SWAN 주가 전망 및 ETF 분석 - 배당·운용보수·보유종목·NAV·RSI·MACD

SWAN

Amplify BlackSwan Growth & Treasury Core ETF

7월 28일 3:46 PM ET (한국 7/29 04:46)

$32.79

+0.12 ▲ +0.38%

🌙 7월 28일 7:34 PM ET (한국 7/29 08:34)

$32.79

+0.00 +0.00%

SWAN ETF is analyzed across 10 metrics including expense ratio, holdings, sector allocation, dividends, RSI, and MACD.

Total Expense Ratio

0.49%

Annual operating cost

Net Assets (AUM)

$156M

약 2144억원

Holdings

13 items

Dividend Yield

3.24%

Management Style

Passive

Category ⓘ	Target Date / Multi-Asset - Other	Asset Type ⓘ	Multi-Asset - Conservative	Return% 1Y ⓘ	9.64%	Total Holdings ⓘ	13	Perf Week ⓘ	-0.82%
ETF Type ⓘ	US Diversified	Active/Passive ⓘ	Passive	Return% 3Y ⓘ	11.13%	AUM ⓘ	$156M	Perf Month ⓘ	-1.83%
Expense ⓘ	0.49%	NAV ⓘ	$32.67	Return% 5Y ⓘ	2.29%	52W High ⓘ	-4.15%	Perf Quarter ⓘ	-0.26%
Dividend TTM ⓘ	$1.06 (3.24%)	Div Gr. 3/5Y ⓘ	21.53% 53.47%	Return% 10Y ⓘ	-	52W Low ⓘ	7.68%	Perf Half Y ⓘ	0.41%
Flows% 1M ⓘ	-0.62%	Flows% YTD ⓘ	-58.36%	Return% SI ⓘ	6.64%	Volatility(W/M) ⓘ	0.49% 0.76%	Perf YTD ⓘ	0.98%
SMA20 ⓘ	-0.81%	SMA50 ⓘ	-1.6%	SMA200 ⓘ	0.26%	RSI (14) ⓘ	43.38	Beta ⓘ	0.76
IPO ⓘ	2018/11/6	Prev Close ⓘ	$32.67	Perf Year ⓘ	6.29%	Avg Volume ⓘ	0.05M	Price ⓘ	$32.79

📊 Amplify BlackSwan Growth & Treasury Core ETF (SWAN) Investment Analysis

ETF Overview

Amplify BlackSwan Growth & Treasury Core ETF · Target Date / Multi-Asset - Other

채권형 — 채권 ETF (만기 미상)

2018년 상장, 8년 운영 중.

Amplify BlackSwan Growth & Treasury Core ETF는 수수료 및 비용 차감 전 기준으로 S-Network BlackSwan Core Total Return 지수의 성과를 추종하고자 합니다. 미국 국채와 S&P 500 ETF(SPY)의 장기 콜 옵션(LEAPS)을 결합하여 운영하며, 예측 불가능한 시장 폭락(블랙 스완)으로부터 자본을 보호하면서 주가 상승 참여를 목표로 합니다.

📘 SWAN ETF 자세히 알아보기 →

U.S.bondstreasuriesoptions

규모: $156M 약 2144억원
운용사: Amplify
운용 방식: 패시브 (지수 추종)
상장일: 2018년

Cost Efficiency

Annual Expense Ratio · Category Rank · Long-Term Cost Impact

Low-cost ETF — 0.49% annually

상위 25% within Target Date / Multi-Asset - Other. For a ₩100M investment, roughly ₩490,000/year.

Effective Annual Expense Ratio (Net Expense Ratio)

상위 25%

0.49%

My positionTop 25%

Low range Average High range

Actual Cost Simulation by Investment Amount

$100.0M

Annual Expense Ratio

$490K

Save $330K per year vs. category average

Category Median Annual Cost

$820K

Based on expense ratio of 0.82%

10-Year Cumulative Expense Ratio (Long-term simulation assuming 7% annual market growth)

$8.8M

9.1% of returns you could have earned goes to the fund manager due to fees

💡 Because the expense ratio takes a slice of your assets every year, costs compound over 10 years and result in far greater losses than a simple sum (annual fee × 10). The 7% annual return assumption is based on the S&P 500's long-term average.

Defaults shown against $100K baseline portfolio. Adjust the slider to update the amount in real time.

Cheaper alternatives in the same category

CTAP

Simplify US Equity PLUS Managed Futures Strategy ETF

0.10%

-0.39%p annually

ITDC

iShares LifePath Target Date 2035 ETF

0.10%

-0.39%p annually

ITDD

iShares LifePath Target Date 2040 ETF

0.11%

-0.38%p annually

* A lower fee does not necessarily mean a better ETF. Consider the tracked index, liquidity, and tax treatment as well.

Long-Term Performance

1-year · 3-year · 5-year · 10-year returns · vs. benchmark · drawdown defense

Returns slightly below average

하위 25% vs. Target Date / Multi-Asset - Other.-8.1%p vs. benchmark (SPY) over 1Y.

ℹ️ The "1Y·3Y·5Y·10Y" periods below represent annualized returns (CAGR) measured backward from today. Example: "3Y +12%" means the investment grew at a compounded 12% per year over the past three years.

If you had invested 5 year(s) ago

$100.0M

Today's value

$112.0M

→

Total gain

+$12.0M

Annualized +2.3%

ℹ️ How to read the return breakdown bar

Each period bar shows the share of this ETF's returns by source.

Price gains Price decline Dividends received

Mostly blue (80%+): Growth-style — price gains drive most returns
Mostly orange (70%+): Income-style — dividends drive most returns (watch out for after-tax drag)
Red + orange: Stagnant or declining price — dividends offset losses (common in covered-call and high-dividend funds)

1 Year

2025.07 ~ 2026.07

Annualized +9.64%

평균권

Price +6.29% + Dividend +3.35% = Total +9.64%/yr

Trailed the benchmark by 8.1%p annually

My positionMid-range

Low range Average High range

3 Years

2023.07 ~ 2026.07

Annualized +11.13% Cumulative +37.2%

평균권

Price +7.94% + Dividend +3.19% = Total +11.13%/yr

Trailed the benchmark by 8.1%p annually

My positionMid-range

Low range Average High range

5 Years

2021.07 ~ 2026.07

Annualized +2.29% Cumulative +12.0%

하위 25%

Price -0.55% + Dividend +2.84% = Total +2.29%/yr

Trailed the benchmark by 10.9%p annually

My positionBottom 25%

Low range Average High range

10Y

2016.07 ~ 2026.07

Listed 2018/11 — under 10 years

8Y Cumulative Total Return Curve

2018-11-06 start, based on a 100M KRW base — read the curve values directly as units of 100M KRW (e.g., 308 → 3.08억 / 308M KRW). Both this ETF and the benchmark are rebased to 100 on the same start date for comparison.

SWAN · Price Only SWAN · Price + Cumulative Dividends SWAN · Dividend Reinvested S&P 500 (SPY)

150

250

350

ℹ️ Price Only: Excludes dividends and tracks pure stock price only. Covered-call and high-dividend ETFs often show a flat or declining line on this view, which is meaningful from a "principal preservation" standpoint. Price + Cumulative Dividend: Share count stays the same and received dividends are accumulated as cash. Closely matches your actual account total assets. Reinvested: Dividends are immediately used to buy additional shares (adjClose-based, the industry standard for total return). The wider the gap between the three lines, the easier it is to gauge the effectiveness of the dividend strategy.

Annual Return Comparison

ETF returns vs S&P 500 (SPY) by calendar year

SWAN S&P 500 (SPY)

+40%

−40%

-2%

2018

+22%

2019

+15%

2020

+11%

2021

-27%

2022

+11%

2023

+14%

2024

+14%

2025

+2%

2026 YTD

💡 SPY is an equity benchmark, so direct comparison with different asset classes is for reference only.

ℹ️ Returns from January 1 to December 31 of each year. The current year (2026) column is dimmed to indicate YTD (incomplete). If blue is higher than gray, the ETF outperformed the benchmark in that year.

Win rate vs S&P 500 (SPY)

1 / 8Y

Lags behind benchmark (13%)

+ 2026 YTD: Behind (1.9% vs 8.7%)

2018 ✓

2019 ✗

2020 ✗

2021 ✗

2022 ✗

2023 ✗

2024 ✗

2025 ✗

2026 ✗ YTD

💡 Win rates against SPY are for reference only, since the asset class differs.

ℹ️ Number of winning years versus S&P 500 (SPY) within a completed calendar year (1/1–12/31). The current year (YTD) is reported separately.

Downside Capture

🛡️ 73%

Falls less than the benchmark in drawdowns — strong downside protection

<85% (Defend) 85~110% (Track) >110% (Lag)

💡 Bonds often show negative correlation with equities, limiting how this metric should be interpreted.

ℹ️ Average % drop of this ETF when S&P 500 (SPY) is −1%. Based on daily returns over the past 3 years (only days where the benchmark is negative).

Risk Profile

Volatility · Beta · Max Drawdown · Sharpe · Drawdown Recovery History

Overall Risk Grade

Bond Benchmark

Bond ETFs are naturally less volatile than stocks, so it only makes sense to compare them with other bond ETFs. You should also factor in the inverse relationship between interest rates and bond prices.

🏦 Bond ETFs — Low volatility and low Beta are the norm

Bonds have far lower volatility than stocks, and a lower Beta versus equity benchmarks. An "stable" rating is the natural result; meaningful comparison should be made against bond indices (e.g., AGG/TLT).

Beta (market sensitivity)

평균권

0.76

If the market rises +10% +7.6%

If the market falls -10% -7.6%

My positionMid-range

Low range Average High range

ℹ️ A beta of 1.0 moves in line with the market. Above 1 means it moves more than the market; below 1 means less.

Average daily range (last 1 month)

평균권

±0.76%

S&P 500 typically ±1.0~1.3% · Bond funds ±0.3% · Leveraged ETFs ±3% or more

Annual volatility trend (past 10 years)

ℹ️ This ETF's average daily price swing. 1% means "on average, moves about ±1% per day." The rolling curve below shows the annualized volatility (long-term standard measure) over time.

Max Drawdown · Past 10 years

-31.0%

Drawdown duration: 24 months

2021-11-09 → 2023-10-27

Recovered in about 1.9 years

2018-11-06 Worst -30% 2026-07-01

ℹ️ Maximum drawdown is the largest peak-to-trough decline in the past. It represents the worst-case loss a long-term investor must psychologically endure.

Sharpe Ratio (Risk-Adjusted Return)

0.28

Weak — Low risk-adjusted returns

ℹ️ Annualized return minus the risk-free rate (3% annualized), divided by annualized volatility. A value above 1.0 is generally considered good risk-adjusted performance.

Estimated Monthly Maximum Loss (VaR 95%)

-5.4%

Historically, monthly losses exceeding this figure occurred only5%of the time.

ℹ️ A statistical estimate meaning "with 95% probability, monthly losses will not exceed this amount." The remaining 5% corresponds to crisis-level events such as financial crises or pandemics.

Dividend Analysis

Yield · Dividend history · After-tax income calculator

Bond distribution — 3.24% annually

Coupon interest is the primary source.5-year dividend growth rate: +53.5%.

ℹ️ Bond ETF distributions are mostly coupon income. Distributions may rise when interest rates increase, but this should be considered alongside the resulting price decline.

배당수익률

3.24%

주당 배당

$1.06

연간 기준

5년 성장률

53.5%

지급 주기

분기배당

3월 · 9월 · 12월

📊 총 이력 2018~2026 (30건)

연도별 배당 총액 추이

주당 배당금을 연 단위로 합산한 금액입니다. 막대가 우상향이면 매년 배당이 늘어나고 있다는 뜻입니다.

$0.07

2018

$1.06 +1393.0%

2019

$0.54 -49.2%

2020

$1.74 +222.8%

2021

$0.52 -70.3%

2022

$0.79 +52.8%

2023

$0.75 -5.7%

2024

$0.93 +24.6%

2025

$X.XX 그 해 총 배당금 +X% 전년 대비 증가 -X% 감소

최근 배당 이력 총 30건

아래로 스크롤하면 과거 배당 이력을 볼 수 있습니다.

배당락일

주당 금액

지급일

당시 수익률

2026-03-30

$0.240

—

3.10%

2025-12-30

$0.235

—

3.51%

2025-09-29

$0.233

—

2.83%

2025-06-27

$0.237

—

3.34%

2025-03-28

$0.223

—

2.71%

2024-12-30

$0.215

—

2.52%

2024-09-27

$0.146

—

2.43%

2024-06-27

$0.193

—

3.42%

2024-03-26

$0.191

—

3.54%

2023-12-27

$0.208

—

3.65%

2023-09-27

$0.189

—

3.97%

2023-06-28

$0.195

—

3.32%

2023-03-29

$0.198

—

2.85%

2022-12-28

$0.184

—

9.01%

2022-09-28

$0.177

—

8.12%

2022-06-28

$0.096

—

7.07%

2022-03-29

$0.060

—

5.72%

2021-12-29

$1.68

—

6.29%

2021-09-28

$0.039

—

1.45%

2021-06-28

$0.019

—

1.36%

2021-03-29

$0.007

—

1.48%

2020-12-29

$0.429

—

3.95%

2020-09-28

$0.007

—

2.71%

2020-06-26

$0.029

—

3.42%

2020-03-27

$0.074

—

3.94%

2019-12-30

$0.752

—

3.68%

2019-09-27

$0.078

—

1.34%

2019-06-27

$0.109

—

1.10%

2019-03-28

$0.121

—

0.73%

2018-12-28

$0.071

—

0.29%

* "배당락일"은 배당받으려면 이 날 이전에 주식을 보유해야 하는 기준일입니다. 지급일·당시 수익률은 일부 종목에서 데이터가 없을 수 있습니다.

💰 내가 $100K 투자한다면

연간 배당금 (세후) $3K

5년 누적 (세후) $39K

* 환율 1 가정, 배당소득세 15% 반영. 5년 누적은 배당 성장률 연 53.47% 가정.

* Qualified dividend middle-bracket approximation. Actual rate varies by total income.

Overall investment appeal

What this ETF fits best — strengths, weaknesses, and target investor profile

Strengths and weaknesses both present Check the fit below to see whether it matches your investing goal.

🎯 목적별 적합도

내가 이 ETF를 어떤 목적으로 활용할 수 있는지 확인하세요.

🌳

장기 보유

수년 이상 꾸준히 모아갈 때

보통

💵

배당 인컴

매월·분기 현금흐름이 목적일 때

적합

⚡

단기 트레이딩

며칠~몇 주 단기 방향성 매매

매우 낮음

🧩

포트폴리오 보조

자산 배분·헤지 용도

매우 적합

👤

이런 분에게 어울려요

Investors seeking portfolio stability

✅ 강점

💸Low cost — 0.49% annually

⚠️ 약점·주의사항

📈Long-term returns trail the average
🎯Trails benchmark by -10.9%p annually

Portfolio Composition

What's actually inside — sector weights and top holdings

채권 포트폴리오

주식과 달리 "섹터 = 만기·신용등급"으로 해석해야 해요.

ℹ️ 왜 구성을 봐야 하나요?

ETF의 실제 성과는 담고 있는 종목과 섹터에서 나와요. 이름이 "S&P 500"이라도 기술주 비중이 유난히 높을 수 있고, "배당주 ETF"라도 몇몇 대형주에 쏠려 있을 수 있어요. 라벨보다 실제 구성을 확인하는 게 중요해요.

🔬 집중도 한눈에 보기

총 보유종목

5개

상위 10개 비중

100.0%

최대 단일 종목

95.13%

집중도(HHI)

9074

높음 (집중)

⚠️ 소수 종목·섹터에 집중되어 있어, 해당 종목/섹터가 흔들리면 ETF 전체가 크게 영향을 받아요.

🥧 섹터 비중

Healthcare

0.0%

📋 상위 보유 종목 Top 10 Top 10이 전체의 100.0% 차지

티커 옆의 점 색상 = 섹터 구분 (섹터 차트와 동일 색상)

#1 - TREASURY BILL

95.13%

#2 - U.S. Bank Money Market Deposit Account

4.88%

#3 PFE Pfizer Inc

0.02%

#4 - Roche Holding AG

0.00%

#5 - ABIOMED INC

Category Peers

Category: Target Date / Multi-Asset - Other

같은 카테고리 6종 중 AUM 1/6위 · 보수율 4/6위

카테고리: Target Date / Multi-Asset - Other

ℹ️ 왜 비교해야 하나요?

같은 카테고리 ETF끼리는 보수율·규모(AUM)·배당률을 비교해 볼 가치가 있어요. 보수율은 낮을수록 장기 수익에 유리하고, AUM이 크면 운용 안정성이 높아요. ▲ 표시는 SWAN보다 유리, ▼ 표시는 SWAN보다 불리를 뜻해요.

티커	ETF명	보수율	AUM	보유종목	배당률	YTD	1년
SWAN	Amplify BlackSwan Growth & Treasury Core ETF	0.49%	$156M	13	3.24%	+0.98%	+6.29%
FIAX	Nicholas Fixed Income Alternative ETF	0.97% ▼	$129M ▼	10	8.20% ▲	-	-3.64% ▼
SPLS	PIMCO US Stocks PLUS Active Bond ETF	0.18% ▲	$44M ▼	18	0.56% ▼	-	-
BFIX	Build Bond Innovation ETF	0.45% ▲	$14M ▼	111	3.58% ▲	-	-0.48% ▼
GDT	WisdomTree Efficient TIPS Plus Gold Fund	0.2% ▲	$10M ▼	1	2.77% ▼	-	-
AETH	Bitwise Trendwise Ether and Treasuries Rotation Strategy ETF	0.89% ▼	$5M ▼	4	2.78% ▼	-	-39.55% ▼

AUM 내림차순 정렬 · ▲ SWAN보다 유리 · ▼ SWAN보다 불리

Leveraged & Covered Call ETFs on the Same Theme

ETFs that approach the same theme with a different strategy

18 ETFs tracking the same theme as SWAN using leveraged or covered call strategies (Leverage 5 · Inverse 7 · Covered Call 6)

Not direct derivatives of SWAN, but ETFs that cover the same theme via a different strategy.

ℹ️ Which ETFs are included?

Among ETFs whose theme (category or sector) overlaps with SWAN, some use special strategies. Leveraged ETFs aim for 2–3× the daily move, Inverse ETFs seek opposite-direction returns, and Covered Call ETFs generate monthly income from option premiums.

⚠️ Caution: Long-Term Holding

Leveraged and inverse ETFs track only the daily return. With high volatility, holding them for longer periods causes cumulative volatility decay—returns diverge further from the underlying index. They are meant for short-term trading.

📈 Leverage 5 ETFs that amplify the same theme by 2-3x (high volatility)