실적분석 2026년 8월 10일

Barrick Mining ($B) Q2 2026 Earnings Analysis — Revenue Beats Estimates, Adjusted EPS Slightly Misses; After-Hours Weakness

Earnings Scorecard

Revenue: $5.292 billion (+44% year-over-year, estimate $5.045 billion) ✅ Beat

EPS (Earnings Per Share): Adjusted $0.82 (estimate $0.83) ❌ Miss

Guidance: Maintained — 2026 full-year gold and copper production and cost outlook held; attributable capex lowered to $3.8–$4.2 billion

Stock Reaction: After-hours -4.61% ($41.67) — as of 08-10 20:45 Korea Standard Time

The Positives

Revenue Surprise: Q2 2026 revenue of $5.292 billion, up 44% year-over-year

Gold Production Above Guidance: Quarterly gold production of 796,000 ounces exceeded the high end of guidance (770,000 ounces)

Newmont Settlement & Shareholder Returns: $1.95 billion in cash to be received; approximately $1.21 billion in share buybacks during the quarter

Higher gold and copper prices, the early restart of Loulo-Gounkoto, the recovery of Pueblo Viejo, and expanded underground production at Cortez supported the results. The settlement with Newmont resolved the Nevada joint-venture dispute and secured approval for the North American gold asset spin-off, signaling structural improvement over the medium to long term.

The Negatives

Adjusted EPS Slightly Below Estimates: Adjusted EPS of $0.82 fell short of the $0.83 estimate

Decline in Attributable Free Cash Flow: Q2 2026 attributable free cash flow of $141 million, down from the prior-year period

Rising Costs: All-in sustaining cost per ounce of $1,866, up 11% year-over-year

Revenue exceeded expectations, but earnings came in just slightly below estimates, and quarterly cash generation weakened due to capex and share buybacks. Higher fuel costs and royalties, along with grade declines at some mines, added to the cost burden.

What Management Said

President and CEO Mark Hill explained that the settlement with Newmont secured approval for the North American gold asset spin-off and significantly expanded the Nevada asset base. He maintained the schedule to complete the North American gold asset spin-off by year-end, while stating that the company would focus in the second half on safety improvements, achieving annual production and cost guidance, and advancing growth projects.

Market Reaction and Key Points Ahead

After-hours selling pressure intensified as the slight adjusted EPS miss and weaker quarterly free cash flow took precedence over the positives of the revenue beat and the Newmont settlement.

Whether Q3 and Q4 gold production accelerates and full-year production and cost guidance is achieved

How specifically the schedule and terms of the North American gold asset spin-off are defined

The scale of additional shareholder returns following the $1.95 billion cash inflow from Newmont