실적분석 2026년 8월 10일

AST SpaceMobile ($ASTS) Q2 2026 Earnings Analysis — Slight Revenue Miss, Full-Year Guidance on Track

Earnings Scorecard

Revenue: $31.5 million (roughly 27x year-over-year; estimate $34.4 million) ❌ Miss

EPS: GAAP -$0.77 (adjusted estimate -$0.23; different basis, not directly comparable)

Guidance: Maintained — Full-year 2026 revenue of $150 million–$200 million still on track

Stock reaction: After-hours -1.13% ($67.98) — as of 06:00 KST, 08-11

What Went Well

Order backlog: Expanded to roughly $1.3 billion including commercial and U.S. government contracts

Partnerships: Coverage of 60+ mobile network operators worldwide and 3 billion subscribers

Satellite expansion: 13 satellites in orbit; production and assembly underway through BlueBird 46

Gateway deliveries and the achievement of U.S. government milestones lifted revenue, and the company secured a cumulative total of more than $125 million in contracts from the U.S. government. Cash stood at roughly $2.7 billion at the end of June, or over $3.7 billion on a pro-forma basis including the July convertible bond, providing room to scale.

What Disappointed

Revenue miss: $31.5 million fell short of the $34.4 million market estimate

Heavy loss: Net loss attributable to common stockholders of roughly $231 million (Q2 2026)

One-time hit: $125.9 million loss on involuntary conversions drove a sharp jump in operating expenses

Total operating expenses of $329.1 million rose sharply from the prior quarter, while adjusted operating expenses also climbed to $119.1 million. With full commercial service not yet underway, costs continue to materially outrun revenue.

What Management Said

The company emphasized that, with differentiated technology, a mobile-operator-first strategy and secured spectrum, it is leading the direct-to-device market and that achieving the annual revenue target remains on plan. The market appears to be placing greater weight on the beta service launch and additional satellite deployment timeline than on near-term numbers.

Market Reaction and What to Watch Next

The slight after-hours softness is being read as a reflection of the modest revenue miss and the heavy loss, which included one-time charges.

Watch the timeline for the 2026 beta service launch and initial reactions from strategic partners.

Track whether quarterly revenue accelerates enough to deliver the full-year $150 million–$200 million revenue guidance.

Monitor progress on additional satellite launches and production, alongside the cash burn rate.