실적분석 2026년 8월 25일

SelectQuote ($SLQT) FY2026 Q4 Earnings Analysis — After-hours plunge on revenue miss and lower FY2027 revenue guidance

Earnings Scorecard

Revenue: $322 million (–7% year-over-year; estimate $353 million) ❌ Miss

EPS (Earnings Per Share): GAAP loss of $0.19 (adjusted loss estimate $0.14; different basis — direct comparison not possible)

Guidance: Newly issued — FY2027 revenue $1.35 billion–$1.45 billion, adjusted EBITDA $90 million–$115 million, operating cash flow above $60 million

Stock Reaction: After-hours –17.38% ($0.64) — as of 08-25 20:53 KST

The Positives

Adjusted EBITDA rebound: Q4 came in at $11.9 million, a sharp increase from $2.7 million a year earlier

Annual operating cash flow improvement: FY2026 operating cash flow of $31.9 million, a $44 million improvement year-over-year

Senior margin durability: Full-year adjusted EBITDA margin of 26%, exceeding the long-term target (20%+) for four consecutive years

Senior insurance distribution and pharmacy (SelectRx) expansion underpinned earnings strength. Management cited technology-driven workflow efficiencies and expects annualized cost savings of more than $30 million, projecting even greater operating cash flow next year on that basis.

The Negatives

Revenue miss: $322 million fell short of the $353 million estimate and was also down year-over-year

Lower FY2027 revenue guidance: $1.35 billion–$1.45 billion, below the prior year's actuals

Widening common-share loss: Net loss attributable to common shareholders of $36.3 million, worse than a year earlier

Beyond the revenue shortfall versus market expectations, the lower top-line bar for the next fiscal year is a further weight. Preferred dividends and dilution pressure widened the loss attributable to common shareholders, so from a shareholder standpoint the hit feels heavier than the headline net loss suggests.

What Management Said

Management expressed confidence in improved cash generation next year, citing margin defense in the senior segment and continued healthcare services expansion. The market, however, read the revenue miss and lower revenue guidance first.

Market Reaction and What to Watch Next

With revenue falling short of estimates and FY2027 revenue guidance set below the prior year's actuals, selling pressure reflected the top-line contraction first, ahead of the cash-flow improvement story.

Whether FY2027 revenue moves closer to the top end of guidance ($1.45 billion)

Whether the decline in approved Senior Medicare Advantage policies halts

Whether the promised annualized cost savings of more than $30 million actually flow through to operating cash flow