Pre-market briefing July 1, 2026

Pre-Market Briefing — July 1, 2026

Today at a Glance

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Previous Day Recap

Yesterday, U.S. equities closed out the second quarter on a strong note. The Nasdaq rose 1.52% to 26,213, the S&P 500 gained 0.79% to 7,499, and the Dow added 0.26% to 52,319, once again setting a fresh all-time high. Semiconductor stocks rallied for a second straight day, lifting the major indexes, while the Volatility Index (VIX) fell to 16. On a first-half basis, the Dow is up roughly 8.9% — its best showing since 2021 — while the Nasdaq has gained 12.8% and the small-cap Russell 2000 approximately 22%, marking the strongest six-month performance since 1991. The Fear & Greed Index recovered to 31 as markets turned the page to the second half.

Current Market Tone

Ahead of today's open, the futures market is starting in negative territory. Nasdaq futures are down 0.5%, while S&P 500 and Dow futures are off roughly 0.3%, reflecting profit-taking after a strong first half and a cautious start to the second half. Investor sentiment has also been weighed down by Nike ($NKE), which plunged 4% after-hours following cautious comments from its CEO after reporting earnings yesterday. The biggest variables for today's session are the ADP private payrolls and ISM Manufacturing data due in the evening, along with Fed Chair Warsh's remarks, which markets are watching closely. Thursday's jobs report is the dividing line for the week.

Pre-Market News Roundup

Today's Events

Ahead of the open, earnings from food and financial information heavyweights are on the calendar.

Nike, which reported yesterday, posted EPS well above consensus, but a significant portion came from a one-time tariff refund, and the stock is trading weak after-hours amid sluggish China results and cautious guidance.

Macro Schedule

Today features a back-to-back slate of employment and manufacturing indicators serving as a prelude to Thursday's jobs report.

June ADP private payrolls are expected to show a modest slowdown, with a roughly 118,000 gain (versus 122,000 the prior month). This will be followed by the ISM Manufacturing PMI at 11:00 PM KST (estimate 54, prior 54). ADP is used as a leading indicator for Thursday's nonfarm payrolls, and if both data points suggest cooling in the labor market and manufacturing activity, they could fuel rate-cut expectations. With Fed Chair Warsh's remarks also on the schedule, the day will be critical for gauging the direction of monetary policy in the second half.

Ex-Dividend

Stocks to Watch

Technical indicators are flashing notable signals following the two-day rally through yesterday's close.

Today's Action Guide

Once again, take it slow today — kick off the session by calmly reviewing the first set of second-half indicators.