Pre-market briefing March 31, 2026

Pre-Market Briefing for March 31, 2026

Today at a Glance

Briefs · earnings · signals, first Telegram · KakaoTalk channels

Market Tone

Heading into Tuesday's US session, contracts across the board are rebounding. S&P 500 futures are +0.8%, Nasdaq futures +0.7%, and Dow futures +0.8%, as reports that President Trump is willing to end the Iran war even without reopening the Strait of Hormuz lifted sentiment. However, Iran has rejected a 15-point ceasefire proposal, and US-Israeli airstrikes on Iran continued in the early hours today, so a meaningful de-escalation still has a long way to go. WTI crude is taking a breather with a modest decline (-0.5%) around the $102 range. In Asia, the KOSPI plunged 4.3% and the Nikkei also lost 1.6%, while the Hang Seng was the only gainer, edging up 0.2%.

Today's Events

At 9:45 AM ET, the Chicago PMI (estimate 55.0, prior 57.7) is released, followed at 10:00 AM by the CB Consumer Confidence index (estimate 87.0, prior 91.2). The confidence figure is particularly important for gauging consumer-sentiment damage from the Iran war and the surge in oil prices, and with the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment index already having plunged to 53.3, a sharp drop is widely expected. On the earnings front, $MKC (McCormick, EPS estimate $0.61, revenue $1.79B) reports before the open, and $NKE (Nike, EPS estimate $0.32, revenue $11.23B) reports after the close. Nike is down 20% YTD amid concerns over weak China sales and margin pressure, and the options market is implying an 8.6% move, so volatility is expected after the bell.

Recap of the Previous Session

Monday's US market closed mixed as semiconductors sold off and oil broke above $100. The Dow edged up 0.11% to 45,216, while the S&P 500 lost 0.39% to 6,343 and the Nasdaq fell 0.73% to 20,794, retesting seven-month lows. The semiconductor sector tumbled across the board on the Google TurboQuant shock and helium-supply concerns ($MU -9.9%, $LRCX -5.4%), while financials ($XLF +1.15%) and defensives rose. After Chair Powell warned of an energy-supply shock and reaffirmed a wait-and-see stance on monetary policy, the 10-year yield slipped back below 4%. View previous-session recap

Stocks in Focus

$MU (Micron), after plunging 9.92% the prior day, has entered extreme-oversold territory with a lower-Bollinger-band breach combined with a stochastic oversold reading. Whether the selloff was an overreaction to the Google TurboQuant news and whether it can mount a rebound today are key questions. $NVDA (Nvidia) is also holding at a lower-Bollinger-band breach and stochastic oversold condition, serving as the bellwether for the AI sector's direction. $NKE (Nike), which reports after today's close, sits in oversold territory with an RSI of 26.45 and, depending on an upside surprise, could set the tone for the consumer-discretionary sector more broadly. View technical-signals report