실적분석 2026년 8월 11일

Amentum Holdings ($AMTM) Q3 FY2026 Earnings Analysis — Selling Pressure Despite Adjusted EPS Beat as Revenue and Outlook Are Cut

Earnings Scorecard

Revenue: $3.49 billion (Q3 FY2026, -2% vs. $3.561 billion a year earlier, below the FactSet consensus of ~$3.57 billion) ❌ Miss

EPS (earnings per share): Diluted EPS of $0.27 and adjusted diluted EPS of $0.67 (same quarter, adjusted figure topped the FactSet consensus of $0.61) ✅ Beat

Guidance: Revenue lowered, profitability raised — FY2026 revenue of $13.80–$13.95 billion (prior $13.95–$14.30 billion), adjusted diluted EPS of $2.40–$2.50 (prior $2.25–$2.45), the lower end of adjusted EBITDA raised, and free cash flow of $525–$575 million maintained

Stock reaction: Extended-hours -6.06% ($22.96) — as of 08-11, 20:37 Korea Standard Time

What Went Well

Adjusted earnings beat: Adjusted diluted EPS of $0.67 exceeded the prior-year $0.56 and the consensus $0.61

Margin and cash improvement: Adjusted EBITDA of $290 million (+6%), free cash flow of $135 million (+35%)

Larger order book: Total order backlog of $48.2 billion (+8%), quarter-end book-to-bill of 1.1x

Profit quality moved independently of the revenue decline. A smaller intangible-asset amortization burden, lower interest expense, and an improved contract mix lifted margins, while orders from nuclear, digital infrastructure, and defense customers grew the backlog. Setting aside the near-term growth debate, this was a quarter in which the company's ability to generate cash stepped up a notch.

What Fell Short

Revenue decline and miss: $3.49 billion, -2% year-over-year and below consensus (~$3.57 billion)

Full-year revenue guidance cut: Range trimmed to $13.80–$13.95 billion from the prior range's both ends

Underperformance in Global Engineering: Same-quarter revenue of $2.033 billion, down 5% year-over-year

The revenue hit was structural, driven by contracts transferred to joint ventures, last year's divestitures, and the wind-down of certain programs. Even with profit guidance raised, a break in top-line growth tends to compress the multiples of government-services contractors, and Q4 cash conversion will be the key to protecting the full-year free-cash-flow target.

What Management Said

Management acknowledged the near-term revenue pressure but stressed that year-to-date results gave them room to lift their adjusted EBITDA and adjusted EPS guidance. The market read the lower revenue guide as a growth-slowdown signal more heavily than the higher profitability guide, driving the sell-off.

Market Reaction and What to Watch

The market is pricing the revenue decline and full-year revenue cut ahead of the earnings beat, and a re-rating of the "growth story" appears to be feeding selling pressure.

Watch whether Q4 results can defend the low end of the full-year revenue guidance ($13.80 billion).

Track when the impact of the joint-venture conversions and program wind-downs peaks and is offset by new-order revenue recognition.

Monitor the pace of Q4 cash conversion needed to support the full-year free-cash-flow range of $525–$575 million.