실적분석 2026년 8월 4일

Paramount Skydance ($PSKY) Q2 2026 Earnings Analysis — Revenue Slightly Beats, Full-Year Adjusted EBITDA Guidance Raised, Modest After-Hours Weakness

Earnings Scorecard

Revenue: $6.913 billion (YoY +1%, consensus $6.866 billion) ✅ Beat

EPS: GAAP diluted $0.04 (attributable to the parent) · Adjusted EPS not disclosed. Not directly comparable to consensus (adjusted) $0.18 due to differing bases

Guidance: Raised — Full-year 2026 adjusted EBITDA of $3.8–$3.9 billion (prior $3.8 billion), free cash flow conversion ratio of at least 10%

Stock Reaction: After-hours -0.84% ($8.31) — as of 08-05 06:09 KST

The Positives

Paramount+ Subscribers: Net adds of approximately 2 million in the quarter, reaching 81.6 million globally

Profitability Improvement: Adjusted EBITDA of approximately $1.10 billion (+27%), with profit growth across all segments

Full-Year Guidance Raised: Adjusted EBITDA of $3.8–$3.9 billion, free cash flow conversion ratio of at least 10%

Direct-to-consumer (DTC) was the centerpiece of the quarter. Paramount+ revenue climbed 16% year-over-year, and subscribers grew by approximately 2 million during the quarter to reach 81.6 million. The company stated that, driven by the combined impact of The Dutton Ranch, UFC, and non-exclusive FIFA World Cup broadcasting rights across six South American countries, the service posted its lowest churn quarter in its history (highest retention). On the advertising side, Paramount+ ad revenue grew more than 30%, confirming digital momentum.

Studio and TV Media also improved qualitatively. Studio revenue rose 16% to $1.31 billion, with adjusted EBITDA swinging from a year-ago loss to a $36 million profit. TV Media saw revenue decline 9%, but cost savings pushed adjusted EBITDA margin up from 26.4% to 34.0%. The company said it would lift its annualized run-rate efficiency target from $2.5 billion to more than $2.7 billion by year-end and raised its full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance to $3.8–$3.9 billion.

The Negatives

TV Media Revenue Decline: $3.128 billion, down 9% year-over-year

Weak GAAP Profit: Net income attributable to the parent of $41 million, diluted EPS of $0.04

Restructuring & Investment Costs: Approximately $200 million in restructuring costs in Q3, weighing on the full year at roughly $800 million

Beyond the growth narrative, structural burdens remain. TV Media advertising revenue fell 14% year-over-year, including the absence of last year's college basketball tournament ad boost and the impact of certain overseas asset divestitures. A 6% decline in affiliate revenue tied to shrinking pay-TV subscriber counts also continued. With linear broadcasting and cable still representing a meaningful dependency, top-line headwinds are likely to persist in the near term, even as efficiency efforts protect profits.

GAAP earnings quality also stands apart from the adjusted profit expectations the market typically tracks. Operating income of $475 million included $153 million in transaction-related costs, with net income attributable to the parent at just $41 million and diluted EPS at $0.04. Against $1.6 billion in cash, total debt stands at $15.2 billion, and once Warner Bros. Discovery merger-related advances, litigation, and restructuring costs are factored in, cash flow and the pace of cost execution are likely to remain a sensitive variable for the stock in the second half.

What Management Said

Chairman and CEO David Ellison, looking back on the first year since the launch of the Skydance regime, said the three priorities — investing in growth businesses, expanding direct-to-consumer, and company-wide efficiency — are showing up in the numbers. He explained that the company is increasing its theatrical slate while bolstering original and sports rights, and is transitioning TV Media into a structure where profit grows even as revenue declines. He also emphasized operational efficiencies, including unifying Paramount+ and Pluto TV onto a single technology platform and building internal systems powered by artificial intelligence.

The guidance tone leans confident. The company kept its full-year revenue tone of roughly $30 billion intact while raising adjusted EBITDA, and said it secured double-digit committed volume growth versus the prior year at the upfronts. On the Warner Bros. Discovery merger, it maintained confidence in closing based on approvals and the absence of objections across multiple jurisdictions, while drawing a clear line that executing the standalone strategy and delivering results will determine success or failure post-merger. That said, management also noted that Q3 DTC margin could land in the mid-to-high single digits due to content amortization timing, and that restructuring costs will weigh on free cash flow during the period.

Market Reaction and Key Items Ahead

A slight revenue beat and raised full-year profit guidance were constructive, but thin GAAP earnings and the absence of an adjusted EPS disclosure made it difficult for the market to read the results through its usual comparative framework. With TV Media's structural revenue decline, second-half concentration of content and restructuring investment, and the uncertainty surrounding a large merger's timeline all hanging over the print, the move is interpreted as a modest pullback in a wait-and-see tape rather than a full reflection of the positives. If the Skydance regime transition and the sports/original investment story were already largely priced in, the magnitude of the additional raise and the pace of cash conversion may have fallen short of expectations.

Confirm whether Q3 Paramount+ subscriber growth comes in roughly flat versus the prior quarter, in line with company guidance, and whether churn improvement continues.

Watch whether second-half digital ad acceleration and upfront commitments translate into actual revenue and margin.

Track the remaining regulatory and litigation calendar for the Warner Bros. Discovery merger, and assess the burden restructuring costs place on free cash flow.