실적분석 2026년 8월 13일

Birkenstock ($BIRK) Fiscal 2026 Q3 Results Analysis — Revenue Beat, Guidance Raised, Shares Surge After-Hours

Results Scorecard

Revenue: €720 million (+13% YoY · +15% at constant currency, vs. €713 million estimate) ✅ Beat

EPS: Adjusted €0.74 (+19% YoY, vs. $0.75 estimate) ❌ Miss · GAAP €0.60

Guidance: Raised — FY2026 constant-currency revenue growth to 15% (from 13–15%), adjusted EBITDA to at least €710 million (from at least €700 million)

Stock Reaction: After-hours +9.69% ($40.3) — as of 08-13 20:52 KST

What Went Well

Growth across all regions: Constant-currency Americas +14% · Europe +15% · APAC +23%

Guidance raised: Full-year revenue growth to 15%, EBITDA to at least €710 million

Direct-to-consumer acceleration: +16% at constant currency, 13 new company-owned stores opened

Demand was broad-based across channels and regions, and direct-to-consumer outpaced wholesale, reaffirming the strength of the brand's pricing power. The raised annual targets also signal that the growth trajectory remains firmly intact.

What Fell Short

Adjusted EPS miss: €0.74, narrowly below the $0.75 estimate

Gross margin contraction: Adjusted gross margin of 59.2%, down 1.3 percentage points YoY

GAAP net income decline: €110 million, down 15% YoY (one-off)

U.S. tariffs and FX weighed on margins, while non-cash charges tied to the accelerated share buyback and senior notes refinancing pressured GAAP earnings. A higher tax rate outlook of 30–31% could also weigh on the pace of net income growth.

What Management Said

Management pointed to Q3 momentum to lift full-year revenue and EBITDA targets, emphasizing resilient brand demand. Beyond the upward revision in the numbers, the market took the direct-to-consumer acceleration and the buyback execution as a signal of management's confidence in sustained growth.

Market Reaction and What to Watch

The revenue beat and full-year guidance raise overshadowed the modest EPS miss, drawing heavy buying interest in after-hours trading.

Watch whether double-digit constant-currency growth continues into Q4.

Monitor whether gross margin deteriorates further under tariff and FX pressure.

Track the size of additional buybacks and the path of the net leverage ratio.