Pre-market briefing Pre-Market Briefing, April 1, 2026
Today at a Glance
Market Mood
Ahead of Wednesday's U.S. open, futures are extending their two-day climb. S&P 500 futures are +0.7%, Nasdaq futures +1.0%, and Dow futures +0.6%, as President Trump's comments that the Iran war could "end within a few weeks" continue to underpin optimism. Asian markets staged an explosive rebound on de-escalation hopes. The KOSPI rallied +8.44% (5,478) in a historic move, while Japan's Nikkei surged +5.24% (53,739). Hong Kong's Hang Seng added +1.88%. The Bank of Japan's Tankan large-manufacturer index climbed to 17, the highest since Q4 2021, and South Korea's March exports jumped +48.3% year-over-year, beating estimates and reinforcing expectations for a global recovery. WTI crude is trading sideways in the $102–$103 range, with tensions sustained as the April 6 deadline for an attack on Kharg Island (Iran's largest oil export terminal) approaches.
Today's Events
Today is loaded with pivotal employment and manufacturing data. At 8:15 a.m. ET, ADP private payrolls (March, consensus 40K, prior 66K) will be released, followed at 10 a.m. by both the ISM Manufacturing Index (March) and JOLTS Job Openings. The ISM Manufacturing reading is expected to come under pressure from the dual headwinds of tariffs and rising oil prices — a cautionary precedent: the Dallas Fed manufacturing index already collapsed to -16.3. After the close, $NKE (Nike) reported EPS of $0.35 (above the $0.28 consensus), but Q4 revenue guidance for a 2–4% decline and a warning of -20% China revenue sent shares plunging 9% after-hours, throwing cold water on consumer-sentiment expectations. Having hit a nine-year low ($47.85), further downside is feared in today's regular session.
Yesterday's Recap
Tuesday's U.S. session delivered the largest rally of the year on Iran de-escalation hopes. The Dow rose +2.49% (+1,125 points, 46,341), the S&P 500 gained +2.91% (6,528), and the Nasdaq jumped +3.83% (21,590) — the biggest one-day advance since May. The VIX plunged 17% to 25.39. Semiconductors ($ARM +10.4%, $INTC +7.1%) and the Magnificent Seven led the rebound, while energy ($XLE -1.13%) was the lone decliner. The simultaneous surge in gold ($GLD +3.8%) and silver ($SLV +7.3%) was also unusual. See Yesterday's Market Summary
Stocks in Focus
$NKE (Nike) sank 9% after-hours despite strong results, as the Q4 guidance shock is being closely watched for spillover effects on the broader consumer-staples sector and overall sentiment. With RSI at 26.45 already signaling oversold conditions, additional downside could reinforce a consumer-slowdown narrative. $NVDA (Nvidia), which bounced +5.62% yesterday, still shows lingering stochastic oversold readings, leaving room for further upside within a peace-deal rally. For $ARM (ARM Holdings), the question is whether momentum can be sustained after yesterday's +10.41% surge. See the Technical Signals Report
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