실적분석 2026년 8월 19일

Alvotech ($ALVO) Q2 2026 Earnings Analysis — Slight Revenue Miss, Full-Year Guidance Maintained

Earnings Scorecard

Revenue: $106 million (Q2, calculated as H1 minus Q1; approximately -39% year over year; estimate $107 million) ❌ Miss

EPS: Adjusted EPS not disclosed (IFRS H1 basic -$0.22) · Estimate -$0.08 · Different basis, not directly comparable

Guidance: Maintained · 2026 revenue $650 million–$700 million, adjusted EBITDA $180 million–$220 million (same as Q1)

Stock reaction: After-hours +4.01% ($4.15) — as of 08-20 05:59 Korea Standard Time

Positives

Resubmitted filings: U.S. applications for Simponi and Eylea biosimilars resubmitted, targeting Q4 decisions

Production normalization: Management stated manufacturing returned to planned levels by the end of Q2

Capital & guidance: Total equity issuance of approximately $165 million; full-year revenue and profit outlook maintained

Factory improvements weighed on first-half results, but the FDA resubmissions, production recovery, and capital raise are providing a tailwind for the second half. A partner's Prolia and Xgeva biosimilar resubmissions are also tied to the same approval window.

Negatives

Total revenue decline: First-half total revenue declined year over year (decline rate and absolute figure pending official confirmation)

Lower adjusted profit: First-half adjusted EBITDA $42.7 million (vs. $53.7 million prior year)

Cash outflow: First-half net cash outflow from operating activities of $80.2 million

The first-half loss of $65.8 million (IFRS) and the ongoing debt and interest burden persist. Meeting guidance will require second-half product shipment recovery to align with the milestone schedule.

What Management Said

Management explained that manufacturing improvements pressured first-half revenue and adjusted EBITDA, while emphasizing that production returned to planned levels by the end of Q2. Full-year revenue and adjusted EBITDA guidance were left unchanged, with the focus placed on second-half performance improvement and the Q4 approval timeline.

Market Reaction and Key Watch Items

The reaction appears to weigh first-half product revenue weakness against production normalization, resubmitted filings, maintained guidance, and strengthened capital position as a package.

How the FDA concludes the Q4 reviews of the Simponi, Eylea, and Prolia biosimilar resubmissions

Whether product shipments and inventory from Q3 onward align with the guidance trajectory

How much operating cash flow absorbs the interest burden