실적분석 2026년 8월 12일

Pan American Silver ($PAAS) 2026 Q2 Earnings Analysis — Misses Earnings Consensus But Posts Record Shareholder Returns; Shares Edge Up After Hours

Results Scorecard

Revenue: $1.124 billion (2026 Q2; $1.27 billion on an attributable basis) — approximately 39% year-over-year growth, vs. consensus $1.141 billion ❌ Miss

EPS: Adjusted EPS $0.73 (2026 Q2; basic EPS under GAAP $0.72), vs. consensus $0.86 ❌ Miss

Guidance: Maintained — 2026 full-year silver production and silver segment all-in sustaining cost (AISC) guidance held. Gold production guided to the lower end of the annual range, gold segment AISC to the upper end, and cash taxes raised to $585–$635 million

Stock reaction: +0.70% after-hours ($52.74) — as of 06:00 KST, 08-13

Positives

Silver production at top end of guidance: Attributable silver production of 6.47 million ounces (2026 Q2) reached the top of the quarterly target range

Cash generation: Attributable free cash flow of $344 million (2026 Q2), the amount remaining after $205 million in tax payments

Record shareholder returns: $300 million (2026 Q2), combining dividends and share buybacks

Stable operations at the La Colorada and Huahui Sipyo mines supported silver production. Cash and equivalents stand at roughly $1.8 billion, and with the credit facility refinanced in July, total available liquidity is $3.2 billion. Management said it will continue channeling this capacity into growth projects such as La Colorada Skarn.

Negatives

Gold production shortfall: Attributable gold production of 165,900 ounces (2026 Q2) came in below the quarterly target range

Cost pressure: Silver segment AISC of $17.80 per ounce and gold segment AISC of $1,984 per ounce, both modestly above the target ranges

Rising tax burden: $179 million in income tax expense in Q2; full-year cash tax guidance raised to $585–$635 million

The main reason earnings missed was disruption in gold production. With metals prices higher, revenue rises, but royalties and labor costs rise in tandem, so the price uplift did not flow through to earnings. Management explained that production is back-loaded in the second half, particularly in Q4 — meaning target achievement depends heavily on year-end performance.

What the Company Said

Management emphasized cash generation and shareholder returns over the headline earnings beat, reiterated full-year production and cost guidance, and expressed confidence in a second-half recovery. The market appeared to weigh the "guidance maintained + record returns" message more heavily than the earnings miss.

Market Reaction and What to Watch

Despite the earnings miss, the stock held up because the shortfall was attributed to timing issues in gold production and full-year targets were kept intact.

Whether gold production actually recovers in the second half, particularly Q4, to fill even the lower end of the annual range

Whether silver and gold segment AISC return within the target ranges

Whether share buybacks continue at the current pace (7.3 million shares since the start of the year)