실적분석 2026년 8월 11일

Super Micro Computer ($SMCI) FY2026 Q4 Earnings Analysis — Adjusted EPS Beats Big, Revenue Slightly Misses

Earnings Scorecard

Revenue: $11.12 billion (+93% YoY, consensus $11.563 billion) ❌ Miss

EPS (Earnings Per Share): Adjusted diluted $1.70 (consensus $0.96) ✅ Beat

Guidance: Newly issued — next-quarter revenue $14.5–15.5 billion, adjusted diluted EPS $1.01–$1.10 · FY2027 revenue $65–72 billion

Stock Reaction: After-hours +8.82% ($34.39) — as of 06:00 KST, Aug 12

The Positives

Adjusted EPS Beats Big: Adjusted diluted EPS of $1.70 came in well above the $0.96 consensus.

Sharp Gross Margin Rebound: Quarterly gross margin of 17.5% improved significantly from 9.5% a year earlier and 9.9% the prior quarter.

Strong Orders / Backlog: Over $60 billion in new orders booked over the past year, with the company stating it entered FY2027 with the largest order backlog in its history.

As demand for artificial intelligence servers continues, a rising mix of enterprise customers and broader adoption of data center building-block solutions are visibly improving the earnings structure. Operating profit jumped to $1.49 billion from $230 million a year earlier, and operating cash flow for the quarter swung back to a $750 million inflow.

The Negatives

Revenue Miss: $11.12 billion came in roughly 4% below the $11.563 billion consensus.

Inventory / Working Capital Burden: Inventory surged to $12.90 billion from $4.68 billion at the end of the prior year, and full-year operating cash flow was an outflow of $6.81 billion.

Debt, Interest, and Regulatory Risks: Bank borrowings and convertible notes totaled $8.7 billion, quarterly interest expense of $80 million was up sharply from a year earlier, and an independent board investigation related to export controls is ongoing.

Although the absolute revenue level nearly doubled year over year, the shortfall versus expectations is disappointing. Inventory and receivables expansion to support growth, the higher interest burden, the preliminary nature of the results, and the outcome of the export-control investigation are variables that could shake the numbers and outlook going forward.

What Management Said

CEO Charles Liang explained that the company's end-to-end AI and information technology solutions strategy is delivering strong results, with profitability lifted by an expanding enterprise customer base and the adoption of optimized data center architectures. By issuing new next-quarter and full-year revenue guidance, he underscored the company's commitment to scaling in line with accelerating demand.

Market Reaction and Key Points Ahead

Revenue came in slightly below expectations, but the market appears to have weighed the much larger adjusted EPS beat, the sharp gross margin rebound, and the new next-quarter and full-year growth outlook more heavily.

Confirmation is needed on whether next-quarter revenue lands within the $14.5–15.5 billion guidance range.

A key point to watch is whether the gross margin recovery to the 17% range is sustained rather than one-off.

Inventory digestion, improvement in operating cash flow, and progress of the export-control investigation should also be monitored together.