실적분석 2026년 8월 12일

Brinker International ($EAT) Fiscal Year 2026 Q4 Earnings Analysis — Adjusted EPS Slight Miss, Revenue Slight Beat, Shares Slip After-Hours on Initial FY2027 Guidance

Earnings Scorecard

Revenue: $1.536 billion (+5.1% YoY, estimate $1.534 billion) ✅ Beat

EPS: Adjusted $3.07 (estimate $3.08) ❌ Miss

Guidance: Newly introduced — FY2027 total revenue $6.15–$6.27 billion, adjusted diluted EPS $12.60–$13.40 (includes a 53rd week in Q4)

Stock Reaction: After-hours -0.94% ($219.31) — as of 08-12 20:47 KST

Positives

Chili's Growth: Q4 same-store sales +5.6%, cumulative ~+71% over the past 5 years

Slight Revenue Beat: Total revenue of $1.536 billion edged past the $1.534 billion estimate

Shareholder Returns: $400 million in common stock repurchased during FY2026, $750 million buyback authorization approved

Core brand Chili's outperformed the casual dining sector, driven by increased guest traffic and menu and value-oriented strategies, leading company-wide growth. The slight revenue beat and expanded buyback program are positive signals worth noting for new investors.

Negatives

Slight Adjusted EPS Miss: Adjusted $3.07 fell short of the $3.08 estimate by $0.01

Maggiano's Weakness: Same-store sales -2.5%, operating profit dropped sharply YoY

Food Cost Pressure: Rising beef prices and Florida's cold snap caused a temporary increase in produce costs

Despite the strong performance of the flagship brand, it is disappointing that adjusted earnings came in just slightly below consensus. If the weakness in non-flagship brands and cost pressure persist, the pace of margin improvement could be slower than expected, so the next quarter's cost trends should be monitored in tandem.

What Management Said

Management emphasized Chili's consecutive growth and brand competitiveness, expressing confidence in sustainable, profitable growth. For FY2027, the company provided revenue and adjusted EPS guidance for the first time, including the impact of a 53rd week.

Market Reaction and Forward Watchpoints

With adjusted EPS coming in slightly below estimates and Maggiano's weakness and food cost pressure drawing simultaneous attention, the market interpreted the results as falling short of expectations even though the overall earnings were unremarkable.

Monitor whether Chili's guest traffic and menu innovation (Big Crispy, etc.) momentum is sustained

Watch for Maggiano's traffic recovery and improvement in restaurant-level cost ratios

Track underlying business growth progress against the FY2027 guidance (excluding the 53rd-week effect)