실적분석 2026년 7월 30일

Ferrari ($RACE) Q2 2026 Earnings Analysis — Revenue and EPS Beat, Full-Year Guidance Raised

Earnings Scorecard

Revenue: €1.938 billion (approximately $2.22 billion, +8% year-over-year, estimate $1.871 billion) ✅ Beat

EPS: Diluted €2.62 (approximately $3.00, adjusted basis the same, estimate $2.48) ✅ Beat

Guidance: Raised — 2026 net revenue approximately €7.60 billion, adjusted diluted EPS at least €9.68 (previously about €7.50 billion and at least €9.45)

Stock Reaction: Extended hours +2.00% ($393.42) — as of 07-30 21:04 Korea time

The Positives

Top-and-bottom-line beat: Net revenue €1.938 billion (+8%) and diluted EPS of €2.62 topped consensus

Full-year guidance raised: Revenue to about €7.6 billion and adjusted diluted EPS to at least €9.68

Price/mix strength: Higher revenue and operating profit despite fewer shipments, driven by improved personalization and sports car mix

Ferrari is a luxury sports car, racing, and lifestyle brand that prizes scarcity and per-unit profitability over volume. This quarter, planned model transitions trimmed deliveries, but a richer mix of high-priced, high-specification vehicles and greater personalization revenue lifted both the top line and earnings. Operating profit came in at €605 million (+10%), with operating margin of 31.2% — a modest improvement year-over-year — and industrial free cash flow of €276 million, up 39% year-over-year. Behind the upgraded outlook, the company noted that personalization is running stronger than expected and that currency headwinds, after hedging, are lighter than initially anticipated.

The Negatives

Lower shipments: Q2 deliveries of 3,366 units, down 128 year-over-year (model transition phase)

Slight EBITDA margin compression: 39.0% vs. 39.7% a year earlier, down 0.7 percentage points

Regional and FX pressure: Lower shipments in the Americas and China, with dollar and yen effects weighing on revenue

On volume alone, it is not a growth story. EMEA grew, but shipments fell in the Americas and in Mainland China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan, with overall deliveries declining amid deliberate model transitions. EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) of €755 million rose in absolute terms, but margin edged lower; higher industrial, marketing, and Formula 1 season ranking-related costs provided some offset. In addition, shareholder returns — dividends and buybacks — exceeded €800 million, swinging the company from net industrial cash of €388 million (end of March) to net industrial debt of €131 million (end of June). The capital return itself is a shareholder-friendly signal, but from a short-term balance sheet perspective, reduced cash flexibility could be read as a burden.

What Management Said

CEO Benedetto Vigna attributed the Q2 performance to disciplined execution and the sustained strength of the company's strategy, noting that the continued personalization trend enabled the raised full-year outlook. At the same event, he highlighted the launch of both the Luce and the 12Cilindri manual transmission model within a single quarter, emphasized that the lineup is the most complete in Ferrari's history, and stressed that demand is robust with the order book fully covering 2027 production. The market appears to have placed more weight on the message that "despite a volume slowdown, mix and personalizations protected earnings, and the full-year numbers were actually raised" than on the headline figures themselves. He added that the impact of the Middle East situation has been incorporated into guidance within the bounds of current visibility.

Market Reaction and What to Watch Next

The market digested the beat and raised guidance positively while balancing the lower shipments, regional divergence, and FX headwinds, keeping the reaction measured. Unlike high-volume automakers, for Ferrari the key question is not "how many cars were sold?" but "what mix, at what margin?" — and the fact that revenue, earnings, and cash flow improved despite lower deliveries, with guidance moving higher, provided support. That said, as a richly valued premium name, the swing factors for further upside are how much of the raised guidance is already in expectations and how second-half model transition costs and FX flow through to results.

Confirm whether the personalization revenue share remains the core of the company's raised assumptions through the second half.

Watch whether, as model transitions continue, lower deliveries are offset by mix improvement rather than weighing on revenue and margins.

Monitor FX and Middle East developments that could threaten the full-year targets of approximately €7.6 billion in revenue and adjusted diluted EPS of at least €9.68.