실적분석 2026년 8월 27일

Toronto Dominion Bank ($TD) Fiscal 2026 Q3 Earnings Analysis — Adjusted EPS and Revenue Both Beat Estimates

Earnings Scorecard

Revenue: $16.885 billion (fiscal 2026 Q3 reported total revenue, +10.4% year-over-year, vs. $14.969 billion estimate) ✅ Beat

EPS (Earnings Per Share): $2.77 (adjusted diluted, vs. $2.45 estimate) ✅ Beat

Guidance: Not provided — no forward quarterly or full-year revenue/EPS outlook. Only fiscal 2026 US anti-money-laundering (AML)-related cost outlook raised, to approximately $550 million (US, pre-tax) from a previous $500 million

Stock Reaction: +1.31% after-hours ($121) — as of 08-27 20:44 Korea Standard Time

Positives

Adjusted EPS beat: Adjusted diluted EPS of $2.77 exceeded the $2.45 estimate

Revenue beat by wide margin: Reported total revenue of $16.885 billion, +10.4% year-over-year

Wholesale banking surge: Wholesale banking net income of $743 million, +87% year-over-year

Canadian Personal & Commercial Banking and Wealth Management & Insurance also set quarterly records with net income of $2.095 billion (+7%) and $841 million (+20%), respectively. Net income attributable to common shareholders was $4.521 billion (fiscal 2026 Q3), and the common equity tier 1 (CET1) ratio stood at 14.3%, indicating ample capital cushion.

Negatives

AML cost raise: Fiscal 2026 US AML-related cost outlook raised to $550 million (US, pre-tax)

US banking profitability gap: US banking return on equity of 10.2% trails Canada's

Expense investment burden: Continued non-interest expense pressure from front-line staffing, artificial intelligence, and innovation investments

Results themselves beat expectations, but regulatory compliance costs were raised again, clouding full-year expense visibility. The US segment, despite improving loan and deposit margins, is recovering profitability more slowly than Canadian retail.

What Management Said

Management expressed confidence heading into the final quarter of the fiscal year, citing record earnings in Canadian businesses and wholesale banking along with a recovery underway in US banking. No revenue or EPS guidance was issued, and the market paired the strong underlying numbers with the raised US AML costs as a full-year expense risk.

Market Reaction and Key Points Ahead

The earnings and revenue surprise versus expectations fueled after-hours buying, but the raised regulatory costs appear to have capped the upside.

Watch whether net interest margins in Canada and the US expand modestly in Q4, as the company has indicated.

Monitor whether US AML-related costs are managed within the $550 million (US) outlook.

Assess whether the trading and fee momentum in wholesale banking sustains beyond a single quarter.