Week 3 of August Earnings & Data Diary — Earnings and Economic Indicators Weekly Outlook
A day-by-day roundup of US stock earnings releases and consensus estimates, along with key economic indicators including CPI and employment data, for the third week of August (8/17–8/21).
- This week is retail earnings week. Starting with Home Depot on Tuesday, followed by Target, Lowe's, and TJX on Wednesday, and Walmart on Thursday, major retailers report one after another. The busiest single day is Wednesday, August 19, with 7 releases.
- The most important indicator is the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index on Thursday, August 20 (the inflation metric the Fed watches most closely when setting rates). Consensus estimates have not been released yet, and the most recent July CPI came in at 3.4% year-over-year, with core excluding energy and food at 2.5%. Ahead of the Fed meeting on September 16, the stakes are high: hold or hike, rather than cut.
- In total, there are 20 major earnings releases and 6 economic indicators. All six indicators are clustered on Thursday alone, overlapping that morning with Walmart's earnings.
Earnings releases and indicators are compiled at a glance by day. Pre-market (reported before the open) earnings are reflected in that day's opening price, while after-hours (post-close) earnings are reflected the next morning.
FN Fabrinet
WMT Walmart · 
BABA Alibaba · 
DE Deere & Company · 
NTES NetEase · 
AEG AegonAfter-hours
ROST Ross Stores⭐⭐⭐ Core PCE Price Index
⭐⭐ Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE)
⭐⭐ Weekly Initial Jobless Claims — Expected 210K · Previous 200K
BEKE KE Holdings2. Key Earnings to Watch
Selected from this week's releases, these are the ones with the broadest market impact.
HD Home Depot — The first thermometer of housing-related consumer spending
Home Depot opens the door to this week's major earnings. The number to watch isn't total revenue but comparable sales (sales from stores open more than one year). The company has set its full-year guide at 0–2% growth, with Q1 coming in at 0.6%. Whether the result lands at the upper end of that range or falls below will also set expectations for Lowe's (LOW) reporting the next day.
TGT Target — Options market is pricing in a 7% move
Target has a different character from the previous two. With a higher mix of apparel and general merchandise versus essentials like groceries, signs of cooling consumption show up here first. The options market is pricing in roughly a 7% move post-report, and with the stock having recently rallied, the bar it needs to clear has risen.
ADI Analog Devices — A check on chip demand for factories and cars
Analog Devices makes chips that go into factory equipment, automobiles, and telecom infrastructure — not AI servers. The company's prior guide was approximately $3.9B in revenue and adjusted EPS of around $3.30, with consensus slightly above that. With revenue jumping in the 30%+ year-over-year range, the question for management to address is whether this rebound is customer inventory restocking or genuine end-demand.
WMT Walmart — The verdict on consumer spending comes Thursday morning
How much American households have opened their wallets is most broadly reflected at Walmart. The key is not just this quarter's numbers but whether the company raises its full-year guidance. Last quarter's EPS merely met expectations, so the watch is for a return to the prior pattern of both a beat and an upward guide.
BABA Alibaba — Cloud growing, profits being shaved
Alibaba is the largest China-listed e-commerce and cloud company on US exchanges. Cloud revenue continues to grow around 20% on AI demand, while operating profit is being pressured by heavy spending on instant delivery (within roughly an hour of ordering) competition. The market's call between revenue growth and margin sacrifice is the fork in the road, and with NetEase (NTES) also reporting that day, the tone for China tech broadly will be set together.
3. Economic Indicator Preview
PCE Price Index (Headline & Core)
This is the inflation gauge the Fed weighs more heavily than CPI. Year-over-year and month-over-month, headline and core (excluding energy and food) — all four versions come out on the same day. If the cooling trend from July CPI (3.4% YoY, 2.5% core) carries through here, the September 16 Fed meeting tilts toward a hold; if core reverses higher, the debate over a hike rather than a cut re-emerges and weighs on indices near all-time highs.
Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) — Actual dollars spent
It shares a name with the price index above, but this one measures the actual dollars spent by households. Cross-checking against Walmart's morning numbers and Target/Lowe's from the prior day gives a sharper read on consumer activity. If the dollar amount of spending falls even as inflation cools, it would mean retailer revenue growth isn't from selling more goods.
Weekly Initial Jobless Claims
The number of people newly filing for unemployment benefits, the fastest weekly read on whether the labor market is cooling. The prior reading was around 200K and the 4-week average was at its lowest since October 2022. A meaningful upside surprise versus the 210K expectation would also darken the lens through which consumer indicators and retail earnings are viewed.
4. This Week's Checklist
- Monday 8/17 — A breather from major earnings. After the close, Fabrinet (FN) gives the first read on optical communications component demand.
- Tuesday 8/18 — Home Depot (HD) reports pre-market. The first hurdle is whether comparable sales land within the company's 0–2% guide.
- Wednesday 8/19 — The week's busiest day with 7 releases. Target, Lowe's, TJX, and Analog Devices land on the same day, giving a simultaneous read on consumer and chip demand.
- Thursday 8/20 — All six indicators plus Walmart, Alibaba, and Deere & Company earnings land on the same day. The focal point of the week.
- Friday 8/21 — A quiet day with just KE Holdings (BEKE). Time to take stock of whether consumer indicators and retail earnings point in the same direction.
Next week's earnings and indicators diary will be published Saturday morning · Sources: Company filings and major wire service consensus
Disclaimer: 실적 발표 일정과 컨센서스는 변경될 수 있습니다 · This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. All investment responsibility lies with the investor.