실적분석 2026년 8월 13일

Applied Materials ($AMAT) Fiscal Q3 2026 Earnings Analysis — Revenue and Adjusted EPS Beat, Yet Shares Decline in Extended Trading

Earnings Scorecard

Revenue: $9.115 billion (up 25% year-over-year vs. $9.004 billion estimate) ✅ Beat

EPS: Adjusted diluted $3.50 (up 41% from $2.48 a year ago, vs. $3.39 estimate) ✅ Beat / GAAP diluted $3.17

Guidance: Newly issued — fiscal Q4 2026 revenue of $10.25 billion ± $500 million, adjusted diluted EPS of $4.02 ± $0.20 (calendar 2026 semiconductor equipment sales outlook raised)

Stock reaction: -3.66% after hours ($515) — as of 06:00 KST, 08-14

The Positives

Record revenue: $9.115 billion topped the $9.004 billion estimate, up 25% year-over-year

Adjusted EPS breakthrough: Diluted $3.50 exceeded the $3.39 estimate, up 41% year-over-year

Sustained margin gains: Adjusted gross margin of 50.4%, with gross margin expanding year-over-year for 13 consecutive quarters

Semiconductor equipment segment revenue jumped to $7.040 billion from $5.564 billion a year ago, and the DRAM share of the mix rose from 22% to 26%. Management cited AI demand as the basis for further raising its calendar 2026 semiconductor equipment sales outlook and expressed confidence in strong growth through 2027.

The Negatives

Shrinking China revenue mix: Fell to 28% of the total from 35% a year ago (absolute level roughly $2.548 billion vs. $2.506 billion)

Export-control settlement charge: A $253 million one-time cost from a settlement with the U.S. Department of Commerce was reflected in GAAP results

Strategic-investment valuation drag: Non-operating items including unrealized losses on strategic investments weighed on GAAP EPS

Even with record numbers, the stock sold off. With the strong results already largely priced in, the shift in the China mix and one-time charges muddied the "clean beat" narrative, prompting profit-taking.

What Management Said

The CEO said AI proliferation is driving demand for materials and process equipment, pointed to a higher calendar 2026 semiconductor equipment sales outlook, and stated the company will grow faster than the market. The CFO noted that gross margin expansion continues, emphasizing growth in the second half driven by DRAM, advanced foundry/logic, and advanced packaging, along with investments in long-term production capacity.

Market Reaction and Key Points Ahead

Despite the beat-and-raise, the sell-off appears to reflect already-elevated expectations compounded by a lower China mix and one-time charges.

We will watch whether fiscal Q4 actual revenue lands near the midpoint of guidance (around $10.25 billion).

We will track customer order flow to see whether DRAM, advanced foundry, and packaging orders support the guidance.

We will monitor whether the China revenue mix and absolute dollars decline further, and whether growth in the U.S., Korea, and Taiwan offsets it.