EPS this Y
This year's EPS growth rate
💡 What is EPS this Y (This Year's Estimated EPS Growth Rate)?
One-line definition: EPS this Y (EPS This Year, this year's estimated EPS growth rate) is a metric that shows, as a percentage (%), how much the EPS for the current fiscal year is expected to grow compared to the previous year. It is based on the analyst consensus.
In English, it is called EPS Growth This Year, Current Year EPS Growth, or FY EPS Estimate. In Korean, it is referred to as this year's EPS growth rate forecast, current-year earnings per share growth rate, or annual earnings growth expectation.
In stock investing, "how much more money will this company make this year?" is one of the most essential questions. EPS this Y shows the market's answer to that question in numbers. It gives you a wider view than the quarterly forecast (EPS next Q), helping you understand the company's annual earnings direction, and it is an important metric used as the basis for calculating the Forward P/E.
For example, if NVIDIA's (NVDA) EPS this Y is +80%, it means analysts expect NVIDIA's EPS to grow by 80% this year compared to last year. The higher this number, the greater the market's growth expectations, which is reflected as a premium in the stock price. Conversely, if this number is negative, profits are expected to decline this year, and the stock price is discounted accordingly.
This metric is updated each time quarterly earnings are announced. If Q1 or Q2 results beat expectations, the full-year forecast is revised upward; if they fall short, it is revised downward. If a forecast of +15% at the start of the year gets revised up to +25% after the Q2 earnings release, that is a strong signal that the company's growth momentum is stronger than expected. Tracking the direction of consensus changes is just as important as the current number itself.
One important point is that U.S. companies have different fiscal years. Apple's (AAPL) fiscal year ends in September, Microsoft's (MSFT) ends in June, and Amazon's (AMZN) ends in December. Because of this, the period that "this year" covers differs for each company, so when comparing peers in the same industry, you should confirm that the data is from the same point in time.
English expressions
EPS This Year Growth, Current FY EPS Growth, Annual EPS Estimate, FY EPS Forecast
Korean expressions
This year's EPS growth rate, current-year earnings per share forecast, annual earnings growth expectation, annual EPS estimate
📐 How to Calculate
EPS this Y = (This year's estimated EPS − Previous year's actual EPS) / |Previous year's actual EPS| × 100%
This year's estimated EPS = analyst consensus (the average of multiple analysts' forecasts)
Real example — Microsoft (MSFT):
Previous year's actual EPS: 1.80
This year's estimated EPS (consensus): 3.50
EPS this Y = (3.50 − 1.80) / 1.80 × 100 = +94.4%
Microsoft's EPS is expected to grow by roughly 94% this year. Continued growth in AI and cloud businesses supports this forecast.
The annual EPS forecast is the average of all analyst estimates covering the company. The larger the company, the more analysts follow it, and the more reliable the consensus becomes. Apple (AAPL) is followed by about 35 analysts, and NVIDIA (NVDA) by about 45, so their consensus is relatively accurate. Smaller companies, on the other hand, may only be tracked by 2–3 analysts, which can make the consensus biased.
📊 How to Interpret
Your investment strategy should differ depending on the level of EPS this Y and the direction of its change. See the interpretation by range below.
+25% or higher — High Growth
This year's EPS is expected to grow by 25% or more compared to last year. This is typically seen in companies in hot sectors like AI, semiconductors, and cloud. NVIDIA (NVDA) had an EPS this Y above +100% in 2024, a typical example. High growth expectations justify a high P/E, but the risk of a stock price drop is also large if expectations are missed.
+10% to +25% — Solid Growth
This is the range that shows stable, healthy earnings growth. Proven large-cap companies like Microsoft (MSFT), Apple (AAPL), and Amazon (AMZN) consistently grow within this range. EPS growth at this level is the most reliable driver of stock price gains.
0% to +10% — Low Growth / Stagnation
Earnings growth merely keeps pace with inflation, meaning real growth is minimal. This appears in mature-stage companies or those whose industry cycle is slowing down. It is commonly seen in defensive dividend stocks like Coca-Cola (KO) and Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), and combined with the dividend yield, the total return can still be decent.
Negative — Earnings Decline Expected
This year's EPS is expected to be lower than last year's. Causes may include a recession, intensifying competition, or shifts in industry structure. A representative example is Intel (INTC), whose annual EPS forecast turned negative as it fell behind in semiconductor competition. However, if the decline is due to temporary factors (such as restructuring costs), a rebound the following year is possible, so analyzing the cause is essential.
🔄 Comparison with Similar Metrics
EPS this Y vs. EPS next Q
EPS next Q is the forecast for the next single quarter, whereas EPS this Y is the forecast for the entire current year (all four quarters). Even if a temporary slowdown is expected next quarter, the full-year forecast can still be healthy, and vice versa. The full-year forecast smooths out quarterly volatility and shows the bigger picture.
EPS this Y vs. EPS next 5Y
EPS this Y is the growth rate for one single year, while EPS next 5Y is the average annual growth rate over the next five years. If this year's growth rate is 50% but the 5-year growth rate is only 10%, then this year is just unusually good (e.g., base effect). If this year's growth rate is 15% while the 5-year growth rate is also 20%, then structural growth is expected.
EPS this Y vs. Forward P/E
Forward P/E is the stock price divided by this year's (or next 12 months') estimated EPS. Therefore, when EPS this Y rises, Forward P/E falls. A lower Forward P/E makes the valuation more attractive, so upward revisions to EPS this Y become a direct catalyst for stock price gains.
🎯 Practical Use
Track whether the EPS this Y consensus has been revised up or down over the past 30–90 days. Upward revisions are a strong signal that analysts are improving their earnings forecasts, and they are very useful as a leading indicator of the stock price. If a forecast of +10% at the start of the year gets revised up to +20% over successive quarters, that's a strong buy signal. Persistent downward revisions, on the other hand, are a sell signal.
Dividing the Forward P/E by the EPS this Y growth rate gives you a short-term PEG. If the Forward P/E is 30 and EPS this Y is 30%, PEG = 1.0, a fair level; a PEG below 1 means the stock is undervalued relative to its growth. However, cross-check with EPS next 5Y to see whether this year's growth is temporary or structural.
After each quarterly earnings release, observe how the EPS this Y forecast changes. If strong results lead to an upward revision in the full-year forecast, that's an additional buying opportunity; if weak results lead to a downward revision, you should consider selling. Amazon (AMZN) saw its full-year forecast revised upward with each quarterly earnings release in 2023–2024, and its stock price rose steadily.
Compare EPS this Y across companies in the same industry to find the one with the strongest earnings growth expected this year. In semiconductors, if NVIDIA is +80%, AMD is +25%, and Intel is -15%, you can see that NVIDIA is the overwhelming winner. The excess growth of individual stocks relative to sector ETFs is also meaningful information.
🏭 Characteristics by Sector
This is the sector with the highest expected EPS growth rates. Many companies carry structural growth themes such as AI, cloud, and cybersecurity, and it's common for EPS this Y to reach +20–100%. However, high expectations lead to high valuations, so the stock price drop can be significant if expectations are missed.
Large pharmaceutical companies with blockbuster drugs (Eli Lilly LLY, Novo Nordisk NVO) have high EPS growth expectations. On the other hand, companies facing upcoming patent expirations are expected to see EPS declines due to generic competition. Most biotech companies are loss-making, so EPS this Y itself is not very meaningful, and pipeline progress is more important.
EPS forecasts swing extremely based on commodity prices. When oil prices are high, ExxonMobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX) can have EPS this Y of +50% or more; when oil prices are low, it can plunge to -30% or below. For this sector, analyzing the commodity cycle is more important than the EPS forecast itself.
These are defensive sectors with stable demand regardless of the economy, and their EPS this Y stays steady in the +3–8% range. Coca-Cola (KO), Procter & Gamble (PG), and NextEra Energy (NEE) are representative examples. High growth is hard to expect, but combined with dividends, the total return is attractive.
⚠️ Cautions
If last year's EPS was abnormally low (due to restructuring, pandemic impact, etc.), this year's growth rate may look excessively high. Conversely, if last year's EPS was abnormally high, this year's growth rate will look low. Check the 2–3 year trend together to judge the sustainability of the growth.
U.S. companies have different fiscal years. Apple's fiscal year runs October–September, Microsoft's runs July–June, and Amazon's runs January–December. So the period covered by "EPS this Y" can differ by company. When comparing across companies, check whether their fiscal years align.
Most EPS consensus figures are on a Non-GAAP basis. They exclude items like SBC (stock-based compensation) and restructuring costs, making them appear higher than actual GAAP EPS. Especially since SBC is large at big tech companies, always check the difference between GAAP and Non-GAAP.
✅ Investment Checklist
- 1. Is EPS this Y positive and above the industry average?
- 2. Has the consensus been revised upward over the past 30–90 days?
- 3. Is there any distortion caused by the base effect?
- 4. Is the PEG (Forward P/E relative to growth rate) reasonable?
- 5. Is revenue growth also supporting the EPS growth?
- 6. Does the EPS growth outlook rank favorably against peers in the same industry?
- 7. Is next year's (EPS next Y) outlook also positive? (to confirm growth sustainability)
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Q. What is the difference between EPS this Y and EPS (ttm)?
A. EPS (ttm) is the actual finalized result for the most recent 12 months, while EPS this Y is the estimate for the entire current year. EPS (ttm) is a backward-looking metric — it is accurate because it reflects the past — while EPS this Y is a forward-looking metric that is uncertain but looks ahead. Since the stock price is more sensitive to the future, EPS this Y has a more direct influence on investment decisions.
Q. Does EPS this Y mean the same thing at the start of the year and at the end of the year?
A. At the start of the year, all four quarters are forecasts, but by year-end three quarters of actual results have already been finalized, so uncertainty is greatly reduced. Therefore, EPS this Y at year-end is close to a finalized number, while EPS this Y at the start of the year is highly volatile. For investment decisions, the forecast released after Q2 earnings is more reliable than the one from the start of the year.
Q. If EPS this Y is high but P/E is also high, is it okay to invest?
A. Use the PEG ratio to judge. If PEG, calculated as P/E divided by the EPS this Y growth rate, is 1 or below, the price is reasonable relative to growth. For example, if P/E is 50 but EPS this Y is +60%, PEG = 0.83, which is actually undervalued. However, cross-check with EPS next 5Y to see whether this growth is a one-time phenomenon this year or whether it is structurally sustainable.
Q. If the EPS this Y consensus is revised down, should I sell right away?
A. It depends on the size and the cause of the downward revision. A small downward revision (-2 to -3 percentage points) may be a routine adjustment due to changes in the market environment. However, if the cut is large (-10 percentage points or more) or several analysts cut their estimates at the same time, it should be taken seriously. If the cause is a fundamental business issue (weakening competitiveness, weakness in a key product, etc.), you should consider selling, but if it is due to temporary factors (FX, one-time costs, etc.), you can hold on.
🇰🇷 Note for Korean Investors
You can check U.S. companies' annual EPS consensus through Korean securities apps as well. Check the "Consensus" or "Earnings Forecast" tab in the stock details on Kiwoom Securities' Hero Global, Samsung Securities' mPOP, and similar apps. It is also available for free on Finviz, Yahoo Finance, and Seeking Alpha. On USStockToday, you can see the EPS this Y figure directly on the stock detail page.
A quarterly rebalancing strategy is effective: after each quarterly earnings release, review the changes in the EPS this Y forecasts of your holdings, increase the weight of names with improving forecasts, and trim those with worsening forecasts. Rebalancing four times a year (after each earnings season) is enough. This naturally implements a momentum strategy that concentrates on strong stocks and clears out weak ones.
High-growth stocks with high EPS this Y can generate large capital gains through stock price appreciation. Considering Korea's capital gains tax on U.S. stocks (22%, with a basic exemption of 2.5 million KRW), use the strategy of selling losing positions at year-end to offset gains (tax-loss harvesting). Also, since high-EPS-growth stocks benefit from the compounding effect, holding them for the long term is advantageous.