실적분석 2026년 8월 13일

Credicorp ($BAP) Q2 2026 Earnings Analysis — Slight EPS and Revenue Miss; Mid-Term Profitability Target Raised, Yet Shares Slip After-Hours

Earnings Scorecard

Revenue: Approximately $1.827 billion (operating revenue of S/6.2311 billion, +12.7% year over year, versus the $1.849 billion expected) ❌ Miss

EPS (Earnings Per Share): Approximately $7.33 (S/25.0, +8.8% versus S/22.9 a year earlier, versus the $7.36 expected) ❌ Miss

Guidance: Maintained — 2026 return on equity target of around 19.5% reaffirmed (with an upward bias noted); mid-term target raised to roughly 22%

Stock Reaction: After-hours -1.80% ($368.38) — as of 05:58 Korea Standard Time on 08-14

Highlights

Loan Growth: Loan balances at quarter-end rose 13.1% year over year

Credit Quality Improvement: Non-performing loan ratio fell to 4.1%, down 0.91 percentage points from a year earlier

Mid-Term Target: Mid-term return on equity expectation raised to approximately 22%

Lending growth was led by the flagship banking and microfinance segments, while the deposit mix also shifted toward lower-cost funding, driving net interest income up 13.3% year over year. Yape, the digital payments and financial platform, also continued to scale up and monetize, supporting further revenue diversification.

Weak Spots

Below Expectations: Both EPS and operating revenue came in slightly below consensus

El Niño Provisions: An additional provision of approximately S/106 million related to El Niño-related risks

Insurance Weakness: Insurance underwriting results fell 17.9% year over year

Net income did increase on a year-over-year basis, but declined 3.9% versus the prior quarter, while the cost of risk rose to 1.9% reflecting the additional provisions. Insurance was a soft spot for the group, with both life and P&C businesses weighed down by claims and reinsurance pressures.

What Management Said

Management described it as another solid quarter, supported by a recovery in Peru's economic activity and private investment. The company kept its 2026 return on equity target of approximately 19.5%, while flagging an upward bias, and expressed confidence in reaching roughly 22% over the mid term.

Market Reaction and What to Watch Next

Selling pressure dominated after the close, as the modest miss, El Niño-related provisions, and the sequential decline in net income all weighed on sentiment.

How El Niño may further affect provisions and asset quality in the second half

Whether risk-adjusted net interest margins can hold up even as loan growth continues

Whether innovative businesses such as Yape can lift their contribution to earnings further