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7월 29일 · 실적분석
실적분석

Robinhood ($HOOD) Q2 2026 Earnings Analysis — Revenue and EPS Beat Estimates, Yet Shares Slide After-Hours

HOOD Robinhood 실적 요약

Robinhood ($HOOD) reported Q2 2026 net revenue of $1.31 billion (+32% YoY) and diluted EPS of $0.62, beating estimates ($1.281 billion revenue / $0.55 EPS). However, EPS included a $0.14 one-time gain from deconsolidating a venture fund, and crypto trading revenue declined. Full-year cost guidance was lowered and the range narrowed. Selling pressure persisted after the close, with the market weighing more heavily on the quality of earnings and the sustainability of growth.

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Earnings Scorecard

Revenue: $1.31 billion (+32% YoY, estimate $1.281 billion) ✅ Beat
EPS: Diluted EPS $0.62 (+48% YoY, estimate $0.55) ✅ Beat — but includes a $0.14 one-time gain from deconsolidation of Venture Fund<sup>1</sup>; adjusted EPS not separately disclosed
Guidance: Lowered · 2026 adjusted operating expenses + SBC guidance cut and narrowed to $2.675–$2.775 billion (prior $2.70–$2.825 billion), inclusive of Latoura/WonderFi costs
Stock Reaction: After-hours -3.88% ($86.35) — as of 07-30 06:09 Korea time
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Positives

Record revenue, expanded trading: Net revenue $1.31 billion (+32%), with record trading volumes in equities, options, and event contracts
Net inflows and platform assets: Quarterly net inflows $21.7 billion, platform assets $369 billion (+32%)
Business diversification: 13 lines of business generating $100 million+ in annualized revenue; 4.8 million Gold subscribers
Transaction-based revenue rose 44% YoY to $776 million. Event contract revenue jumped more than 10x to $156 million, with options contributing $342 million (+29%) and equities $129 million (+95%) lifting the total. Equities notional volume of $956 billion, 774 million options contracts, and 13.6 billion event contracts all set quarterly records.
Fund inflows were also strong. Net inflows of $21.7 billion translate to a 28% annualized growth rate versus platform assets at the end of Q1, and trailing-twelve-month net inflows reached $75.7 billion. Funded customers grew to 28.4 million (+7%), and average revenue per funded customer rose to $187 (+24%).
Revenue streams also broadened. Robinhood Legend and the credit-card business each surpassed $100 million in annualized revenue, bringing the total number of such businesses to 13, and Gold subscribers reached 4.8 million (+39% YoY). Gold card credit-card customers crossed 1 million, and the Trump Account logged 7 million sign-ups with roughly $1.5 billion in deposits shortly after launch.
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Negatives

Heavy one-time gain weighting: Of $573 million in net income, roughly $129 million came from the fund deconsolidation gain
Crypto weakness: Crypto trading revenue of $100 million, down 38% YoY
Costs and credit losses rising: Operating expenses +33%, credit-loss provisions doubled, June workforce reduction
Of the headline $0.62 EPS, $0.14 reflects a largely one-time gain tied to the deconsolidation of Robinhood Venture Fund<sup>1</sup> and related items. The $0.55 market estimate is on an adjusted basis, but the company did not provide an adjusted EPS figure, so stripping out the one-time items, earnings quality is weaker than the headline suggests.
While trading was broadly active, crypto trading revenue declined. App-based crypto notional volume also fell 35% YoY. The trading mix has shifted toward event contracts, equities, and options, delivering diversification, but absent a recovery in crypto, that leg remains a source of volatility.
The cost of growth investing also climbed. Total operating expenses rose 33% to $734 million, driven by marketing and growth investments, one-time restructuring costs from the June workforce reduction, and Trump Account- and Latoura-related costs. Credit-loss provisions doubled YoY to $56 million, signaling that risks are scaling alongside the expansion of cards and lending.
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What Management Said

"The business is firing on all cylinders." — Shiv Verma, Chief Financial Officer

Management emphasized the pace of product launches and market-share gains, noting that the business is broadening across trading, subscriptions, cards, and international. The CFO characterized the franchise as gaining momentum across the board, citing record revenue and all-time-high trading volumes in equities, options, and event contracts.
Guidance is centered on the cost plan rather than revenue or profit forecasts. The company lowered and narrowed the 2026 adjusted operating expenses plus stock-based compensation range set in Q1, framing it as absorbing costs from new initiatives such as Latoura and WonderFi while still delivering efficiency. Credit-loss provisions, pending M&A, stock-based compensation true-ups tied to the CFO transition and restructuring, and major regulatory costs are excluded from the guide, leaving room for total costs to step outside the range.
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Market Reaction and What to Watch Next

On the numbers alone, both revenue and EPS topped estimates, but selling pressure dominated after the close. The market appears to be weighing the heavy one-time component in earnings, the softness in crypto trading, and the fact that elevated growth expectations were already priced into the stock. The lower cost guide is an efficiency signal, but it is also mixed with restructuring and new-business costs, leaving room for interpretation as a clean acceleration.
Watch whether underlying profit margins (ex one-time items) and the trading mix (event contracts and options versus crypto) hold up next quarter.
Track whether net inflows and non-trading revenue from Gold, cards, and Trump Account can offset any trading slowdown.
Monitor adherence to the upper end of the adjusted operating expense guide and the trajectory of credit-loss provisions relative to the pace of card and margin expansion.
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