HCMT 주가 전망 및 ETF 분석 - 배당·운용보수·보유종목·NAV·RSI·MACD

HCMT

Direxion HCM Tactical Enhanced US ETF

7월 28일 1:30 PM ET (한국 7/29 02:30)

$38.12

-0.09 ▼ -0.23%

HCMT ETF is analyzed across 10 metrics including expense ratio, holdings, sector allocation, dividends, RSI, and MACD.

Total Expense Ratio

1.18%

Annual operating cost

Net Assets (AUM)

$565M

약 7734억원

Holdings

510 items

Dividend Yield

0.62%

Management Style

Active

Category ⓘ	US Equities - Quant Strat	Asset Type ⓘ	Equities (Stocks)	Return% 1Y ⓘ	13.74%	Total Holdings ⓘ	510	Perf Week ⓘ	-2.21%
ETF Type ⓘ	US Equities	Active/Passive ⓘ	Active	Return% 3Y ⓘ	12.93%	AUM ⓘ	$565M	Perf Month ⓘ	-4.72%
Expense ⓘ	1.18%	NAV ⓘ	$38.27	Return% 5Y ⓘ	-	52W High ⓘ	-11.74%	Perf Quarter ⓘ	3.56%
Dividend TTM ⓘ	$0.24 (0.62%)	Div Gr. 3/5Y ⓘ	-	Return% 10Y ⓘ	-	52W Low ⓘ	17.15%	Perf Half Y ⓘ	-2.85%
Flows% 1M ⓘ	-0.53%	Flows% YTD ⓘ	-1.97%	Return% SI ⓘ	15.76%	Volatility(W/M) ⓘ	1.65% 2.2%	Perf YTD ⓘ	-1.14%
SMA20 ⓘ	-4.95%	SMA50 ⓘ	-6.15%	SMA200 ⓘ	-1.16%	RSI (14) ⓘ	39.74	Beta ⓘ	1.64
IPO ⓘ	2023/6/22	Prev Close ⓘ	$38.21	Perf Year ⓘ	11.55%	Avg Volume ⓘ	0.05M	Price ⓘ	$38.12

📊 Direxion HCM Tactical Enhanced US ETF (HCMT) Investment Analysis

ETF Overview

Direxion HCM Tactical Enhanced US ETF · US Equities - Quant Strat

액티브 운용 — 펀드매니저가 종목을 선별해 초과수익 추구

2023년 상장, 3년 운영 중.

Direxion HCM Tactical Enhanced U.S. Equity Strategy ETF는 자본 증식을 목표로 하는 액티브 운용 ETF입니다. 여러 시장 주기 동안 미국 주식 시장과 광범위하게 연계된 강화된 수익을 제공하고자 노력하며, 시장 상승기에는 미국 주식에 투자하고 하락기에는 자본 보존을 위해 현금 또는 현금성 자산으로 비중을 조절하는 비분산형(Non-diversified) 펀드입니다.

📘 HCMT ETF 자세히 알아보기 →

U.S.equitytactical

규모: $565M 약 7734억원
운용사: Direxion
운용 방식: 액티브 (운용사 재량)
상장일: 2023년

Cost Efficiency

Annual Expense Ratio · Category Rank · Long-Term Cost Impact

High-cost ETF — 1.18% annually

Costs are notably higher than the category average. Long-term holdings can erode returns.

Effective Annual Expense Ratio (Net Expense Ratio)

하위 5%

1.18%

My positionBottom 5%

Low range Average High range

Actual Cost Simulation by Investment Amount

$100.0M

Annual Expense Ratio

$1.2M

Pay $390K more per year vs. category average

Category Median Annual Cost

$790K

Based on expense ratio of 0.79%

10-Year Cumulative Expense Ratio (Long-term simulation assuming 7% annual market growth)

$20.6M

21.3% of returns you could have earned goes to the fund manager due to fees

💡 Because the expense ratio takes a slice of your assets every year, costs compound over 10 years and result in far greater losses than a simple sum (annual fee × 10). The 7% annual return assumption is based on the S&P 500's long-term average.

Defaults shown against $100K baseline portfolio. Adjust the slider to update the amount in real time.

Cheaper alternatives in the same category

CBOX

Calamos Tax-Aware Collateral ETF

0.14%

-1.04%p annually

XBOX

Roundhill Ultra Short Duration No Dividend Target ETF

0.14%

-1.04%p annually

SELV

SEI QiM U.S. Large Cap Low Volatility Active ETF

0.15%

-1.03%p annually

* A lower fee does not necessarily mean a better ETF. Consider the tracked index, liquidity, and tax treatment as well.

Long-Term Performance

1-year · 3-year · 5-year · 10-year returns · vs. benchmark · drawdown defense

Insufficient return data

-4.1%p vs. benchmark (SPY) over 1Y.

ℹ️ The "1Y·3Y·5Y·10Y" periods below represent annualized returns (CAGR) measured backward from today. Example: "3Y +12%" means the investment grew at a compounded 12% per year over the past three years.

If you had invested 3 year(s) ago

$100.0M

Today's value

$144.0M

→

Total gain

+$44.0M

Annualized +12.9%

1 Year

2025.07 ~ 2026.07

Annualized +13.74%

평균권

Trailed the benchmark by 4.1%p annually

My positionMid-range

Low range Average High range

3 Years

2023.07 ~ 2026.07

Annualized +12.93% Cumulative +44.0%

평균권

Trailed the benchmark by 6.1%p annually

My positionMid-range

Low range Average High range

5 Years

2021.07 ~ 2026.07

Listed 2023/6 — under 5 years

10Y

2016.07 ~ 2026.07

Listed 2023/6 — under 10 years

3Y Cumulative Total Return Curve

2023-06-22 start, based on a 100M KRW base — read the curve values directly as units of 100M KRW (e.g., 308 → 3.08억 / 308M KRW). Both this ETF and the benchmark are rebased to 100 on the same start date for comparison.

HCMT · Price Only HCMT · Price + Cumulative Dividends HCMT · Dividend Reinvested S&P 500 (SPY)

100

150

200

ℹ️ Price Only: Excludes dividends and tracks pure stock price only. Covered-call and high-dividend ETFs often show a flat or declining line on this view, which is meaningful from a "principal preservation" standpoint. Price + Cumulative Dividend: Share count stays the same and received dividends are accumulated as cash. Closely matches your actual account total assets. Reinvested: Dividends are immediately used to buy additional shares (adjClose-based, the industry standard for total return). The wider the gap between the three lines, the easier it is to gauge the effectiveness of the dividend strategy.

Annual Return Comparison

ETF returns vs S&P 500 (SPY) by calendar year

HCMT S&P 500 (SPY)

+50%

−50%

+6%

2023

+43%

2024

+6%

2025

-1%

2026 YTD

ℹ️ Returns from January 1 to December 31 of each year. The current year (2026) column is dimmed to indicate YTD (incomplete). If blue is higher than gray, the ETF outperformed the benchmark in that year.

Win rate vs S&P 500 (SPY)

1 / 3Y

Lags behind benchmark (33%)

+ 2026 YTD: Behind (-0.9% vs 8.5%)

2023 ✗

2024 ✓

2025 ✗

2026 ✗ YTD

ℹ️ Number of winning years versus S&P 500 (SPY) within a completed calendar year (1/1–12/31). The current year (YTD) is reported separately.

Downside Capture

⚠️ 212%

Falls more than the benchmark — vulnerable in drawdowns

<85% (Defend) 85~110% (Track) >110% (Lag)

ℹ️ Average % drop of this ETF when S&P 500 (SPY) is −1%. Based on daily returns over the past 3 years (only days where the benchmark is negative).

Risk Profile

Volatility · Beta · Max Drawdown · Sharpe · Drawdown Recovery History

Overall Risk Grade

Moderate Risk

Volatility is around market average. Be prepared for losses of roughly -30% to -40% in major downturns.

Beta (market sensitivity)

하위 5%

1.64

If the market rises +10% +16.4%

If the market falls -10% -16.4%

My positionBottom 5%

Low range Average High range

ℹ️ A beta of 1.0 moves in line with the market. Above 1 means it moves more than the market; below 1 means less.

Average daily range (last 1 month)

하위 5%

±2.20%

S&P 500 typically ±1.0~1.3% · Bond funds ±0.3% · Leveraged ETFs ±3% or more

Annual volatility trend (past 10 years)

ℹ️ This ETF's average daily price swing. 1% means "on average, moves about ±1% per day." The rolling curve below shows the annualized volatility (long-term standard measure) over time.

Max Drawdown · Past 10 years

-36.3%

Drawdown duration: 2 months

2025-02-19 → 2025-04-21

Recovered in about 6 months

2023-06-22 Worst -32% 2026-07-01

ℹ️ Maximum drawdown is the largest peak-to-trough decline in the past. It represents the worst-case loss a long-term investor must psychologically endure.

Sharpe Ratio (Risk-Adjusted Return)

0.43

Weak — Low risk-adjusted returns

ℹ️ Annualized return minus the risk-free rate (3% annualized), divided by annualized volatility. A value above 1.0 is generally considered good risk-adjusted performance.

Estimated Monthly Maximum Loss (VaR 95%)

-10.9%

Historically, monthly losses exceeding this figure occurred only5%of the time.

ℹ️ A statistical estimate meaning "with 95% probability, monthly losses will not exceed this amount." The remaining 5% corresponds to crisis-level events such as financial crises or pandemics.

Dividend Analysis

Yield · Dividend history · After-tax income calculator

Pays dividends, but at a relatively low rate — 0.62% annually

Closer to a blend of growth and dividends.

배당수익률

0.62%

주당 배당

$0.24

연간 기준

5년 성장률

지급 주기

분기배당

3월 · 9월 · 12월

📊 총 이력 2023~2026 (12건)

연도별 배당 총액 추이

주당 배당금을 연 단위로 합산한 금액입니다. 막대가 우상향이면 매년 배당이 늘어나고 있다는 뜻입니다.

—

2021

—

2022

$0.17

2023

$0.99 +488.2%

2024

$0.17 -83.2%

2025

$X.XX 그 해 총 배당금 +X% 전년 대비 증가 -X% 감소

최근 배당 이력 총 12건

아래로 스크롤하면 과거 배당 이력을 볼 수 있습니다.

배당락일

주당 금액

지급일

당시 수익률

2026-03-24

$0.056

—

0.63%

2025-12-23

$0.009

—

0.59%

2025-09-23

$0.042

—

2.79%

2025-06-24

$0.052

—

3.37%

2025-03-25

$0.064

—

3.07%

2024-12-23

$0.065

—

2.65%

2024-12-12

$0.751

—

2.70%

2024-09-24

$0.064

—

0.81%

2024-06-25

$0.062

—

0.83%

2024-03-19

$0.052

—

0.73%

2023-12-21

$0.105

—

0.64%

2023-09-19

$0.064

—

0.25%

* "배당락일"은 배당받으려면 이 날 이전에 주식을 보유해야 하는 기준일입니다. 지급일·당시 수익률은 일부 종목에서 데이터가 없을 수 있습니다.

💰 내가 $100K 투자한다면

연간 배당금 (세후) $535

5년 누적 (세후) $3K

* 환율 1 가정, 배당소득세 15% 반영. 5년 누적은 배당 성장률 연 0% 가정.

* Qualified dividend middle-bracket approximation. Actual rate varies by total income.

Overall investment appeal

What this ETF fits best — strengths, weaknesses, and target investor profile

Warrants a closer look Several metrics show warning signs. Compare it with similar ETFs before deciding.

🎯 목적별 적합도

내가 이 ETF를 어떤 목적으로 활용할 수 있는지 확인하세요.

🌳

장기 보유

수년 이상 꾸준히 모아갈 때

낮음

💵

배당 인컴

매월·분기 현금흐름이 목적일 때

매우 낮음

⚡

단기 트레이딩

며칠~몇 주 단기 방향성 매매

낮음

🧩

포트폴리오 보조

자산 배분·헤지 용도

낮음

👤

이런 분에게 어울려요

Investors who believe in active strategies

✅ 강점

뚜렷한 강점이 드러나지 않아요.

⚠️ 약점·주의사항

💸Very high expense ratio — 1.18% annually
⚠️Very high volatility — invest only with capital you can hold for the long term
🎯Trails benchmark by -4.1%p annually

Portfolio Composition

What's actually inside — sector weights and top holdings

상위 10종목이 73% 차지

소수 종목에 집중돼 개별 종목 변동에 크게 영향을 받을 수 있어요.

ℹ️ 왜 구성을 봐야 하나요?

ETF의 실제 성과는 담고 있는 종목과 섹터에서 나와요. 이름이 "S&P 500"이라도 기술주 비중이 유난히 높을 수 있고, "배당주 ETF"라도 몇몇 대형주에 쏠려 있을 수 있어요. 라벨보다 실제 구성을 확인하는 게 중요해요.

🔬 집중도 한눈에 보기

총 보유종목

508개

상위 10개 비중

73.2%

최대 단일 종목

41.53%

집중도(HHI)

1952

높음 (집중)

⚠️ 소수 종목·섹터에 집중되어 있어, 해당 종목/섹터가 흔들리면 ETF 전체가 크게 영향을 받아요.

🥧 섹터 비중

Financial

16.8%

Technology

14.0%

Communication Services

4.3%

Consumer Cyclical

3.8%

Industrials

3.1%

Healthcare

2.8%

Consumer Defensive

1.4%

Utilities

0.9%

Energy

0.8%

Real Estate

0.8%

Basic Materials

0.6%

📋 상위 보유 종목 Top 10 Top 10이 전체의 73.2% 차지

티커 옆의 점 색상 = 섹터 구분 (섹터 차트와 동일 색상)

#1 - DREYFUS GOVERNMENT CASH MANAGE

41.53%

GTOP GOLDMAN SACHS LIQ ES FD A

12.89%

#3 - DREYFUS

4.97%

#4 NVDA NVIDIA Corp.

3.13%

#5 AAPL Apple Inc.

2.57%

#6 MSFT Microsoft Corp.

1.95%

#7 - N/A

1.77%

#8 AMZN Amazon.com, Inc.

1.67%

#9 GOOGL Alphabet Inc.

1.44%

#10 AVGO Broadcom Inc

1.28%

Category Peers

Category: US Equities - Quant Strat

같은 카테고리 6종 중 AUM 6/6위 · 보수율 6/6위

카테고리: US Equities - Quant Strat

ℹ️ 왜 비교해야 하나요?

같은 카테고리 ETF끼리는 보수율·규모(AUM)·배당률을 비교해 볼 가치가 있어요. 보수율은 낮을수록 장기 수익에 유리하고, AUM이 크면 운용 안정성이 높아요. ▲ 표시는 HCMT보다 유리, ▼ 표시는 HCMT보다 불리를 뜻해요.

티커	ETF명	보수율	AUM	보유종목	배당률	YTD	1년
HCMT	Direxion HCM Tactical Enhanced US ETF	1.18%	$565M	510	0.62%	-1.14%	+11.55%
HELO	JPMorgan Hedged Equity Laddered Overlay ETF	0.5% ▲	$4.5B ▲	163	0.64% ▲	-	+6.61% ▼
CBOX	Calamos Tax-Aware Collateral ETF	0.14% ▲	$1.2B ▲	4	-	-	-
FHEQ	Fidelity Hedged Equity ETF	0.48% ▲	$912M ▲	192	0.55% ▼	-	+12.66% ▲
INFO	Harbor PanAgora Dynamic Large Cap Core ETF	0.35% ▲	$829M ▲	146	0.32% ▼	-	+20.94% ▲
CAOS	Alpha Architect Tail Risk ETF	0.63% ▲	$719M ▲	11	-	-	+1.96% ▼