Lab · Strategy backtest
Would trading by the rules have beaten simply holding?
NVDA over 5Y: SMA 50/200 golden/death cross (+628.2%) beat simply holding (+507.2%).
Best method: SMA 50/200 golden/death cross (+628.2%). Steadiest: SMA 50/200 golden/death cross (max drawdown -28.4% vs holding -66.3%). S&P 500 over the same span: +66.8%.All 5 methods at once
Click a row to switch the chart and trades below
| Method | Total return | Annualized | Max drawdown | Time in market | Trades |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SMA 50/200 golden/death cross Trend following | +628.2% | +48.8% | -28.4% | 70% | 2 |
| Buy and hold Buy at start, hold to end | +507.2% | +43.5% | -66.3% | 100% | - |
| Ichimoku cloud breakout Trend following | +196.7% | +24.3% | -50.2% | 62% | 28 |
| BB lower/upper Mean reversion | +131.3% | +18.3% | -42.4% | 39% | 15 |
| MACD golden/death cross Trend following | +80.8% | +12.6% | -49.2% | 52% | 48 |
| S&P 500 Index hold (benchmark) | +66.8% | +10.8% | -24.5% | 100% | - |
| RSI 30/70 Mean reversion | +8.7% | +1.7% | -60.8% | 18% | 3 |
Equity curve
Growth of 1 · bold line = RSI 30/70
BB lower/upperMACD golden/death crossRSI 30/70SMA 50/200 golden/death crossIchimoku cloud breakout Buy and hold S&P 500 Buy Sell
RSI 30/70 trades
Buy when 14-day RSI drops below 30 (oversold), sell above 70 (overbought). Aims at short-term rebounds.
#3 2026-11-06 Buy $191.10 → Open -2.4%0d
#2 2025-04-07 Buy $87.44 → 2025-05-15 Sell $134.26 +53.4%38d
#1 2022-01-24 Buy $22.29 → 2022-11-14 Sell $16.20 -27.4%294d
Filled at next day's open after a signal · 0.1% round-trip cost · dividends included (adjusted prices) · open positions marked at the last close · past results do not guarantee future returns