실적분석 2026년 8월 27일

IREN ($IREN) FY2026 Q4 Earnings Analysis — Revenue Misses Estimates, AI Transition Accelerates

Earnings Scorecard

Revenue: $137 million (slightly below the $140 million estimate) ❌ Miss

EPS (Earnings Per Share): Per-share figure not provided in the press release (quarterly net loss of $684 million). Estimate was -$0.46 on an adjusted basis, so direct comparison is not possible

Guidance: Newly issued — FY2026 contracted capacity annualized run-rate revenue of $4 billion ($1 billion live), cumulative delivery targets of approximately 0.3 GW (2026) and 0.8 GW (2027)

Stock reaction: After-hours -2.64% ($39.46) — as of 08:28 KST 06:07

Highlights

Cloud revenue surge: Q4 AI cloud revenue of $70.5 million, full-year $129 million, roughly 8x

Capacity nearly sold out: FY2026 contracted capacity annualized run-rate revenue of $4 billion, with $1 billion live

Major customer delivery: First childless liquid-cooled 50 MW delivered to Microsoft

The center of gravity shifted rapidly from Bitcoin mining to AI cloud this quarter. The customer base also broadened with a multi-year contract with Frontier Research and new customer additions including Cohere and Perplexity.

Lows

Slight revenue miss: Quarterly revenue of $137 million came in below the $140 million estimate

Large net loss: Quarterly net loss of $684 million, driven primarily by a $450 million impairment charge

Sharp drop in adjusted earnings: Adjusted EBITDA of $19.2 million, down from $59.5 million in the prior quarter

As mining equipment was retired and sites were converted for cloud use, accounting losses were recognized all at once. Annualized run-rate revenue is an operating metric that can differ materially from realized revenue, so going forward the pace of delivery and commissioning will be the key factor.

What the Company Said

Co-CEO Daniel Roberts said the founding thesis that digital infrastructure scales quickly while physical infrastructure like power and data centers does not became reality this year. He explained that 2026 capacity is nearly sold out, and the company has secured higher per-MW pricing and a higher prepayment mix while deliberately diversifying its customer base.

Market Reaction and Key Points Ahead

A slight revenue miss and a larger net loss due to impairment, along with lower quarterly adjusted earnings from increased investment, weighed on near-term expectations. The news of AI capacity being sold out and major contracts has likely already been largely priced in.

Whether Horizon 2–4 delivery and customer commissioning proceed on schedule in Q4

How quickly the $4 billion annualized run-rate revenue converts into actual recognized revenue

Whether per-MW contract pricing discussions around the $25 million level come to fruition