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Fed funds-rate futures open interest hits record high…rate hike remains uncertain

Bloomberg ·

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  1. 1Open interest in Fed funds-rate futures has surged to an all-time high, bracing for a possible rate hike on Wednesday.
  2. 2According to CME Group data, Fed funds futures open interest hit 909,714 contracts on Friday and 967,136 on Monday, surpassing the previous record set in October 2024.
  3. 3As of Tuesday evening, the implied probability of a 0.25 percentage point hike stands at roughly one-third, with a hold favored, while mixed economic signals and the leadership transition under Chair Kevin Warsh have heightened uncertainty.

This 3-line summary is compiled from the report below.

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