MTBA 주가 전망 및 ETF 분석 - 배당·운용보수·보유종목·NAV·RSI·MACD

MTBA

Simplify MBS ETF

7월 27일 3:59 PM ET (한국 7/28 04:59)

$48.75

+0.08 ▲ +0.16%

MTBA ETF is analyzed across 10 metrics including expense ratio, holdings, sector allocation, dividends, RSI, and MACD.

Total Expense Ratio

0.15%

Annual operating cost

Net Assets (AUM)

$1.5B

약 2조원

Holdings

14 items

Dividend Yield

5.04%

Management Style

Active

Category ⓘ	Bonds - Mortgage	Asset Type ⓘ	Bonds	Return% 1Y ⓘ	3.48%	Total Holdings ⓘ	14	Perf Week ⓘ	-0.31%
ETF Type ⓘ	US Bonds	Active/Passive ⓘ	Active	Return% 3Y ⓘ	-	AUM ⓘ	$1.5B	Perf Month ⓘ	-0.91%
Expense ⓘ	0.15%	NAV ⓘ	$48.67	Return% 5Y ⓘ	-	52W High ⓘ	-3.57%	Perf Quarter ⓘ	-1.65%
Dividend TTM ⓘ	$2.45 (5.04%)	Div Gr. 3/5Y ⓘ	-	Return% 10Y ⓘ	-	52W Low ⓘ	0.3%	Perf Half Y ⓘ	-3.09%
Flows% 1M ⓘ	-0.56%	Flows% YTD ⓘ	-6.51%	Return% SI ⓘ	4.69%	Volatility(W/M) ⓘ	0.23% 0.19%	Perf YTD ⓘ	-2.82%
SMA20 ⓘ	-0.37%	SMA50 ⓘ	-0.59%	SMA200 ⓘ	-1.89%	RSI (14) ⓘ	40.15	Beta ⓘ	0.13
IPO ⓘ	2023/11/7	Prev Close ⓘ	$48.67	Perf Year ⓘ	-1.43%	Avg Volume ⓘ	0.18M	Price ⓘ	$48.75

📊 Simplify MBS ETF (MTBA) Investment Analysis

ETF Overview

Simplify MBS ETF · Bonds - Mortgage

채권형 — 채권 ETF (만기 미상)

2023년 상장, 3년 운영 중.

Simplify MBS ETF는 자본 보존을 고려하면서 총수익을 제공하고자 합니다. 정상적인 상황에서 순자산의 최소 80%를 미국 정부 기관(GNMA, FNMA, FHLMC)이 발행한 모기지 담보 증권(MBS) 및 관련 상품에 투자하는 액티브 운용 ETF입니다.

📘 MTBA ETF 자세히 알아보기 →

U.S.bondstreasuriesdebt-securities

규모: $1.5B 약 2조원
운용사: Simplify
운용 방식: 액티브 (운용사 재량)
상장일: 2023년

Cost Efficiency

Annual Expense Ratio · Category Rank · Long-Term Cost Impact

Low-cost ETF — 0.15% annually

상위 25% within Bonds - Mortgage. For a ₩100M investment, roughly ₩150,000/year.

Effective Annual Expense Ratio (Net Expense Ratio)

상위 25%

0.15%

My positionTop 25%

Low range Average High range

Actual Cost Simulation by Investment Amount

$100.0M

Annual Expense Ratio

$150K

Save $200K per year vs. category average

Category Median Annual Cost

$350K

Based on expense ratio of 0.35%

10-Year Cumulative Expense Ratio (Long-term simulation assuming 7% annual market growth)

$2.7M

2.8% of returns you could have earned goes to the fund manager due to fees

💡 Because the expense ratio takes a slice of your assets every year, costs compound over 10 years and result in far greater losses than a simple sum (annual fee × 10). The 7% annual return assumption is based on the S&P 500's long-term average.

Defaults shown against $100K baseline portfolio. Adjust the slider to update the amount in real time.

Cheaper alternatives in the same category

VMBS

Vanguard Mortgage-Backed Securities ETF

0.03%

-0.12%p annually

SMBS

Schwab Mortgage-Backed Securities ETF

* A lower fee does not necessarily mean a better ETF. Consider the tracked index, liquidity, and tax treatment as well.

Long-Term Performance

1-year · 3-year · 5-year · 10-year returns · vs. benchmark · drawdown defense

Insufficient return data

-14.3%p vs. benchmark (SPY) over 1Y.

ℹ️ The "1Y·3Y·5Y·10Y" periods below represent annualized returns (CAGR) measured backward from today. Example: "3Y +12%" means the investment grew at a compounded 12% per year over the past three years.

If you had invested 1 year(s) ago

$100.0M

Today's value

$103.5M

→

Total gain

+$3.5M

Annualized +3.5%

ℹ️ How to read the return breakdown bar

Each period bar shows the share of this ETF's returns by source.

Price gains Price decline Dividends received

Mostly blue (80%+): Growth-style — price gains drive most returns
Mostly orange (70%+): Income-style — dividends drive most returns (watch out for after-tax drag)
Red + orange: Stagnant or declining price — dividends offset losses (common in covered-call and high-dividend funds)

1 Year

2025.07 ~ 2026.07

Annualized +3.48%

하위 25%

Price -1.43% + Dividend +4.91% = Total +3.48%/yr

Trailed the benchmark by 14.3%p annually

My positionBottom 25%

Low range Average High range

3 Years

2023.07 ~ 2026.07

Insufficient data

5 Years

2021.07 ~ 2026.07

Listed 2023/11 — under 5 years

10Y

2016.07 ~ 2026.07

Listed 2023/11 — under 10 years

3Y Cumulative Total Return Curve

2023-11-07 start, based on a 100M KRW base — read the curve values directly as units of 100M KRW (e.g., 308 → 3.08억 / 308M KRW). Both this ETF and the benchmark are rebased to 100 on the same start date for comparison.

MTBA · Price Only MTBA · Price + Cumulative Dividends MTBA · Dividend Reinvested S&P 500 (SPY)

100

150

200

ℹ️ Price Only: Excludes dividends and tracks pure stock price only. Covered-call and high-dividend ETFs often show a flat or declining line on this view, which is meaningful from a "principal preservation" standpoint. Price + Cumulative Dividend: Share count stays the same and received dividends are accumulated as cash. Closely matches your actual account total assets. Reinvested: Dividends are immediately used to buy additional shares (adjClose-based, the industry standard for total return). The wider the gap between the three lines, the easier it is to gauge the effectiveness of the dividend strategy.

Annual Return Comparison

ETF returns vs S&P 500 (SPY) by calendar year

MTBA S&P 500 (SPY)

+40%

−40%

+4%

2023

+2%

2024

+8%

2025

-1%

2026 YTD

💡 SPY is an equity benchmark, so direct comparison with different asset classes is for reference only.

ℹ️ Returns from January 1 to December 31 of each year. The current year (2026) column is dimmed to indicate YTD (incomplete). If blue is higher than gray, the ETF outperformed the benchmark in that year.

Win rate vs S&P 500 (SPY)

0 / 3Y

Lags behind benchmark (0%)

+ 2026 YTD: Behind (-1.4% vs 8.5%)

2023 ✗

2024 ✗

2025 ✗

2026 ✗ YTD

💡 Win rates against SPY are for reference only, since the asset class differs.

ℹ️ Number of winning years versus S&P 500 (SPY) within a completed calendar year (1/1–12/31). The current year (YTD) is reported separately.

Downside Capture

🛡️ 7%

Falls less than the benchmark in drawdowns — strong downside protection

<85% (Defend) 85~110% (Track) >110% (Lag)

💡 Bonds often show negative correlation with equities, limiting how this metric should be interpreted.

ℹ️ Average % drop of this ETF when S&P 500 (SPY) is −1%. Based on daily returns over the past 3 years (only days where the benchmark is negative).

Risk Profile

Volatility · Beta · Max Drawdown · Sharpe · Drawdown Recovery History

Overall Risk Grade

Bond Benchmark

Bond ETFs are naturally less volatile than stocks, so it only makes sense to compare them with other bond ETFs. You should also factor in the inverse relationship between interest rates and bond prices.

🏦 Bond ETFs — Low volatility and low Beta are the norm

Bonds have far lower volatility than stocks, and a lower Beta versus equity benchmarks. An "stable" rating is the natural result; meaningful comparison should be made against bond indices (e.g., AGG/TLT).

Beta (market sensitivity)

평균권

0.13

If the market rises +10% +1.3%

If the market falls -10% -1.3%

My positionMid-range

Low range Average High range

ℹ️ A beta of 1.0 moves in line with the market. Above 1 means it moves more than the market; below 1 means less.

Average daily range (last 1 month)

상위 25%

±0.19%

S&P 500 typically ±1.0~1.3% · Bond funds ±0.3% · Leveraged ETFs ±3% or more

Annual volatility trend (past 10 years)

ℹ️ This ETF's average daily price swing. 1% means "on average, moves about ±1% per day." The rolling curve below shows the annualized volatility (long-term standard measure) over time.

Max Drawdown · Past 10 years

-3.5%

Drawdown duration: 4 months

2024-09-16 → 2025-01-13

Recovered in about 78 days

2023-11-07 Worst -5% 2026-07-01

ℹ️ Maximum drawdown is the largest peak-to-trough decline in the past. It represents the worst-case loss a long-term investor must psychologically endure.

Sharpe Ratio (Risk-Adjusted Return)

0.35

Weak — Low risk-adjusted returns

ℹ️ Annualized return minus the risk-free rate (3% annualized), divided by annualized volatility. A value above 1.0 is generally considered good risk-adjusted performance.

Estimated Monthly Maximum Loss (VaR 95%)

-1.5%

Historically, monthly losses exceeding this figure occurred only5%of the time.

ℹ️ A statistical estimate meaning "with 95% probability, monthly losses will not exceed this amount." The remaining 5% corresponds to crisis-level events such as financial crises or pandemics.

Dividend Analysis

Yield · Dividend history · After-tax income calculator

Bond distribution — 5.04% annually

Coupon interest is the primary source.

ℹ️ Bond ETF distributions are mostly coupon income. Distributions may rise when interest rates increase, but this should be considered alongside the resulting price decline.

배당수익률

5.04%

주당 배당

$2.45

연간 기준

5년 성장률

지급 주기

불규칙

1월 · 2월 · 3월 · 4월 · 8월 · 9월 · 10월 · 11월 · 12월

📊 총 이력 2023~2026 (29건)

연도별 배당 총액 추이

주당 배당금을 연 단위로 합산한 금액입니다. 막대가 우상향이면 매년 배당이 늘어나고 있다는 뜻입니다.

—

2021

—

2022

$0.25

2023

$3.00 +1118.7%

2024

$3.03 +1.1%

2025

$X.XX 그 해 총 배당금 +X% 전년 대비 증가 -X% 감소

최근 배당 이력 총 29건

아래로 스크롤하면 과거 배당 이력을 볼 수 있습니다.

배당락일

주당 금액

지급일

당시 수익률

2026-04-27

$0.240

—

6.07%

2026-03-26

$0.240

—

6.67%

2026-02-24

$0.250

—

6.49%

2026-01-27

$0.250

—

6.50%

2025-12-23

$0.280

—

6.51%

2025-11-21

$0.250

—

6.45%

2025-10-28

$0.250

—

6.42%

2025-09-25

$0.250

—

6.46%

2025-08-26

$0.250

—

6.46%

2025-07-28

$0.250

—

6.03%

2025-06-25

$0.250

—

6.52%

2025-05-27

$0.250

—

6.07%

2025-04-25

$0.250

—

6.51%

2025-03-26

$0.250

—

6.00%

2025-02-25

$0.250

—

6.48%

2025-01-28

$0.250

—

6.03%

2024-12-23

$0.248

—

6.55%

2024-11-25

$0.250

—

5.96%

2024-10-28

$0.250

—

5.48%

2024-09-25

$0.250

—

4.85%

2024-08-27

$0.250

—

4.37%

2024-07-26

$0.250

—

3.93%

2024-06-25

$0.250

—

3.45%

2024-05-24

$0.250

—

2.98%

2024-04-25

$0.250

—

2.51%

2024-03-25

$0.250

—

1.96%

2024-02-26

$0.250

—

1.48%

2024-01-26

$0.250

—

0.97%

2023-12-26

$0.246

—

0.48%

* "배당락일"은 배당받으려면 이 날 이전에 주식을 보유해야 하는 기준일입니다. 지급일·당시 수익률은 일부 종목에서 데이터가 없을 수 있습니다.

💰 내가 $100K 투자한다면

연간 배당금 (세후) $4K

5년 누적 (세후) $21K

* 환율 1 가정, 배당소득세 15% 반영. 5년 누적은 배당 성장률 연 0% 가정.

* Qualified dividend middle-bracket approximation. Actual rate varies by total income.

Overall investment appeal

What this ETF fits best — strengths, weaknesses, and target investor profile

Overall attractive Key metrics look solid, and the strengths outweigh the weak spots.

🎯 목적별 적합도

내가 이 ETF를 어떤 목적으로 활용할 수 있는지 확인하세요.

🌳

장기 보유

수년 이상 꾸준히 모아갈 때

보통

💵

배당 인컴

매월·분기 현금흐름이 목적일 때

매우 적합

⚡

단기 트레이딩

며칠~몇 주 단기 방향성 매매

매우 낮음

🧩

포트폴리오 보조

자산 배분·헤지 용도

매우 적합

👤

이런 분에게 어울려요

Investors seeking portfolio stability

✅ 강점

💸Low cost — 0.15% annually
🛡️Below-average volatility

⚠️ 약점·주의사항

🎯Trails benchmark by -14.3%p annually

Portfolio Composition

What's actually inside — sector weights and top holdings

채권 포트폴리오

주식과 달리 "섹터 = 만기·신용등급"으로 해석해야 해요.

ℹ️ 왜 구성을 봐야 하나요?

ETF의 실제 성과는 담고 있는 종목과 섹터에서 나와요. 이름이 "S&P 500"이라도 기술주 비중이 유난히 높을 수 있고, "배당주 ETF"라도 몇몇 대형주에 쏠려 있을 수 있어요. 라벨보다 실제 구성을 확인하는 게 중요해요.

🔬 집중도 한눈에 보기

총 보유종목

9개

상위 10개 비중

200.4%

최대 단일 종목

94.35%

집중도(HHI)

12586

높음 (집중)

⚠️ 소수 종목·섹터에 집중되어 있어, 해당 종목/섹터가 흔들리면 ETF 전체가 크게 영향을 받아요.

🥧 섹터 비중

Financial

94.3%

📋 상위 보유 종목 Top 10 Top 10이 전체의 200.4% 차지

티커 옆의 점 색상 = 섹터 구분 (섹터 차트와 동일 색상)

SBIL Simplify Exchange Traded Funds

94.35%

#2 - Federal National Mortgage Association

41.53%

#3 - Federal National Mortgage Association

40.84%

#4 - Federal National Mortgage Association

16.44%

BNO United States Treasury Bills

4.20%

BNO United States Treasury Bills

1.52%

USLM United States Treasury Bills

0.93%

BNO United States Treasury Bills

0.52%

#9 - DREYFUS TRSY OBLIG CASH M

0.03%

Category Peers

Category: Bonds - Mortgage

같은 카테고리 6종 중 AUM 6/6위 · 보수율 4/6위

카테고리: Bonds - Mortgage

ℹ️ 왜 비교해야 하나요?

같은 카테고리 ETF끼리는 보수율·규모(AUM)·배당률을 비교해 볼 가치가 있어요. 보수율은 낮을수록 장기 수익에 유리하고, AUM이 크면 운용 안정성이 높아요. ▲ 표시는 MTBA보다 유리, ▼ 표시는 MTBA보다 불리를 뜻해요.

티커	ETF명	보수율	AUM	보유종목	배당률	YTD	1년
MTBA	Simplify MBS ETF	0.15%	$1.5B	14	5.04%	-2.82%	-1.43%
MBB	iShares MBS ETF	0.04% ▲	$39.0B ▲	11187	4.32% ▼	-	+0.26% ▲
VMBS	Vanguard Mortgage-Backed Securities ETF	0.03% ▲	$15.5B ▲	5232	4.22% ▼	-	+0.54% ▲
SPMB	State Street SPDR Portfolio Mortgage Backed Bond ETF	0.04% ▲	$7.0B ▲	2717	4.14% ▼	-	+0.59% ▲
JMBS	Janus Henderson Mortgage-Backed Securities ETF	0.21% ▼	$6.7B ▲	632	5.23% ▲	-	-0.22% ▲
JMTG	JPMorgan Mortgage-Backed Securities ETF	0.24% ▼	$6.7B ▲	2587	4.33% ▼	-	+0.50% ▲

AUM 내림차순 정렬 · ▲ MTBA보다 유리 · ▼ MTBA보다 불리

Leveraged & Covered Call ETFs on the Same Theme

ETFs that approach the same theme with a different strategy

18 ETFs tracking the same theme as MTBA using leveraged or covered call strategies (Leverage 5 · Inverse 7 · Covered Call 6)

Not direct derivatives of MTBA, but ETFs that cover the same theme via a different strategy.

ℹ️ Which ETFs are included?

Among ETFs whose theme (category or sector) overlaps with MTBA, some use special strategies. Leveraged ETFs aim for 2–3× the daily move, Inverse ETFs seek opposite-direction returns, and Covered Call ETFs generate monthly income from option premiums.

⚠️ Caution: Long-Term Holding

Leveraged and inverse ETFs track only the daily return. With high volatility, holding them for longer periods causes cumulative volatility decay—returns diverge further from the underlying index. They are meant for short-term trading.

📈 Leverage 5 ETFs that amplify the same theme by 2-3x (high volatility)