실적분석 2026년 8월 25일

Scotiabank ($BNS) Fiscal 2026 Q3 Earnings Analysis — Adjusted EPS and Revenue Both Beat Expectations

Earnings Scorecard

Revenue: CAD 10.535 billion (+11% YoY, vs. CAD 9.908 billion estimate) ✅ Beat

EPS: $2.28 (adjusted diluted, vs. $2.09 estimate) ✅ Beat

Guidance: Not provided — no specific revenue or EPS outlook figures

Stock Reaction: After-hours +2.01% ($88.61) — as of 20:29 KST, 08-25

The Positives

Capital Markets earnings +37%: $647 million in profit, with record-high underwriting and advisory fees

Return on Equity of 14.2%: On an adjusted basis, exceeds medium-term target (14%)

Canadian Banking +12%: $1.071 billion in profit, with margins expanding for the fifth consecutive quarter

All four business lines delivered in unison, with Capital Markets and Asset Management driving record quarterly earnings. The combination of margin expansion and fee growth pushed the bank past its medium-term profitability target this quarter.

The Negatives

Loan loss provisions up YoY: $1.079 billion in provisions for credit losses, an increase of $38 million from a year ago

Common Equity Tier 1 ratio declines: 13.1%, down 0.2 percentage points from the prior quarter

International Banking revenue declines: On a constant-currency basis, profit also fell 1% YoY

Credit costs were driven mainly by provisions against impaired loans. The capital ratio slipped versus the prior quarter due to the impact of asset growth and share buybacks. International Banking saw a modest profit decline once currency effects were stripped out, making the pace of revenue recovery the next key checkpoint.

What Management Said

CEO Scott Thomson characterized the quarter as a record for the bank, highlighting strength across all segments and the outperformance of medium-term targets. He pointed to margin and fee improvements as the drivers behind surpassing the 14% ROE goal.

Market Reaction and Forward Watchpoints

The combination of adjusted earnings and total revenue both coming in ahead of expectations, alongside balanced growth across all segments, fueled buying interest. The achievement of the medium-term profitability target is also being read as confirmation of execution capability.

Monitor whether provisions for credit losses rise again and track the impaired loan ratio trend.

Watch whether International Banking revenue and profit recover on a constant-currency basis.

Track whether the Common Equity Tier 1 ratio stabilizes amid ongoing share buybacks and asset growth.