실적분석 2026년 8월 26일

HP ($HPQ) Fiscal 2026 Q3 Earnings Analysis — Beats on Revenue and Adjusted EPS, But Shares Drop Sharply After Hours Despite Guidance Raise

Earnings Scorecard

Revenue: $15.7 billion (+12.5% YoY, consensus $14.341 billion) ✅ Beat

EPS (Earnings Per Share): Adjusted diluted $0.83 (consensus $0.66, includes $0.11 tariff refund) ✅ Beat

Guidance: Raised — FY2026 adjusted diluted EPS $3.19–$3.29, free cash flow $3.0–$3.2 billion

Stock Reaction: After-hours −8.62% ($27.89) — as of 06:05 KST, August 27

What Went Well

Revenue beat: $15.7 billion, up 12.5% YoY, cleared expectations

Adjusted EPS surprise: $0.83 vs. $0.66 consensus, a meaningful upside beat

Full-year outlook raised: Lifted both adjusted EPS and free cash flow guidance

Personal Systems (consumer devices) drove topline growth by leaning further into commercial and premium mix. Management noted that the company has now cleared three quarters through a difficult cost environment and raised its full-year bar accordingly.

What Fell Short

Sharp PC shipment decline: Personal Systems unit shipments down 16% YoY

Tariff refund dependency: $0.11 included in both adjusted and GAAP diluted EPS

Printing in reverse: Printing revenue down 2% YoY, supplies down 3%

Units contracted while average selling price and mix propped up revenue. Tariff refunds are unlikely to recur, sharpening the market's focus on the quality of earnings.

What Management Said

The interim CEO highlighted premium product expansion and improving memory supply and shipment conditions as the drivers of the quarter. The CFO said Q3 revenue was an all-time quarterly high and EPS came in above the top end of guidance, framing that as the basis for raising the full-year outlook.

Market Reaction and What to Watch Next

Despite the beat, the combination of steep PC shipment declines and tariff-refund-laden earnings weighed on sentiment, triggering heavy selling after the close.

How resilient underlying earnings and margins (ex-tariff refund) prove in Q4

Whether memory cost pressure can be offset through price increases and premium mix

Whether commercial and AI PC demand can make up for the unit shipment declines