders of $92.32 million (GAAP); operating loss of approximately $95.20 million

Cash burn accelerating: Free cash flow of negative $106.3 million (approximately $106.3 million); operating cash outflow of $81.57 million

Cost burden persists: R&D of $71.53 million and SG&A of $47.54 million — a cost structure that exceeds revenue

Growth is fast, but the path to profitability remains unclear. Even though cash raised since the IPO provides a cushion in the near term, any combination of launch or mission delays could widen the losses again.

What Management Said

CEO Jason Kim emphasized that the Q2 revenue breakthrough is moving in lockstep with execution across rocket, spacecraft, and software orders. The message was that expanded lunar missions, Mars support, and campus expansion position the company to meet demand, and the annual outlook introduced only a revenue range.

Market Reaction and What to Watch Next

The revenue surprise, large contract wins, and newly issued annual guidance partially offset the persistent drag of losses, and after the close the market leaned toward a modest upside on the growth story.

Watch the pace of recognition in the second half relative to the newly introduced full-year revenue range ($420 million to $450 million) and whether growth accelerates after the roughly $199 million posted in the first half.

Execution milestones — Alpha launch cadence, the Swedish launch infrastructure, and the maritime launch partnership — are the key to converting backlog into revenue.

After-hours shares moved up 2.55% on the revenue surprise, large contract wins, and annual guidance. Whether the free cash flow deficit and the R&D-plus-SG&A burden narrow, reducing the loss magnitude, will be confirmed by upcoming earnings.