실적분석 2026년 8월 11일

Cardinal Health ($CAH) Q4 FY2026 Earnings Analysis — Adjusted EPS Beats Big, Revenue Slightly Misses, Issues FY2027 Guidance

Earnings Scorecard

Revenue: $63.7 billion (+6% YoY, vs. $65.105 billion estimate) ❌ Miss

EPS: Adjusted $2.91 (vs. $2.08 YoY, +40%; vs. $2.42 estimate) ✅ Beat

Guidance: Newly issued — FY2027 adjusted EPS $12.40–$12.60 (+13% to +15% adjusted YoY)

Stock Reaction: +0.35% after-hours ($238) — as of 20:44 KST on 08-11

The Positives

Adjusted EPS beats big: Q4 adjusted EPS of $2.91 came in well above the $2.42 estimate

Core earnings growth: Even excluding the tariff refund, adjusted EPS of $2.60 (+25%) beat consensus

Cash & shareholder returns: FY2026 operating cash flow of $5.2 billion and $1.4 billion in buybacks, with an additional $5.0 billion authorization

Pharmaceutical and Specialty Solutions segment earnings grew 21% year-over-year, driving quarterly results, while on a full-year basis all five operating segments delivered double-digit profit growth. The company also guided to double-digit adjusted EPS growth for FY2027, underscoring continued momentum.

The Negatives

Revenue miss vs. consensus: $63.7 billion fell short of the $65.105 billion estimate

Medical segment underperformance: Global Medical Products and Distribution revenue declined 2% year-over-year

One-offs & cost pressures: A $100 million tariff refund inflated profits, while full-year net interest expense rose 62%

Revenue growth continued but failed to meet market expectations, and the Medical segment was hit by a combination of lower distribution volumes and customer rebate recognition headwinds. The company's FY2027 adjusted free cash flow guidance of $3.5–$4.0 billion is below this year's result (~$5.0 billion), meaning underlying cash generation ex one-offs also warrants close attention.

What Management Said

CEO Jason Hollar characterized FY2026 as a standout year, noting that all segments posted double-digit profit growth even excluding the tariff refund. The market read the new full-year guidance as a confidence signal but is placing greater weight on whether the core earnings trajectory — ex one-off tariff benefits — is sustained.

Market Reaction and Key Things to Watch

The earnings beat and new full-year guidance offset the revenue miss, leaving the stock only modestly higher in extended trading. The market appears to be focusing less on the headline numbers and more on sustainable earnings power excluding the one-time tariff refund, as well as the credibility of the guidance.

Monitor whether revenue and profit growth in Pharmaceutical and Specialty Solutions next quarter supports the guidance range.

Track recovery in Medical segment profits ex the tariff refund, along with volume trends.

Follow through on whether FY2027 buybacks and free cash flow come in within company-provided ranges.