7월 28일 · 실적분석
실적분석
Alkermes ($ALKS) Q2 2026 Earnings Analysis — Revenue Beats Estimates at $496M; First Full Quarter of Lumryz Contribution; Full-Year Adjusted Earnings Outlook Maintained
ALKS Alkermes 실적 요약Alkermes ($ALKS) reported its Q2 2026 earnings before the market open on July 28. Revenue came in at $496 million, roughly 9% above the consensus estimate of $454.08 million and up 27% year over year from $390.66 million. The beat was driven by Lumryz, the narcolepsy treatment acquired through the February Avadel deal, which contributed its first full quarter of revenue at $96.6 million. GAAP net income was $500,000, with diluted EPS of $0.00, while adjusted EBITDA rose 10% year over year to $139.2 million. The company kept its full-year revenue and adjusted EBITDA guidance unchanged but widened its GAAP net loss guidance to reflect a contingent consideration revaluation loss tied to the acquisition. The company also announced a CEO transition effective August 1.
Earnings Scorecard
▸ Revenue: $496 million (+27% YoY, +9.2% vs. $454.08M estimate) ✅ Beat
▸ EPS (earnings per share): GAAP diluted $0.00 (net income $0.5M) — the company did not report an adjusted EPS figure, so a direct comparison against adjusted consensus is not possible
▸ Guidance: Maintained with partial reduction — full-year revenue of $1.73B to $1.84B and adjusted EBITDA of $370M to $410M held steady; GAAP net loss guidance widened from a loss of $70M to $90M to a loss of $95M to $115M
▸ Stock reaction: To be confirmed (premarket release, so premarket and regular-session moves await confirmation after the open)
The Positives
▸ Lumryz's first full quarter: The newly acquired narcolepsy drug delivered $96.6 million for the quarter, making it the main engine behind the 27% revenue growth
▸ Lybalvi double-digit growth: Revenue of $94 million (+12%), with total prescriptions up 18%
▸ Cash rebound: Cash and investments rose from $538.2 million to $691.6 million over three months
The defining feature of this quarter is that the company's profile has changed. Alkermes had been a neuroscience-focused pharma selling Vivitrol for alcohol and opioid dependence and Aristada and Lybalvi for schizophrenia and bipolar I disorder, but in February it acquired Avadel and picked up the narcolepsy drug Lumryz. In Q1, only about seven weeks of revenue since the deal close (February 12) were reflected, contributing $39.5 million, but in Q2 a full three months of $96.6 million was booked, instantly making it the company's third-largest product and putting it within $100,000 of second-place Aristada ($96.7 million). The company noted, however, that roughly $7 million of that came from a timing-related inventory effect.
Organic growth engines remain alive as well. Lybalvi's prescription volume grew faster (18%) than its revenue, which signals both heavier gross-to-net rebate pressure and a broadening real patient base. Vivitrol also edged up modestly to $124.5 million.
Among profitability metrics, the company highlights adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, amortization, stock-based compensation, and one-time costs), which rose 10% year over year to $139.2 million from $126.5 million. Even with $1.5 billion in new debt taken on to fund the acquisition, cash grew by more than $150 million, suggesting ample financial flexibility.
The Negatives
▸ Sharp drop in GAAP earnings: Net income fell from $87.1 million a year ago to $0.5 million, and EPS compressed from $0.52 to $0.00
▸ Cost surge: R&D +46% ($112.9 million), SG&A +27% ($217.6 million), and a new $25.9 million interest expense
▸ Aristada in reverse: Revenue of $96.7 million, down 4.5% YoY, with roughly $4 million of that attributable to a one-time rebate reversal
The most uncomfortable part of this report is that GAAP earnings effectively disappeared even as revenue grew 27%. The cause is largely the Avadel acquisition. Purchase-accounting inventory step-up to fair value charged to cost of goods sold ($31 million), intangible amortization ($22.6 million), contingent consideration revaluation loss ($26.4 million), and interest expense on acquisition financing all hit the income statement at once. On a first-half cumulative basis, the company posted a $66 million net loss. While many of these items are non-cash accounting charges, the interest expense is a real cash burden, which is worth distinguishing.
The legacy portfolio's strength is also no longer what it once was. Aristada declined year over year, and stripping out roughly $4 million of one-time rebate benefit called out by the company would make the decline even worse. The company's number-two product slot was barely held by $100,000 over Lumryz. Vivitrol also includes about $4 million of the same nature. Royalty and contract manufacturing revenue was flat at $84.3 million, leaving growth essentially dependent on Lumryz alone.
A notable point in the guidance is that the company did not raise its full-year revenue range. Even though first-half revenue of $888.9 million already exceeded half of the low end of the full-year range ($1.73 billion), the company kept the range intact, which can be read as not expecting the same acceleration in the second half.
What Management Said
"Q2 was marked by strong commercial execution and meaningful progress across the pipeline, and we continued to advance our strategic priorities." — Richard Pops, Chairman and CEO
"As we move into the second half, we have clear priorities and sharp focus on execution." — Blair Jackson, Chief Operating Officer
As significant as the results themselves was the CEO transition announced at the same time. Long-time leader Richard Pops will hand the CEO role to Chief Operating Officer Blair Jackson effective August 1, while remaining in the Chairman role at the board. This is not a sudden resignation but rather the execution of a succession plan announced back in February, so it should be viewed as a planned transition rather than a leadership vacuum.
Management's focus has already shifted from revenue to the pipeline. Both leaders pointed to the orexin-2 receptor agonist class as the company's next growth axis, a novel drug family that stimulates the brain's "wakefulness" switch. Jackson said the first data on the company's attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) candidate is expected within the next few months, with the alixorexton idiopathic hypersomnia Phase 2 results due around year-end. The fact that the company left its adjusted EBITDA guidance untouched and only widened its GAAP loss guidance can be read as a message that the acquisition-related accounting items are temporary and that core operating profitability is intact.
Market Reaction and Watchpoints Ahead
There are two things the market will want to confirm from this report. The first is that the deal has now proven itself in the numbers. Revenue came in 9% above estimates, and Lumryz delivered close to $100 million in its first full quarter. The second is that GAAP earnings were impaired as the price, which the company framed as one-time acquisition-related accounting costs while keeping adjusted full-year guidance unchanged. In the end, the read on this quarter will hinge on which set of numbers investors treat as authoritative.
On top of that, Alkermes's stock has historically reacted more to clinical news than to earnings. The May announcement of Lumryz's positive Phase 3 in idiopathic hypersomnia, for example, drove a one-day move of more than 10%. As such, the upcoming clinical data calendar through year-end is likely to set the stock's direction more than this print itself.
▸ Whether Lumryz's underlying demand, stripping out roughly $7 million of inventory effect, holds up in Q3
▸ Whether Aristada's revenue decline is temporary or the start of a structural share-loss trend
▸ Whether the gap between Lybalvi's prescription growth (18%) and revenue growth (12%) widens further
▸ The upcoming ADHD data for ALKS 7290 within the next few months and the year-end alixorexton idiopathic hypersomnia Phase 2 readout
▸ The priorities the incoming CEO outlines in second-half strategy once he takes over on August 1
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