SPDN 주가 전망 및 ETF 분석 - 배당·운용보수·보유종목·NAV·RSI·MACD

SPDN

Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 1X ETF

7월 28일 4:00 PM ET (한국 7/29 05:00)

$8.78

-0.02 ▼ -0.23%

🌙 7월 28일 4:15 PM ET (한국 7/29 05:15)

$8.78

+0.00 +0.00%

SPDN ETF is analyzed across 10 metrics including expense ratio, holdings, sector allocation, dividends, RSI, and MACD.

Total Expense Ratio

0.48%

Annual operating cost

Net Assets (AUM)

$209M

약 2859억원

Holdings

6 items

Dividend Yield

3.31%

Management Style

Passive

Category ⓘ	Equity - Leveraged / Inverse	Asset Type ⓘ	Equities (Stocks)	Return% 1Y ⓘ	-10.05%	Total Holdings ⓘ	6	Perf Week ⓘ	1.04%
ETF Type ⓘ	US Equities	Active/Passive ⓘ	Passive	Return% 3Y ⓘ	-10.63%	AUM ⓘ	$209M	Perf Month ⓘ	-1.01%
Expense ⓘ	0.48%	NAV ⓘ	$8.80	Return% 5Y ⓘ	-8.22%	52W High ⓘ	-15.17%	Perf Quarter ⓘ	-3.2%
Dividend TTM ⓘ	$0.29 (3.31%)	Div Gr. 3/5Y ⓘ	34.33% 84.33%	Return% 10Y ⓘ	-12.08%	52W Low ⓘ	2.33%	Perf Half Y ⓘ	-5.89%
Flows% 1M ⓘ	-4.25%	Flows% YTD ⓘ	18.17%	Return% SI ⓘ	-12.13%	Volatility(W/M) ⓘ	0.93% 0.97%	Perf YTD ⓘ	-6.89%
SMA20 ⓘ	0.98%	SMA50 ⓘ	0.52%	SMA200 ⓘ	-5.4%	RSI (14) ⓘ	53.8	Beta ⓘ	-0.98
IPO ⓘ	2016/6/8	Prev Close ⓘ	$8.8	Perf Year ⓘ	-12.72%	Avg Volume ⓘ	46.78M	Price ⓘ	$8.78

📊 Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 1X ETF (SPDN) Investment Analysis

ETF Overview

Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 1X ETF · Equity - Leveraged / Inverse

인버스형 — 지수 하락에 베팅 (단기 헤지용 · 고위험)

2016년 상장, 10년 운영 중.

Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 1X ETF는 수수료 및 비용 차감 전 기준으로 S&P 500 지수 일간 성과의 인버스(-100%)에 해당하는 일간 투자 성과를 목표로 합니다. 미국 대형주 500개 기업의 일간 하락으로부터 수익을 얻고자 하는 파생 상품 조합에 투자하는 비분산형(Non-diversified) 펀드입니다.

📘 SPDN ETF 자세히 알아보기 →

U.S.equitySP500inverse

규모: $209M 약 2859억원
운용사: Direxion
운용 방식: 패시브 (지수 추종)
상장일: 2016년

Cost Efficiency

Annual Expense Ratio · Category Rank · Long-Term Cost Impact

Low-cost ETF — 0.48% annually

상위 25% within Equity - Leveraged / Inverse. For a ₩100M investment, roughly ₩480,000/year.

Effective Annual Expense Ratio (Net Expense Ratio)

상위 25%

0.48%

My positionTop 25%

Low range Average High range

Actual Cost Simulation by Investment Amount

$100.0M

Annual Expense Ratio

$480K

Save $490K per year vs. category average

Category Median Annual Cost

$970K

Based on expense ratio of 0.97%

10-Year Cumulative Expense Ratio (Long-term simulation assuming 7% annual market growth)

$8.6M

8.9% of returns you could have earned goes to the fund manager due to fees

💡 Because the expense ratio takes a slice of your assets every year, costs compound over 10 years and result in far greater losses than a simple sum (annual fee × 10). The 7% annual return assumption is based on the S&P 500's long-term average.

Defaults shown against $100K baseline portfolio. Adjust the slider to update the amount in real time.

Cheaper alternatives in the same category

TOPW

Roundhill Top WeeklyPay ETF

0.32%

-0.16%p annually

FNGU

MicroSectors FANG+ 3X Leveraged ETNs

0.35%

-0.13%p annually

* A lower fee does not necessarily mean a better ETF. Consider the tracked index, liquidity, and tax treatment as well.

Long-Term Performance

1-year · 3-year · 5-year · 10-year returns · vs. benchmark · drawdown defense

Average long-term returns

Near the Equity - Leveraged / Inverse median.-27.8%p vs. benchmark (SPY) over 1Y.

ℹ️ The "1Y·3Y·5Y·10Y" periods below represent annualized returns (CAGR) measured backward from today. Example: "3Y +12%" means the investment grew at a compounded 12% per year over the past three years.

↩️ Inverse ETF — for short-term hedging only

These products bet on declines in the underlying index. By construction, "if the index rises, the ETF falls," so it is not unusual to see a negative annualized return (−). The daily reset mechanism causes significant compounding decay over longer holding periods. Long-term holding is not recommended outside of hedging or short-term trading purposes.

If you had invested 10 year(s) ago

$100.0M

Today's value

$27.6M

→

Total loss

$-72,402,052

Annualized -12.1%

ℹ️ How to read the return breakdown bar

Each period bar shows the share of this ETF's returns by source.

Price gains Price decline Dividends received

Mostly blue (80%+): Growth-style — price gains drive most returns
Mostly orange (70%+): Income-style — dividends drive most returns (watch out for after-tax drag)
Red + orange: Stagnant or declining price — dividends offset losses (common in covered-call and high-dividend funds)

1 Year

2025.07 ~ 2026.07

Annualized -10.05%

평균권

Price -12.72% + Dividend +2.67% = Total -10.05%/yr

Trailed the benchmark by 27.8%p annually

My positionMid-range

Low range Average High range

3 Years

2023.07 ~ 2026.07

Annualized -10.63% Cumulative -28.6%

평균권

Price -14.28% + Dividend +3.65% = Total -10.63%/yr

Trailed the benchmark by 29.9%p annually

My positionMid-range

Low range Average High range

5 Years

2021.07 ~ 2026.07

Annualized -8.22% Cumulative -34.9%

평균권

Price -10.66% + Dividend +2.44% = Total -8.22%/yr

Trailed the benchmark by 21.4%p annually

My positionMid-range

Low range Average High range

10Y

2016.07 ~ 2026.07

Annualized -12.08% Cumulative -72.4%

평균권

Price -13.80% + Dividend +1.72% = Total -12.08%/yr

Trailed the benchmark by 27.0%p annually

My positionMid-range

Low range Average High range

10Y Cumulative Total Return Curve

2016-07-28 start, based on a 100M KRW base — read the curve values directly as units of 100M KRW (e.g., 308 → 3.08억 / 308M KRW). Both this ETF and the benchmark are rebased to 100 on the same start date for comparison.

SPDN · Price Only SPDN · Price + Cumulative Dividends SPDN · Dividend Reinvested S&P 500 (SPY)

150

300

450

ℹ️ Price Only: Excludes dividends and tracks pure stock price only. Covered-call and high-dividend ETFs often show a flat or declining line on this view, which is meaningful from a "principal preservation" standpoint. Price + Cumulative Dividend: Share count stays the same and received dividends are accumulated as cash. Closely matches your actual account total assets. Reinvested: Dividends are immediately used to buy additional shares (adjClose-based, the industry standard for total return). The wider the gap between the three lines, the easier it is to gauge the effectiveness of the dividend strategy.

Annual Return Comparison

ETF returns vs S&P 500 (SPY) by calendar year

SPDN S&P 500 (SPY)

+40%

−40%

-16%

2017

+6%

2018

-22%

2019

-24%

2020

-25%

2021

+19%

2022

-15%

2023

-13%

2024

-11%

2025

-6%

2026 YTD

💡 Inverse ETFs are the mirror image — positive returns in years the benchmark falls, losses in years it rises.

ℹ️ Returns from January 1 to December 31 of each year. The current year (2026) column is dimmed to indicate YTD (incomplete). If blue is higher than gray, the ETF outperformed the benchmark in that year.

Win rate vs S&P 500 (SPY)

2 / 9Y

Lags behind benchmark (22%)

+ 2026 YTD: Behind (-6.4% vs 8.7%)

2017 ✗

2018 ✓

2019 ✗

2020 ✗

2021 ✗

2022 ✓

2023 ✗

2024 ✗

2025 ✗

2026 ✗ YTD

💡 Inverses only win in down years — not suitable as a long-term win-rate metric.

ℹ️ Number of winning years versus S&P 500 (SPY) within a completed calendar year (1/1–12/31). The current year (YTD) is reported separately.

Downside Capture

🛡️ -105%

Falls less than the benchmark in drawdowns — strong downside protection

<85% (Defend) 85~110% (Track) >110% (Lag)

💡 Inverses rise when the benchmark falls and fall when it rises — the usual interpretation of this metric is reversed.

ℹ️ Average % drop of this ETF when S&P 500 (SPY) is −1%. Based on daily returns over the past 3 years (only days where the benchmark is negative).

Risk Profile

Volatility · Beta · Max Drawdown · Sharpe · Drawdown Recovery History

Overall Risk Grade

High Risk

These products move opposite to the market. The longer you hold them, the more losses accumulate over time, making them suitable only for short-term hedging.

↩️ Inverse ETFs — Negative Beta is normal

Because they move opposite to the index, a negative Beta or one near −1 is expected. Volatility is similar to the underlying index. These are intended for short-term hedging and are unsuitable for long-term holding.

Beta (market sensitivity)

평균권

-0.98

If the market rises +10% -9.8%

If the market falls -10% +9.8%

My positionMid-range

Low range Average High range

ℹ️ A beta of 1.0 moves in line with the market. Above 1 means it moves more than the market; below 1 means less.

Average daily range (last 1 month)

상위 25%

±0.97%

S&P 500 typically ±1.0~1.3% · Bond funds ±0.3% · Leveraged ETFs ±3% or more

Annual volatility trend (past 10 years)

ℹ️ This ETF's average daily price swing. 1% means "on average, moves about ±1% per day." The rolling curve below shows the annualized volatility (long-term standard measure) over time.

Max Drawdown · Past 10 years

-75.3%

Drawdown duration: 122 months

2016-06-27 → 2026-07-10

Still recovering

2016-06-10 Worst -75% 2026-07-01

ℹ️ Maximum drawdown is the largest peak-to-trough decline in the past. It represents the worst-case loss a long-term investor must psychologically endure.

Sharpe Ratio (Risk-Adjusted Return)

-0.85

Poor — Underperforms the risk-free rate

ℹ️ Annualized return minus the risk-free rate (3% annualized), divided by annualized volatility. A value above 1.0 is generally considered good risk-adjusted performance.

Estimated Monthly Maximum Loss (VaR 95%)

-7.3%

Historically, monthly losses exceeding this figure occurred only5%of the time.

ℹ️ A statistical estimate meaning "with 95% probability, monthly losses will not exceed this amount." The remaining 5% corresponds to crisis-level events such as financial crises or pandemics.

Dividend Analysis

Yield · Dividend history · After-tax income calculator

Inverse ETF distribution — 3.31% annually

This product is designed for directional hedging and has little to do with dividend income.5-year dividend growth rate: +84.3%.

ℹ️ Inverse ETFs are not designed for dividend income, and even when they pay distributions, structural decay can offset them.

배당수익률

3.31%

주당 배당

$0.29

연간 기준

5년 성장률

84.3%

지급 주기

분기배당

3월 · 9월 · 12월

📊 총 이력 2017~2026 (27건)

연도별 배당 총액 추이

주당 배당금을 연 단위로 합산한 금액입니다. 막대가 우상향이면 매년 배당이 늘어나고 있다는 뜻입니다.

$0.13

2017

$0.39 +207.8%

2018

$0.46 +16.8%

2019

$0.02 -96.1%

2020

$0.16 +777.8%

2022

$0.78 +391.1%

2023

$0.59 -24.5%

2024

$0.38 -34.6%

2025

$X.XX 그 해 총 배당금 +X% 전년 대비 증가 -X% 감소

최근 배당 이력 총 27건

아래로 스크롤하면 과거 배당 이력을 볼 수 있습니다.

배당락일

주당 금액

지급일

당시 수익률

2026-03-24

$0.052

—

4.39%

2025-12-23

$0.075

—

5.57%

2025-09-23

$0.094

—

6.13%

2025-06-24

$0.135

—

6.30%

2025-03-25

$0.079

—

4.67%

2024-12-23

$0.137

—

5.41%

2024-09-24

$0.146

—

5.89%

2024-06-25

$0.163

—

6.14%

2024-03-19

$0.140

—

7.45%

2023-12-21

$0.212

—

5.82%

2023-09-19

$0.205

—

5.05%

2023-06-21

$0.265

—

3.56%

2023-03-21

$0.094

—

1.59%

2022-12-20

$0.133

—

0.95%

2022-09-20

$0.025

—

0.15%

2020-03-24

$0.018

—

1.08%

2019-12-23

$0.074

—

2.33%

2019-09-24

$0.111

—

2.28%

2019-06-25

$0.122

—

1.83%

2019-03-19

$0.153

—

1.95%

2018-12-27

$0.109

—

1.23%

2018-09-25

$0.114

—

1.22%

2018-06-19

$0.140

—

1.02%

2018-03-20

$0.031

—

0.53%

2017-12-19

$0.053

—

0.42%

2017-09-19

$0.038

—

0.23%

2017-06-20

$0.037

—

0.11%

* "배당락일"은 배당받으려면 이 날 이전에 주식을 보유해야 하는 기준일입니다. 지급일·당시 수익률은 일부 종목에서 데이터가 없을 수 있습니다.

💰 내가 $100K 투자한다면

연간 배당금 (세후) $3K

5년 누적 (세후) $68K

* 환율 1 가정, 배당소득세 15% 반영. 5년 누적은 배당 성장률 연 84.33% 가정.

* Qualified dividend middle-bracket approximation. Actual rate varies by total income.

Overall investment appeal

What this ETF fits best — strengths, weaknesses, and target investor profile

Designed for short-term trading Not recommended for long-term investing, but suitable for short-term trading and hedging.

⚠️ Short-term hedge that moves opposite to the market. Time decay causes losses to accumulate on long holds.

🎯 목적별 적합도

내가 이 ETF를 어떤 목적으로 활용할 수 있는지 확인하세요.

🌳

장기 보유

수년 이상 꾸준히 모아갈 때

부적합

💵

배당 인컴

매월·분기 현금흐름이 목적일 때

부적합

⚡

단기 트레이딩

며칠~몇 주 단기 방향성 매매

매우 적합

🧩

포트폴리오 보조

자산 배분·헤지 용도

매우 낮음

👤

이런 분에게 어울려요

For short-term hedging and downside bets

✅ 강점

💸Low cost — 0.48% annually
🛡️Below-average volatility

⚠️ 약점·주의사항

🎯Trails benchmark by -21.4%p annually
🔄Inverse — time decay losses accumulate the longer you hold

Portfolio Composition

What's actually inside — sector weights and top holdings

파생상품 기반 ETF

실제 보유 종목이 일반 ETF와 다르게 스왑·선물 중심이에요.

ℹ️ 왜 구성을 봐야 하나요?

ETF의 실제 성과는 담고 있는 종목과 섹터에서 나와요. 이름이 "S&P 500"이라도 기술주 비중이 유난히 높을 수 있고, "배당주 ETF"라도 몇몇 대형주에 쏠려 있을 수 있어요. 라벨보다 실제 구성을 확인하는 게 중요해요.

🔬 집중도 한눈에 보기

총 보유종목

5개

상위 10개 비중

104.6%

최대 단일 종목

89.17%

집중도(HHI)

8189

높음 (집중)

⚠️ 소수 종목·섹터에 집중되어 있어, 해당 종목/섹터가 흔들리면 ETF 전체가 크게 영향을 받아요.

🥧 섹터 비중

Financial

15.4%

📋 상위 보유 종목 Top 10 Top 10이 전체의 100.2% 차지

티커 옆의 점 색상 = 섹터 구분 (섹터 차트와 동일 색상)

#1 - DREYFUS GOVERNMENT CASH MANAGE

89.17%

GTOP GOLDMAN SACHS LIQ ES FD A

15.42%

#3 - GOLDMAN FINANCIAL

0.00%

#4 - N/A

-1.45%

#5 - N/A

-2.91%

Category Peers

Category: Equity - Leveraged / Inverse

같은 카테고리 6종 중 AUM 6/6위 · 보수율 1/6위

카테고리: Equity - Leveraged / Inverse

ℹ️ 왜 비교해야 하나요?

같은 카테고리 ETF끼리는 보수율·규모(AUM)·배당률을 비교해 볼 가치가 있어요. 보수율은 낮을수록 장기 수익에 유리하고, AUM이 크면 운용 안정성이 높아요. ▲ 표시는 SPDN보다 유리, ▼ 표시는 SPDN보다 불리를 뜻해요.

티커	ETF명	보수율	AUM	보유종목	배당률	YTD	1년
SPDN	Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 1X ETF	0.48%	$209M	6	3.31%	-6.89%	-12.72%
SQQQ	ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ -3x Shares	0.95% ▼	$2.1B ▲	22	8.59% ▲	-	-48.55% ▼
SOXS	Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bear 3X ETF	1% ▼	$1.6B ▲	13	36.06% ▲	-	-95.65% ▼
SH	ProShares Short S&P500 -1x Shares	0.89% ▼	$930M ▲	18	4.16% ▲	-	-13.67% ▼
PSQ	ProShares Short QQQ -1x Shares	0.95% ▼	$791M ▲	18	4.18% ▲	-	-16.85% ▼
SPXU	ProShares UltraPro Short S&P 500	0.9% ▼	$431M ▲	18	6.63% ▲	-	-38.30% ▼

AUM 내림차순 정렬 · ▲ SPDN보다 유리 · ▼ SPDN보다 불리

Leveraged & Covered Call ETFs on the Same Theme

ETFs that approach the same theme with a different strategy

24 ETFs tracking the same theme as SPDN using leveraged or covered call strategies (Leverage 8 · Inverse 8 · Covered Call 8)

Not direct derivatives of SPDN, but ETFs that cover the same theme via a different strategy.

ℹ️ Which ETFs are included?

Among ETFs whose theme (category or sector) overlaps with SPDN, some use special strategies. Leveraged ETFs aim for 2–3× the daily move, Inverse ETFs seek opposite-direction returns, and Covered Call ETFs generate monthly income from option premiums.

⚠️ Caution: Long-Term Holding

Leveraged and inverse ETFs track only the daily return. With high volatility, holding them for longer periods causes cumulative volatility decay—returns diverge further from the underlying index. They are meant for short-term trading.

📈 Leverage 8 ETFs that amplify the same theme by 2-3x (high volatility)