실적분석 2026년 8월 19일

Coty ($COTY) Fiscal 2026 Fourth-Quarter Earnings Analysis — After-Hours Plunge on Recovery Pace Concerns Despite Revenue Beat

Earnings Scorecard

Revenue: $1.269 billion (+1% YoY, consensus $1.195 billion) ✅ Beat

EPS (Earnings Per Share): Adjusted -$0.02 (consensus -$0.01) ❌ Miss

Guidance: Newly issued — Q1 FY2027 like-for-like revenue down low- to mid-single-digits; adjusted EPS ex-swap of $0.11–$0.13; first-half free cash flow of $300 million or more

Stock Reaction: -8.56% after-hours ($2.77) — as of 08-20 06:03 Korea Standard Time

The Positives

Revenue Beat: Q4 revenue of $1.269 billion exceeded the consensus of $1.195 billion.

Reported Revenue Rebound: Turned back to growth with a +1% year-over-year increase on a reported basis.

Improved Cash Generation: Q4 free cash flow of $72.6 million expanded sharply versus the prior-year period.

Both Prestige and Consumer Beauty lifted reported revenue, pushing the quarterly total higher. A meaningful portion of the adjusted loss stemmed from a mark-to-market loss on the equity swap, making the underlying operating result less negative than the headline figure suggests.

The Negatives

Adjusted EPS Miss: Adjusted EPS of -$0.02 fell short of the consensus -$0.01.

Like-for-Like Revenue Decline: On a like-for-like basis, which strips out FX and acquisition effects, revenue slipped -1%.

Margin and Guidance Burden: Adjusted gross margin contracted 1.4 percentage points year-over-year, and the next quarter is also guided lower on revenue.

The Middle East conflict drove roughly a 1-percentage-point revenue headwind, while inventory, tariffs, and lower capacity utilization pressured margins. Consumer Beauty's like-for-like revenue declined -3%, lagging the Prestige segment.

What Management Said

Management described the fourth quarter as an early sign of stabilization but drew a line that the recovery would not be linear. Coty is framing fiscal 2027 as a transition period centered on rebuilding the core business and simplifying the portfolio, putting greater weight on structural improvement than on a short-term rebound.

Market Reaction and What to Watch

The like-for-like decline and the cautious next-quarter outlook appeared to amplify selling pressure after the close, overshadowing the revenue surprise.

Monitor whether Q1 FY2027 like-for-like revenue lands within the company's guided range.

Watch how closely consumer sell-out tracks market growth.

Track cost savings and replacement-brand contributions from the early termination of the Gucci Beauty license.