FCTE 주가 전망 및 ETF 분석 - 배당·운용보수·보유종목·NAV·RSI·MACD

FCTE

SMI 3Fourteen Full-Cycle Trend ETF

7월 28일 4:00 PM ET (한국 7/29 05:00)

$29.10

+0.17 ▲ +0.61%

🌙 7월 28일 4:10 PM ET (한국 7/29 05:10)

$29.07

+0.00 +0.00%

FCTE ETF is analyzed across 10 metrics including expense ratio, holdings, sector allocation, dividends, RSI, and MACD.

Total Expense Ratio

0.85%

Annual operating cost

Net Assets (AUM)

$237M

약 3253억원

Holdings

21 items

Dividend Yield

0.08%

Management Style

Active

Category ⓘ	US Equities - Quant Strat	Asset Type ⓘ	Equities (Stocks)	Return% 1Y ⓘ	10%	Total Holdings ⓘ	21	Perf Week ⓘ	1.04%
ETF Type ⓘ	US Equities	Active/Passive ⓘ	Active	Return% 3Y ⓘ	-	AUM ⓘ	$237M	Perf Month ⓘ	1.7%
Expense ⓘ	0.85%	NAV ⓘ	$28.94	Return% 5Y ⓘ	-	52W High ⓘ	-2.1%	Perf Quarter ⓘ	6.15%
Dividend TTM ⓘ	$0.02 (0.08%)	Div Gr. 3/5Y ⓘ	-	Return% 10Y ⓘ	-	52W Low ⓘ	21.81%	Perf Half Y ⓘ	7.8%
Flows% 1M ⓘ	-1.92%	Flows% YTD ⓘ	-3.44%	Return% SI ⓘ	8.28%	Volatility(W/M) ⓘ	0.46% 0.94%	Perf YTD ⓘ	16.89%
SMA20 ⓘ	0.61%	SMA50 ⓘ	3.85%	SMA200 ⓘ	10.3%	RSI (14) ⓘ	61.65	Beta ⓘ	0.75
IPO ⓘ	2024/7/2	Prev Close ⓘ	$28.93	Perf Year ⓘ	10.55%	Avg Volume ⓘ	0.02M	Price ⓘ	$29.1

📊 SMI 3Fourteen Full-Cycle Trend ETF (FCTE) Investment Analysis

ETF Overview

SMI 3Fourteen Full-Cycle Trend ETF · US Equities - Quant Strat

액티브 운용 — 펀드매니저가 종목을 선별해 초과수익 추구

2024년 상장, 2년 운영 중.

SMI 3Fourteen Full-Cycle Trend ETF는 장기적인 자본 증식을 목표로 하는 액티브 운용 펀드입니다. 일반적으로 S&P 500 지수에 포함된 미국 주식 중 약 20여 개 종목을 보유합니다. 자본 수익률, 현금 흐름 안정성, 이익 성장성 등 퀄리티 스크리닝과 모멘텀, 추세 분석 등의 요인을 결합한 독자적인 모델을 기반으로 종목을 선정하며, 비분산형(Non-diversified) 펀드입니다.

📘 FCTE ETF 자세히 알아보기 →

U.S.equityqualitymomentum

규모: $237M 약 3253억원
운용사: -
운용 방식: 액티브 (운용사 재량)
상장일: 2024년

Cost Efficiency

Annual Expense Ratio · Category Rank · Long-Term Cost Impact

Average expense ratio — 0.85% annually

Mid-range within the US Equities - Quant Strat category.

Effective Annual Expense Ratio (Net Expense Ratio)

평균권

0.85%

My positionMid-range

Low range Average High range

Actual Cost Simulation by Investment Amount

$100.0M

Annual Expense Ratio

$850K

Pay $60K more per year vs. category average

Category Median Annual Cost

$790K

Based on expense ratio of 0.79%

10-Year Cumulative Expense Ratio (Long-term simulation assuming 7% annual market growth)

$15.1M

15.6% of returns you could have earned goes to the fund manager due to fees

💡 Because the expense ratio takes a slice of your assets every year, costs compound over 10 years and result in far greater losses than a simple sum (annual fee × 10). The 7% annual return assumption is based on the S&P 500's long-term average.

Defaults shown against $100K baseline portfolio. Adjust the slider to update the amount in real time.

Cheaper alternatives in the same category

CBOX

Calamos Tax-Aware Collateral ETF

0.14%

-0.71%p annually

XBOX

Roundhill Ultra Short Duration No Dividend Target ETF

0.14%

-0.71%p annually

SELV

SEI QiM U.S. Large Cap Low Volatility Active ETF

0.15%

-0.70%p annually

* A lower fee does not necessarily mean a better ETF. Consider the tracked index, liquidity, and tax treatment as well.

Long-Term Performance

1-year · 3-year · 5-year · 10-year returns · vs. benchmark · drawdown defense

Insufficient return data

-7.8%p vs. benchmark (SPY) over 1Y.

ℹ️ The "1Y·3Y·5Y·10Y" periods below represent annualized returns (CAGR) measured backward from today. Example: "3Y +12%" means the investment grew at a compounded 12% per year over the past three years.

If you had invested 1 year(s) ago

$100.0M

Today's value

$110.0M

→

Total gain

+$10.0M

Annualized +10.0%

1 Year

2025.07 ~ 2026.07

Annualized +10.00%

평균권

Trailed the benchmark by 7.8%p annually

My positionMid-range

Low range Average High range

3 Years

2023.07 ~ 2026.07

Listed 2024/7 — under 3 years

5 Years

2021.07 ~ 2026.07

Listed 2024/7 — under 5 years

10Y

2016.07 ~ 2026.07

Listed 2024/7 — under 10 years

2Y Cumulative Total Return Curve

2024-07-02 start, based on a 100M KRW base — read the curve values directly as units of 100M KRW (e.g., 308 → 3.08억 / 308M KRW). Both this ETF and the benchmark are rebased to 100 on the same start date for comparison.

FCTE · Price Only FCTE · Price + Cumulative Dividends FCTE · Dividend Reinvested S&P 500 (SPY)

100

150

ℹ️ Price Only: Excludes dividends and tracks pure stock price only. Covered-call and high-dividend ETFs often show a flat or declining line on this view, which is meaningful from a "principal preservation" standpoint. Price + Cumulative Dividend: Share count stays the same and received dividends are accumulated as cash. Closely matches your actual account total assets. Reinvested: Dividends are immediately used to buy additional shares (adjClose-based, the industry standard for total return). The wider the gap between the three lines, the easier it is to gauge the effectiveness of the dividend strategy.

Annual Return Comparison

ETF returns vs S&P 500 (SPY) by calendar year

FCTE S&P 500 (SPY)

+40%

−40%

+5%

2024

-4%

2025

+16%

2026 YTD

ℹ️ Returns from January 1 to December 31 of each year. The current year (2026) column is dimmed to indicate YTD (incomplete). If blue is higher than gray, the ETF outperformed the benchmark in that year.

Win rate vs S&P 500 (SPY)

—

Completed years: 2 — 3+ years of data are needed for a win rate to be shown.

2024 ✗

2025 ✗

2026 ✓ YTD

ℹ️ Number of winning years versus S&P 500 (SPY) within a completed calendar year (1/1–12/31). The current year (YTD) is reported separately.

Downside Capture

⚖️ 96%

Falls in line with the benchmark — high correlation

<85% (Defend) 85~110% (Track) >110% (Lag)

ℹ️ Average % drop of this ETF when S&P 500 (SPY) is −1%. Based on daily returns over the past 3 years (only days where the benchmark is negative).

Risk Profile

Volatility · Beta · Max Drawdown · Sharpe · Drawdown Recovery History

Overall Risk Grade

Low Risk

Less volatile than the market average, making it relatively easy to hold over time.

Beta (market sensitivity)

하위 25%

0.75

If the market rises +10% +7.5%

If the market falls -10% -7.5%

My positionBottom 25%

Low range Average High range

ℹ️ A beta of 1.0 moves in line with the market. Above 1 means it moves more than the market; below 1 means less.

Average daily range (last 1 month)

하위 25%

±0.94%

S&P 500 typically ±1.0~1.3% · Bond funds ±0.3% · Leveraged ETFs ±3% or more

Annual volatility trend (past 10 years)

ℹ️ This ETF's average daily price swing. 1% means "on average, moves about ±1% per day." The rolling curve below shows the annualized volatility (long-term standard measure) over time.

Max Drawdown · Past 10 years

-19.7%

Drawdown duration: 6 months

2024-10-14 → 2025-04-08

Recovered in about 1.2 years

2024-07-02 Worst -12% 2026-07-01

ℹ️ Maximum drawdown is the largest peak-to-trough decline in the past. It represents the worst-case loss a long-term investor must psychologically endure.

Sharpe Ratio (Risk-Adjusted Return)

0.30

Weak — Low risk-adjusted returns

ℹ️ Annualized return minus the risk-free rate (3% annualized), divided by annualized volatility. A value above 1.0 is generally considered good risk-adjusted performance.

Estimated Monthly Maximum Loss (VaR 95%)

-6.1%

Historically, monthly losses exceeding this figure occurred only5%of the time.

ℹ️ A statistical estimate meaning "with 95% probability, monthly losses will not exceed this amount." The remaining 5% corresponds to crisis-level events such as financial crises or pandemics.

Dividend Analysis

Yield · Dividend history · After-tax income calculator

Pays dividends, but at a relatively low rate — 0.08% annually

Closer to a blend of growth and dividends.

배당수익률

0.08%

주당 배당

$0.02

연간 기준

5년 성장률

지급 주기

연배당

12월

📊 총 이력 2024~2025 (4건)

연도별 배당 총액 추이

주당 배당금을 연 단위로 합산한 금액입니다. 막대가 우상향이면 매년 배당이 늘어나고 있다는 뜻입니다.

—

2021

—

2022

—

2023

$0.05

2024

$0.05 +0.0%

2025

$X.XX 그 해 총 배당금 +X% 전년 대비 증가 -X% 감소

최근 배당 이력 총 4건

아래로 스크롤하면 과거 배당 이력을 볼 수 있습니다.

배당락일

주당 금액

지급일

당시 수익률

2025-12-24

$0.022

—

0.26%

2025-03-19

$0.024

—

0.27%

2024-12-24

$0.020

—

0.17%

2024-09-26

$0.026

—

0.09%

* "배당락일"은 배당받으려면 이 날 이전에 주식을 보유해야 하는 기준일입니다. 지급일·당시 수익률은 일부 종목에서 데이터가 없을 수 있습니다.

💰 내가 $100K 투자한다면

연간 배당금 (세후) $58

5년 누적 (세후) $292

* 환율 1 가정, 배당소득세 15% 반영. 5년 누적은 배당 성장률 연 0% 가정.

* Qualified dividend middle-bracket approximation. Actual rate varies by total income.

Overall investment appeal

What this ETF fits best — strengths, weaknesses, and target investor profile

Strengths and weaknesses both present Check the fit below to see whether it matches your investing goal.

🎯 목적별 적합도

내가 이 ETF를 어떤 목적으로 활용할 수 있는지 확인하세요.

🌳

장기 보유

수년 이상 꾸준히 모아갈 때

낮음

💵

배당 인컴

매월·분기 현금흐름이 목적일 때

매우 낮음

⚡

단기 트레이딩

며칠~몇 주 단기 방향성 매매

낮음

🧩

포트폴리오 보조

자산 배분·헤지 용도

낮음

👤

이런 분에게 어울려요

Investors who believe in active strategies

✅ 강점

뚜렷한 강점이 드러나지 않아요.

⚠️ 약점·주의사항

⚠️Volatility is above average
🎯Trails benchmark by -7.8%p annually

Portfolio Composition

What's actually inside — sector weights and top holdings

20개 종목으로 구성

상위 섹터는 Technology (30%)

ℹ️ 왜 구성을 봐야 하나요?

ETF의 실제 성과는 담고 있는 종목과 섹터에서 나와요. 이름이 "S&P 500"이라도 기술주 비중이 유난히 높을 수 있고, "배당주 ETF"라도 몇몇 대형주에 쏠려 있을 수 있어요. 라벨보다 실제 구성을 확인하는 게 중요해요.

🔬 집중도 한눈에 보기

총 보유종목

20개

상위 10개 비중

50.3%

최대 단일 종목

5.04%

집중도(HHI)

503

보통

⚠️ 소수 종목·섹터에 집중되어 있어, 해당 종목/섹터가 흔들리면 ETF 전체가 크게 영향을 받아요.

🥧 섹터 비중

Technology

30.1%

Healthcare

20.1%

Industrials

15.1%

Consumer Cyclical

10.0%

Consumer Defensive

5.0%

Communication Services

5.0%

📋 상위 보유 종목 Top 10 Top 10이 전체의 50.3% 차지

티커 옆의 점 색상 = 섹터 구분 (섹터 차트와 동일 색상)

#1 AMAT APPLIED MATERIALS, INC.

5.04%

#2 HCA HCA HEALTHCARE, INC.

5.04%

#3 APH AMPHENOL CORPORATION

5.04%

#4 LRCX LAM RESEARCH CORPORATION

5.04%

#5 MNST MONSTER BEVERAGE CORPORATION

5.03%

#6 PH PARKER-HANNIFIN CORPORATION

5.03%

#7 KLAC KLA CORPORATION

5.03%

#8 MPWR MONOLITHIC POWER SYSTEMS, INC.

5.03%

#9 NVDA NVIDIA CORPORATION

5.02%

#10 MCK MCKESSON CORPORATION

5.02%

Category Peers

Category: US Equities - Quant Strat

같은 카테고리 6종 중 AUM 6/6위 · 보수율 6/6위

카테고리: US Equities - Quant Strat

ℹ️ 왜 비교해야 하나요?

같은 카테고리 ETF끼리는 보수율·규모(AUM)·배당률을 비교해 볼 가치가 있어요. 보수율은 낮을수록 장기 수익에 유리하고, AUM이 크면 운용 안정성이 높아요. ▲ 표시는 FCTE보다 유리, ▼ 표시는 FCTE보다 불리를 뜻해요.

티커	ETF명	보수율	AUM	보유종목	배당률	YTD	1년
FCTE	SMI 3Fourteen Full-Cycle Trend ETF	0.85%	$237M	21	0.08%	+16.89%	+10.55%
HELO	JPMorgan Hedged Equity Laddered Overlay ETF	0.5% ▲	$4.5B ▲	163	0.63% ▲	-	+6.76% ▼
CBOX	Calamos Tax-Aware Collateral ETF	0.14% ▲	$1.2B ▲	4	-	-	-
FHEQ	Fidelity Hedged Equity ETF	0.48% ▲	$914M ▲	189	0.55% ▲	-	+13.12% ▲
INFO	Harbor PanAgora Dynamic Large Cap Core ETF	0.35% ▲	$830M ▲	146	0.31% ▲	-	+21.45% ▲
CAOS	Alpha Architect Tail Risk ETF	0.63% ▲	$719M ▲	11	-	-	+1.90% ▼

AUM 내림차순 정렬 · ▲ FCTE보다 유리 · ▼ FCTE보다 불리

Leveraged & Covered Call ETFs on the Same Theme

ETFs that approach the same theme with a different strategy

1 ETFs tracking the same theme as FCTE using leveraged or covered call strategies (Leverage 1)

Not direct derivatives of FCTE, but ETFs that cover the same theme via a different strategy.

ℹ️ Which ETFs are included?

Among ETFs whose theme (category or sector) overlaps with FCTE, some use special strategies. Leveraged ETFs aim for 2–3× the daily move, Inverse ETFs seek opposite-direction returns, and Covered Call ETFs generate monthly income from option premiums.

⚠️ Caution: Long-Term Holding

Leveraged and inverse ETFs track only the daily return. With high volatility, holding them for longer periods causes cumulative volatility decay—returns diverge further from the underlying index. They are meant for short-term trading.

📈 Leverage 1 ETFs that amplify the same theme by 2-3x (high volatility)