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7월 29일 · 실적분석
실적분석

Lam Research ($LRCX) FY2026 Q4 Earnings Analysis — Adjusted EPS and Revenue Both Beat, Strong Guidance

LRCX Lam Research 실적 요약

Lam Research ($LRCX) posted revenue of $6.72 billion and adjusted EPS of $1.82 in its June-ended quarter, exceeding market expectations ($6.671 billion in revenue and $1.68 in EPS). Backed by AI-driven demand, revenue, operating margin, and EPS all reached record highs, and the company issued strong guidance for the next quarter of approximately $8.1 billion in revenue and $1.95 in adjusted EPS, triggering after-hours buying momentum.

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Earnings Scorecard

Revenue: $6.72 billion (year-over-year +30.0%, expected $6.671 billion) ✅ Beat
EPS: $1.82 (expected $1.68, adjusted basis) ✅ Beat
Guidance: Raised — next quarter (September-ended) revenue $8.1 billion (±$400 million), adjusted EPS $2.15 (±$0.15)
Stock reaction: After-hours +6.28% ($268.19) — as of 07-30 06:00 KST
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What Went Well

Earnings surprise: Adjusted EPS of $1.82 significantly exceeded expectations of $1.68
Margin improvement: Adjusted gross margin 52.0%, operating margin 38.4%, both expanding from the prior quarter
Strong guidance: Next quarter revenue of approximately $8.1 billion and EPS of approximately $2.15
Semiconductor process equipment company Lam Research (LRCX) reported revenue of $6.72 billion in its June-ended quarter (FY2026 Q4), up roughly 30% from $5.17 billion a year earlier, and edged above the consensus estimate of $6.671 billion. Adjusted EPS came in at $1.82, topping the expected $1.68, and the company stated that revenue, operating margin, and EPS all reached quarterly records.
Profitability also improved. Adjusted gross margin came in at 52.0% and adjusted operating margin at 38.4%, both notably higher than the prior quarter (49.9% and 35.0%, respectively). System revenue of $4.25 billion and customer support and other revenue of $2.47 billion showed growth in both new equipment and services/spare parts, while by region the breakdown was Taiwan 27%, China 26%, and South Korea 20%. Most importantly, the midpoint of next quarter's revenue guidance is $8.1 billion, implying a significant step-up from the just-reported results, fueling expectations that AI-related capital investment momentum will continue.
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What Fell Short

China dependence: 26% of quarterly revenue is exposed to export-control variables
Guidance range: The next quarter revenue guidance has a wide tolerance of ±$400 million
Industry cyclicality: Semiconductor equipment demand can shift rapidly with customer investment cycles
Despite the strong results, structural risks remain. China accounts for roughly a quarter of revenue, meaning that any tightening of U.S.-China export controls or geopolitical tensions could disrupt equipment shipments and orders. Taiwan, China, and South Korea combined account for over 70% of revenue, so results are tied to the investment schedules of specific regions and large foundry and memory customers.
Next quarter's guidance also has a strong midpoint, but the wide tolerance bands of ±$400 million in revenue and ±$0.15 in EPS leave room for results to come in at the lower end. Given the cyclical nature of the semiconductor equipment industry, if customer capex cuts, inventory adjustments, and supply chain/tariff pressures all hit simultaneously, margins and growth could slow sharply within a single quarter, so it remains to be confirmed whether this strong guidance is sustainable.
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What Management Said

"Lam delivered record quarterly revenue, operating margin, and EPS in the June quarter as AI demand continues to reshape the semiconductor industry." — Tim Archer, President and CEO of Lam Research

"Our strategic investments and technology leadership are helping customers navigate rising manufacturing complexity, positioning Lam for a third consecutive year of outperformance versus the industry in 2026." — Tim Archer, President and CEO of Lam Research

CEO Tim Archer emphasized that, with AI demand reshaping the semiconductor industry, the quarter delivered record revenue, operating margin, and EPS. He expressed confidence that strategic investments and technology leadership are helping customers manage rising manufacturing complexity, positioning the company for a third consecutive year of outperformance versus the industry in 2026. The market interpreted these remarks not as a short-term flash but as a tone indicating that the company intends to lift both market share and profitability at the heart of the AI investment cycle. The next quarter's guidance also raises the bar on both revenue and earnings, suggesting management sees relatively high visibility into orders and shipments.
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Market Reaction and Key Points Ahead

Beyond the earnings beat, the next quarter's revenue and EPS guidance stepped up significantly from the prior quarter, reassuring the market that growth momentum has not stalled and fueling after-hours buying. The key takeaway is that the narrative of continued demand for etching and deposition equipment in advanced AI-related processes was reaffirmed by the numbers. How much of the after-hours rebound carries into the regular session will depend on flows from the next day onward.
Monitor how closely actual September-quarter revenue and EPS come to the guidance midpoints (revenue $8.1 billion, adjusted EPS $2.15).
Watch shifts in revenue mix by region (China, Taiwan, South Korea) and the impact of export controls on orders and shipments.
Check whether gross margin and operating margin hold at the levels guided for the next quarter (around 52% and 39.5%, respectively).
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