TBF 주가 전망 및 ETF 분석 - 배당·운용보수·보유종목·NAV·RSI·MACD

TBF

ProShares Short 20+ Year Treasury -1x Shares

7월 28일 4:00 PM ET (한국 7/29 05:00)

$24.85

-0.17 ▼ -0.68%

🌙 7월 28일 7:44 PM ET (한국 7/29 08:44)

$24.85

+0.00 +0.00%

TBF ETF is analyzed across 10 metrics including expense ratio, holdings, sector allocation, dividends, RSI, and MACD.

Total Expense Ratio

0.95%

Annual operating cost

Net Assets (AUM)

$101M

약 1387억원

Holdings

11 items

Dividend Yield

2.72%

Management Style

Passive

Category ⓘ	Bonds - Leveraged / Inverse	Asset Type ⓘ	Bonds	Return% 1Y ⓘ	3.64%	Total Holdings ⓘ	11	Perf Week ⓘ	-0.68%
ETF Type ⓘ	US Bonds	Active/Passive ⓘ	Passive	Return% 3Y ⓘ	8.45%	AUM ⓘ	$101M	Perf Month ⓘ	3.8%
Expense ⓘ	0.95%	NAV ⓘ	$24.99	Return% 5Y ⓘ	12.45%	52W High ⓘ	-2.18%	Perf Quarter ⓘ	1.93%
Dividend TTM ⓘ	$0.68 (2.72%)	Div Gr. 3/5Y ⓘ	115.09% 87.73%	Return% 10Y ⓘ	3.47%	52W Low ⓘ	8%	Perf Half Y ⓘ	4.06%
Flows% 1M ⓘ	12.96%	Flows% YTD ⓘ	48.6%	Return% SI ⓘ	-2.95%	Volatility(W/M) ⓘ	0.41% 0.47%	Perf YTD ⓘ	3.03%
SMA20 ⓘ	0.31%	SMA50 ⓘ	0.81%	SMA200 ⓘ	3.02%	RSI (14) ⓘ	53.92	Beta ⓘ	-0.52
IPO ⓘ	2009/8/20	Prev Close ⓘ	$25.02	Perf Year ⓘ	-0.12%	Avg Volume ⓘ	0.22M	Price ⓘ	$24.85

📊 ProShares Short 20+ Year Treasury -1x Shares (TBF) Investment Analysis

ETF Overview

ProShares Short 20+ Year Treasury -1x Shares · Bonds - Leveraged / Inverse

인버스형 — 지수 하락에 베팅 (단기 헤지용 · 고위험)

2009년 상장, 17년 운영 중.

ProShares Short 20+ Year Treasury는 수수료 및 비용 차감 전 기준으로 ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond 지수 일간 성과의 인버스(-1x)에 해당하는 일간 투자 성과를 목표로 합니다. 만기가 20년 이상인 미국 장기 국채 가격의 하락으로부터 수익을 얻고자 하는 비분산형(Non-diversified) 펀드입니다.

📘 TBF ETF 자세히 알아보기 →

U.S.treasuriesbondsinverse

규모: $101M 약 1387억원
운용사: ProShares
운용 방식: 패시브 (지수 추종)
상장일: 2009년

Cost Efficiency

Annual Expense Ratio · Category Rank · Long-Term Cost Impact

Low-cost ETF — 0.95% annually

상위 25% within Bonds - Leveraged / Inverse. For a ₩100M investment, roughly ₩950,000/year.

Effective Annual Expense Ratio (Net Expense Ratio)

상위 25%

0.95%

My positionTop 25%

Low range Average High range

Actual Cost Simulation by Investment Amount

$100.0M

Annual Expense Ratio

$950K

Same as category average

Category Median Annual Cost

$950K

Based on expense ratio of 0.95%

10-Year Cumulative Expense Ratio (Long-term simulation assuming 7% annual market growth)

$16.8M

17.4% of returns you could have earned goes to the fund manager due to fees

💡 Because the expense ratio takes a slice of your assets every year, costs compound over 10 years and result in far greater losses than a simple sum (annual fee × 10). The 7% annual return assumption is based on the S&P 500's long-term average.

Defaults shown against $100K baseline portfolio. Adjust the slider to update the amount in real time.

Cheaper alternatives in the same category

TMF

Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares

0.90%

-0.05%p annually

TBT

PowerShares UltraShort Lehman 20+ Year Treasury ProShares 2x Shares

0.93%

-0.02%p annually

* A lower fee does not necessarily mean a better ETF. Consider the tracked index, liquidity, and tax treatment as well.

Long-Term Performance

1-year · 3-year · 5-year · 10-year returns · vs. benchmark · drawdown defense

Upper-tier returns in its category

상위 25% within 전체 ETF.-14.1%p vs. benchmark (SPY) over 1Y.

ℹ️ The "1Y·3Y·5Y·10Y" periods below represent annualized returns (CAGR) measured backward from today. Example: "3Y +12%" means the investment grew at a compounded 12% per year over the past three years.

↩️ Inverse ETF — for short-term hedging only

These products bet on declines in the underlying index. By construction, "if the index rises, the ETF falls," so it is not unusual to see a negative annualized return (−). The daily reset mechanism causes significant compounding decay over longer holding periods. Long-term holding is not recommended outside of hedging or short-term trading purposes.

If you had invested 10 year(s) ago

$100.0M

Today's value

$140.7M

→

Total gain

+$40.7M

Annualized +3.5%

1 Year

2025.07 ~ 2026.07

Annualized +3.64%

하위 25%

Trailed the benchmark by 14.1%p annually

My positionBottom 25%

Low range Average High range

3 Years

2023.07 ~ 2026.07

Annualized +8.45% Cumulative +27.6%

평균권

Trailed the benchmark by 10.8%p annually

My positionMid-range

Low range Average High range

5 Years

2021.07 ~ 2026.07

Annualized +12.45% Cumulative +79.8%

상위 25%

Trailed the benchmark by 0.8%p annually

My positionTop 25%

Low range Average High range

10Y

2016.07 ~ 2026.07

Annualized +3.47% Cumulative +40.7%

평균권

Trailed the benchmark by 11.5%p annually

My positionMid-range

Low range Average High range

10Y Cumulative Total Return Curve

2016-07-29 start, based on a 100M KRW base — read the curve values directly as units of 100M KRW (e.g., 308 → 3.08억 / 308M KRW). Both this ETF and the benchmark are rebased to 100 on the same start date for comparison.

TBF · Price Only TBF · Price + Cumulative Dividends TBF · Dividend Reinvested S&P 500 (SPY)

150

250

350

450

ℹ️ Price Only: Excludes dividends and tracks pure stock price only. Covered-call and high-dividend ETFs often show a flat or declining line on this view, which is meaningful from a "principal preservation" standpoint. Price + Cumulative Dividend: Share count stays the same and received dividends are accumulated as cash. Closely matches your actual account total assets. Reinvested: Dividends are immediately used to buy additional shares (adjClose-based, the industry standard for total return). The wider the gap between the three lines, the easier it is to gauge the effectiveness of the dividend strategy.

Annual Return Comparison

ETF returns vs S&P 500 (SPY) by calendar year

TBF S&P 500 (SPY)

+40%

−40%

-8%

2017

+2%

2018

-11%

2019

-18%

2020

+1%

2021

+38%

2022

+4%

2023

+16%

2024

+2%

2025

+3%

2026 YTD

💡 Inverse ETFs are the mirror image — positive returns in years the benchmark falls, losses in years it rises.

ℹ️ Returns from January 1 to December 31 of each year. The current year (2026) column is dimmed to indicate YTD (incomplete). If blue is higher than gray, the ETF outperformed the benchmark in that year.

Win rate vs S&P 500 (SPY)

2 / 9Y

Lags behind benchmark (22%)

+ 2026 YTD: Behind (3.3% vs 8.7%)

2017 ✗

2018 ✓

2019 ✗

2020 ✗

2021 ✗

2022 ✓

2023 ✗

2024 ✗

2025 ✗

2026 ✗ YTD

💡 Inverses only win in down years — not suitable as a long-term win-rate metric.

ℹ️ Number of winning years versus S&P 500 (SPY) within a completed calendar year (1/1–12/31). The current year (YTD) is reported separately.

Downside Capture

🛡️ -28%

Falls less than the benchmark in drawdowns — strong downside protection

<85% (Defend) 85~110% (Track) >110% (Lag)

💡 Inverses rise when the benchmark falls and fall when it rises — the usual interpretation of this metric is reversed.

ℹ️ Average % drop of this ETF when S&P 500 (SPY) is −1%. Based on daily returns over the past 3 years (only days where the benchmark is negative).

Risk Profile

Volatility · Beta · Max Drawdown · Sharpe · Drawdown Recovery History

Overall Risk Grade

High Risk

These products move opposite to the market. The longer you hold them, the more losses accumulate over time, making them suitable only for short-term hedging.

↩️ Inverse ETFs — Negative Beta is normal

Because they move opposite to the index, a negative Beta or one near −1 is expected. Volatility is similar to the underlying index. These are intended for short-term hedging and are unsuitable for long-term holding.

Beta (market sensitivity)

상위 5%

-0.52

If the market rises +10% -5.2%

If the market falls -10% +5.2%

My positionTop 5%

Low range Average High range

ℹ️ A beta of 1.0 moves in line with the market. Above 1 means it moves more than the market; below 1 means less.

Average daily range (last 1 month)

평균권

±0.47%

S&P 500 typically ±1.0~1.3% · Bond funds ±0.3% · Leveraged ETFs ±3% or more

Annual volatility trend (past 10 years)

ℹ️ This ETF's average daily price swing. 1% means "on average, moves about ±1% per day." The rolling curve below shows the annualized volatility (long-term standard measure) over time.

Max Drawdown · Past 10 years

-40.9%

Drawdown duration: 59 months

2015-09-16 → 2020-08-04

Recovered in about 3.1 years

2015-08-03 Worst -40% 2026-07-01

ℹ️ Maximum drawdown is the largest peak-to-trough decline in the past. It represents the worst-case loss a long-term investor must psychologically endure.

Sharpe Ratio (Risk-Adjusted Return)

-0.10

Poor — Underperforms the risk-free rate

ℹ️ Annualized return minus the risk-free rate (3% annualized), divided by annualized volatility. A value above 1.0 is generally considered good risk-adjusted performance.

Estimated Monthly Maximum Loss (VaR 95%)

-6.2%

Historically, monthly losses exceeding this figure occurred only5%of the time.

ℹ️ A statistical estimate meaning "with 95% probability, monthly losses will not exceed this amount." The remaining 5% corresponds to crisis-level events such as financial crises or pandemics.

Dividend Analysis

Yield · Dividend history · After-tax income calculator

Inverse ETF distribution — 2.72% annually

This product is designed for directional hedging and has little to do with dividend income.5-year dividend growth rate: +87.7%.

ℹ️ Inverse ETFs are not designed for dividend income, and even when they pay distributions, structural decay can offset them.

배당수익률

2.72%

주당 배당

$0.68

연간 기준

5년 성장률

87.7%

지급 주기

분기배당

3월 · 9월 · 12월

📊 총 이력 2018~2026 (22건)

연도별 배당 총액 추이

주당 배당금을 연 단위로 합산한 금액입니다. 막대가 우상향이면 매년 배당이 늘어나고 있다는 뜻입니다.

$0.20

2018

$0.33 +68.4%

2019

$0.04 -89.4%

2020

$0.08 +134.3%

2022

$1.10 +1245.1%

2023

$1.00 -9.3%

2024

$0.82 -18.4%

2025

$X.XX 그 해 총 배당금 +X% 전년 대비 증가 -X% 감소

최근 배당 이력 총 22건

아래로 스크롤하면 과거 배당 이력을 볼 수 있습니다.

배당락일

주당 금액

지급일

당시 수익률

2026-03-25

$0.093

—

3.75%

2025-12-24

$0.217

—

3.42%

2025-09-24

$0.215

—

4.67%

2025-06-25

$0.173

—

4.97%

2025-03-26

$0.211

—

4.32%

2024-12-23

$0.261

—

4.08%

2024-09-25

$0.252

—

5.13%

2024-06-26

$0.314

—

4.71%

2024-03-20

$0.173

—

5.41%

2023-12-20

$0.398

—

5.41%

2023-09-20

$0.216

—

3.29%

2023-06-21

$0.284

—

2.65%

2023-03-22

$0.205

—

1.36%

2022-12-22

$0.082

—

0.38%

2020-03-25

$0.035

—

1.88%

2019-12-24

$0.075

—

2.15%

2019-09-25

$0.092

—

2.18%

2019-06-25

$0.095

—

1.58%

2019-03-20

$0.068

—

1.19%

2018-12-26

$0.087

—

0.86%

2018-09-26

$0.072

—

0.47%

2018-06-20

$0.037

—

0.16%

* "배당락일"은 배당받으려면 이 날 이전에 주식을 보유해야 하는 기준일입니다. 지급일·당시 수익률은 일부 종목에서 데이터가 없을 수 있습니다.

💰 내가 $100K 투자한다면

연간 배당금 (세후) $2K

5년 누적 (세후) $59K

* 환율 1 가정, 배당소득세 15% 반영. 5년 누적은 배당 성장률 연 87.73% 가정.

* Qualified dividend middle-bracket approximation. Actual rate varies by total income.

Overall investment appeal

What this ETF fits best — strengths, weaknesses, and target investor profile

Designed for short-term trading Not recommended for long-term investing, but suitable for short-term trading and hedging.

⚠️ Short-term hedge that moves opposite to the market. Time decay causes losses to accumulate on long holds.

🎯 목적별 적합도

내가 이 ETF를 어떤 목적으로 활용할 수 있는지 확인하세요.

🌳

장기 보유

수년 이상 꾸준히 모아갈 때

매우 낮음

💵

배당 인컴

매월·분기 현금흐름이 목적일 때

부적합

⚡

단기 트레이딩

며칠~몇 주 단기 방향성 매매

매우 적합

🧩

포트폴리오 보조

자산 배분·헤지 용도

매우 낮음

👤

이런 분에게 어울려요

For short-term hedging and downside bets

✅ 강점

💸Low cost — 0.95% annually
📈Top-tier long-term returns

⚠️ 약점·주의사항

🔄Inverse — time decay losses accumulate the longer you hold

Portfolio Composition

What's actually inside — sector weights and top holdings

파생상품 기반 ETF

실제 보유 종목이 일반 ETF와 다르게 스왑·선물 중심이에요.

ℹ️ 왜 구성을 봐야 하나요?

ETF의 실제 성과는 담고 있는 종목과 섹터에서 나와요. 이름이 "S&P 500"이라도 기술주 비중이 유난히 높을 수 있고, "배당주 ETF"라도 몇몇 대형주에 쏠려 있을 수 있어요. 라벨보다 실제 구성을 확인하는 게 중요해요.

🔬 집중도 한눈에 보기

총 보유종목

17개

상위 10개 비중

94.7%

최대 단일 종목

81.11%

집중도(HHI)

6609

높음 (집중)

⚠️ 소수 종목·섹터에 집중되어 있어, 해당 종목/섹터가 흔들리면 ETF 전체가 크게 영향을 받아요.

🥧 섹터 비중

Financial

81.1%

📋 상위 보유 종목 Top 10 Top 10이 전체의 94.7% 차지

티커 옆의 점 색상 = 섹터 구분 (섹터 차트와 동일 색상)

IQMM ProShares GENIUS Money Market ETF

81.11%

#2 - Repurchase Agreement

4.09%

#3 - Repurchase Agreement

2.03%

#4 - Repurchase Agreement

2.03%

#5 - Repurchase Agreement

1.22%

#6 - Repurchase Agreement

1.22%

#7 - Repurchase Agreement

1.01%

#8 - Repurchase Agreement

0.81%

#9 - Repurchase Agreement

0.81%

#10 - Repurchase Agreement

0.41%

Category Peers

Category: Bonds - Leveraged / Inverse

같은 카테고리 6종 중 AUM 3/6위 · 보수율 2/6위

카테고리: Bonds - Leveraged / Inverse

ℹ️ 왜 비교해야 하나요?

같은 카테고리 ETF끼리는 보수율·규모(AUM)·배당률을 비교해 볼 가치가 있어요. 보수율은 낮을수록 장기 수익에 유리하고, AUM이 크면 운용 안정성이 높아요. ▲ 표시는 TBF보다 유리, ▼ 표시는 TBF보다 불리를 뜻해요.

티커	ETF명	보수율	AUM	보유종목	배당률	YTD	1년
TBF	ProShares Short 20+ Year Treasury -1x Shares	0.95%	$101M	11	2.72%	+3.03%	-0.12%
TBT	PowerShares UltraShort Lehman 20+ Year Treasury ProShares 2x Shares	0.93% ▲	$300M ▲	11	2.65% ▼	-	-1.11% ▼
TMV	Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bear -3X Shares	0.97% ▼	$179M ▲	10	2.40% ▼	-	-0.02% ▲
SJB	ProShares Short High Yield -1x Shares	0.95%	$50M ▼	7	3.58% ▲	-	-2.75% ▼
TBX	ProShares Short 7-10 Year Treasury -1x Shares	0.95%	$20M ▼	6	2.23% ▼	-	+0.89% ▲
TTT	ProShares UltraPro Short 20+ Year Treasury -3x Shares	0.95%	$18M ▼	11	1.94% ▼	-	-2.00% ▼

AUM 내림차순 정렬 · ▲ TBF보다 유리 · ▼ TBF보다 불리

Leveraged & Covered Call ETFs on the Same Theme

ETFs that approach the same theme with a different strategy

16 ETFs tracking the same theme as TBF using leveraged or covered call strategies (Leverage 6 · Inverse 6 · Covered Call 4)

Not direct derivatives of TBF, but ETFs that cover the same theme via a different strategy.

ℹ️ Which ETFs are included?

Among ETFs whose theme (category or sector) overlaps with TBF, some use special strategies. Leveraged ETFs aim for 2–3× the daily move, Inverse ETFs seek opposite-direction returns, and Covered Call ETFs generate monthly income from option premiums.

⚠️ Caution: Long-Term Holding

Leveraged and inverse ETFs track only the daily return. With high volatility, holding them for longer periods causes cumulative volatility decay—returns diverge further from the underlying index. They are meant for short-term trading.

📈 Leverage 6 ETFs that amplify the same theme by 2-3x (high volatility)

TMF

Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares

+1.61%

$2.3B