실적분석 2026년 8월 20일

Ross Stores ($ROST) Fiscal 2026 Q2 Earnings Analysis — Revenue and EPS Beat, H2 and Full-Year Guidance Raised, Shares Surge in Extended Trading

Earnings Scorecard

Revenue: $6.265 billion (+13% YoY; consensus $6.149 billion) ✅ Beat

EPS: Diluted $2.66 (consensus $1.93; includes ~$0.60 tariff refund benefit) ✅ Beat

Guidance: Raised — full-year diluted EPS $8.61–$8.77 (includes ~$0.60 tariff refund), Q3 comps +6–7% and EPS $1.75–$1.83

Stock Reaction: After-hours +7.04% ($245.1) — as of 08-21 06:00 KST

What Went Well

Comp sales +10%: Traffic led the gain, with both new and existing customer engagement rising together

Diluted EPS $2.66: Well above the $1.93 estimate, including ~$0.60 from the tariff refund

H2 and full-year guidance raised: Store opening plan also expanded to 115 locations

A compelling merchandise assortment and in-store experience lifted traffic, improving the quality of growth. Excluding the tariff refund, operating margin still expanded 2.05 percentage points — ahead of the company's own 1.30–1.50 percentage-point plan.

What Fell Short

Tariff refund is one-time: About $253 million in operating profit, or ~$0.60 per share, was recognized only in Q2

Tougher H2 comparisons: Management itself noted that year-on-year comparisons become much harder in the second half

Comp growth set to slow: Q3 guided to +6–7%, Q4 to +4–5%, both below the Q2 print

Because the second half faces already-strong prior-year results, sustaining the same growth pace will be difficult. The key question is whether comps ex-refund still land within guidance once the benefit rolls off.

What Management Said

CEO Jim Conroy emphasized that traffic and engagement from both new and existing customers rose together, framing the current results as more than a short-term pop. Although H2 comparisons are tough, the company lifted its Q3 and Q4 guides in tandem, and the market read this as a signal that the growth runway remains intact.

Market Reaction and What to Watch Next

With revenue and EPS clearing estimates by wide margins and both H2 and full-year guidance moving higher, the prevailing read — even after stripping out the one-time refund — is that underlying business momentum has been confirmed.

Whether Q3 comps ex the tariff refund land within the +6–7% range

Whether the path to full-year diluted EPS of $8.61–$8.77 is maintained

Whether the rollout of 115 new stores comes at the expense of comp growth and margins