실적분석 2026년 8월 18일

Toll Brothers ($TOL) Fiscal 2026 Q3 Earnings Analysis — EPS and Revenue Both Beat, Full-Year Guidance Reiterated

Earnings Scorecard

Revenue: $2.65 billion (down 8% year-over-year vs. estimate of $2.618 billion) ✅ Beat

EPS (Diluted): $2.97 (vs. estimate of $2.90) ✅ Beat

Guidance: Reiterated — full-year home sales revenue of approximately $10.5 billion and adjusted gross margin of 26.1% confirmed; share repurchase outlook raised to $700 million

Stock Reaction: -0.30% in extended hours ($142.43) — as of 06:00 KST, Aug 19

The Positives

Contract Growth: Net contract value of $2.52 billion, up roughly +5% (or +4.6%) year-over-year

Margin Beat Guidance: Adjusted home gross margin of 25.6%, 0.35 percentage points above guidance

Expanded Shareholder Returns: Quarterly shareholder returns of $231 million; annual share repurchase authorization raised to $700 million

New contracts grew in both dollar value and unit count, signaling sustained demand. The number of selling communities rose to 471, up from a year ago, and the company plans to expand community count by an additional 8–10% by fiscal year-end.

The Negatives

Revenue Decline: Home sales revenue of $2.65 billion, down 8% from $2.88 billion a year earlier

Earnings Contraction: Net income of $280.1 million, down from $369.6 million in the prior-year period

Margin and Cost Pressure: Home gross margin of 23.9% and SG&A ratio of 10.0%, both worse than a year ago

Deliveries fell to 2,662 homes, weighing on the top line. Operating income of $359.2 million declined roughly 26% from a year earlier, with other items such as unconsolidated joint venture impairments also dragging on earnings.

What Management Said

CEO Fred K. Mistry characterized the results as exceeding the midpoint of guidance despite a difficult market. He reaffirmed full-year guidance and emphasized the resilience of demand for the company's luxury home brands and high-income customer base.

Market Reaction and What to Watch

Despite the earnings beat and reiterated full-year guidance, year-over-year softness in revenue and margins kept the after-hours reaction limited.

Whether Q4 delivery guidance of 3,450–3,550 homes and the average selling price target are achieved

Whether adjusted home gross margin approaches the full-year target of 26.1%

Whether net contract growth and selling community expansion continue