ZROZ 주가 전망 및 ETF 분석 - 배당·운용보수·보유종목·NAV·RSI·MACD

ZROZ

PIMCO 25+ Year Zero Coupon U.S. Treasury Index ETF

7월 28일 11:51 AM ET (한국 7/29 24:51)

$60.40

+0.62 ▲ +1.04%

ZROZ ETF is analyzed across 10 metrics including expense ratio, holdings, sector allocation, dividends, RSI, and MACD.

Total Expense Ratio

0.15%

Annual operating cost

Net Assets (AUM)

$1.3B

약 2조원

Holdings

24 items

Dividend Yield

5.38%

Management Style

Passive

Category ⓘ	Bonds - Treasury & Government	Asset Type ⓘ	Bonds	Return% 1Y ⓘ	-1.22%	Total Holdings ⓘ	24	Perf Week ⓘ	0.25%
ETF Type ⓘ	US Bonds	Active/Passive ⓘ	Passive	Return% 3Y ⓘ	-9.19%	AUM ⓘ	$1.3B	Perf Month ⓘ	-7.7%
Expense ⓘ	0.15%	NAV ⓘ	$59.89	Return% 5Y ⓘ	-13.78%	52W High ⓘ	-15.19%	Perf Quarter ⓘ	-4.51%
Dividend TTM ⓘ	$3.25 (5.38%)	Div Gr. 3/5Y ⓘ	9.8% 3.09%	Return% 10Y ⓘ	-5.2%	52W Low ⓘ	1.99%	Perf Half Y ⓘ	-7.22%
Flows% 1M ⓘ	5.8%	Flows% YTD ⓘ	-9.3%	Return% SI ⓘ	1.65%	Volatility(W/M) ⓘ	0.78% 0.8%	Perf YTD ⓘ	-5.99%
SMA20 ⓘ	-1.43%	SMA50 ⓘ	-2.82%	SMA200 ⓘ	-6.88%	RSI (14) ⓘ	39.08	Beta ⓘ	0.72
IPO ⓘ	2009/11/4	Prev Close ⓘ	$59.78	Perf Year ⓘ	-5.9%	Avg Volume ⓘ	0.63M	Price ⓘ	$60.4

📊 PIMCO 25+ Year Zero Coupon U.S. Treasury Index ETF (ZROZ) Investment Analysis

ETF Overview

PIMCO 25+ Year Zero Coupon U.S. Treasury Index ETF · Bonds - Treasury & Government

채권형 — 채권 ETF (만기 미상)

2009년 상장, 17년 운영 중.

PIMCO 25+ Year Zero Coupon U.S. Treasury Index ETF는 수수료 및 비용 차감 전 기준으로 ICE BofA Long US Treasury Principal STRIPS 지수의 총수익과 밀접하게 일치하는 투자 성과를 제공하고자 합니다. 자산의 최소 80%를 미국 국채의 마지막 원금 상환액을 나타내는 만기 25년 이상의 장기 국채 스트립(STRIPS) 채권들에 투자합니다.

📘 ZROZ ETF 자세히 알아보기 →

U.S.fixed-incometreasuriesbonds

규모: $1.3B 약 2조원
운용사: PIMCO
운용 방식: 패시브 (지수 추종)
상장일: 2009년

Cost Efficiency

Annual Expense Ratio · Category Rank · Long-Term Cost Impact

Average expense ratio — 0.15% annually

Mid-range within the Bonds - Treasury & Government category.

Effective Annual Expense Ratio (Net Expense Ratio)

평균권

0.15%

My positionMid-range

Low range Average High range

Actual Cost Simulation by Investment Amount

$100.0M

Annual Expense Ratio

$150K

Same as category average

Category Median Annual Cost

$150K

Based on expense ratio of 0.15%

10-Year Cumulative Expense Ratio (Long-term simulation assuming 7% annual market growth)

$2.7M

2.8% of returns you could have earned goes to the fund manager due to fees

💡 Because the expense ratio takes a slice of your assets every year, costs compound over 10 years and result in far greater losses than a simple sum (annual fee × 10). The 7% annual return assumption is based on the S&P 500's long-term average.

Defaults shown against $100K baseline portfolio. Adjust the slider to update the amount in real time.

Cheaper alternatives in the same category

VGIT

Vanguard Intermediate-Term Treasury ETF

0.03%

-0.12%p annually

VGSH

Vanguard Short-Term Treasury ETF

0.03%

-0.12%p annually

SCHR

Schwab Intermediate-Term U.S. Treasury ETF

0.03%

-0.12%p annually

* A lower fee does not necessarily mean a better ETF. Consider the tracked index, liquidity, and tax treatment as well.

Long-Term Performance

1-year · 3-year · 5-year · 10-year returns · vs. benchmark · drawdown defense

Lower-tier returns in its category

Long-term returns trail the category average by a wide margin.-19.0%p vs. benchmark (SPY) over 1Y.

ℹ️ The "1Y·3Y·5Y·10Y" periods below represent annualized returns (CAGR) measured backward from today. Example: "3Y +12%" means the investment grew at a compounded 12% per year over the past three years.

If you had invested 10 year(s) ago

$100.0M

Today's value

$58.6M

→

Total loss

$-41,374,930

Annualized -5.2%

ℹ️ How to read the return breakdown bar

Each period bar shows the share of this ETF's returns by source.

Price gains Price decline Dividends received

Mostly blue (80%+): Growth-style — price gains drive most returns
Mostly orange (70%+): Income-style — dividends drive most returns (watch out for after-tax drag)
Red + orange: Stagnant or declining price — dividends offset losses (common in covered-call and high-dividend funds)

1 Year

2025.07 ~ 2026.07

Annualized -1.22%

하위 25%

Price -5.90% + Dividend +4.68% = Total -1.22%/yr

Trailed the benchmark by 19.0%p annually

My positionBottom 25%

Low range Average High range

3 Years

2023.07 ~ 2026.07

Annualized -9.19% Cumulative -25.1%

하위 5%

Price -11.35% + Dividend +2.16% = Total -9.19%/yr

Trailed the benchmark by 28.2%p annually

My positionBottom 5%

Low range Average High range

5 Years

2021.07 ~ 2026.07

Annualized -13.78% Cumulative -52.4%

하위 5%

Price -16.89% + Dividend +3.11% = Total -13.78%/yr

Trailed the benchmark by 26.7%p annually

My positionBottom 5%

Low range Average High range

10Y

2016.07 ~ 2026.07

Annualized -5.20% Cumulative -41.4%

하위 5%

Price -7.91% + Dividend +2.71% = Total -5.20%/yr

Trailed the benchmark by 20.1%p annually

My positionBottom 5%

Low range Average High range

10Y Cumulative Total Return Curve

2016-07-28 start, based on a 100M KRW base — read the curve values directly as units of 100M KRW (e.g., 308 → 3.08억 / 308M KRW). Both this ETF and the benchmark are rebased to 100 on the same start date for comparison.

ZROZ · Price Only ZROZ · Price + Cumulative Dividends ZROZ · Dividend Reinvested S&P 500 (SPY)

150

300

450

ℹ️ Price Only: Excludes dividends and tracks pure stock price only. Covered-call and high-dividend ETFs often show a flat or declining line on this view, which is meaningful from a "principal preservation" standpoint. Price + Cumulative Dividend: Share count stays the same and received dividends are accumulated as cash. Closely matches your actual account total assets. Reinvested: Dividends are immediately used to buy additional shares (adjClose-based, the industry standard for total return). The wider the gap between the three lines, the easier it is to gauge the effectiveness of the dividend strategy.

Annual Return Comparison

ETF returns vs S&P 500 (SPY) by calendar year

ZROZ S&P 500 (SPY)

+40%

−40%

+14%

2017

-3%

2018

+20%

2019

+23%

2020

-5%

2021

-39%

2022

-2%

2023

-15%

2024

-2%

2025

-4%

2026 YTD

💡 SPY is an equity benchmark, so direct comparison with different asset classes is for reference only.

ℹ️ Returns from January 1 to December 31 of each year. The current year (2026) column is dimmed to indicate YTD (incomplete). If blue is higher than gray, the ETF outperformed the benchmark in that year.

Win rate vs S&P 500 (SPY)

2 / 9Y

Lags behind benchmark (22%)

+ 2026 YTD: Behind (-4.3% vs 8.5%)

2017 ✗

2018 ✓

2019 ✗

2020 ✓

2021 ✗

2022 ✗

2023 ✗

2024 ✗

2025 ✗

2026 ✗ YTD

💡 Win rates against SPY are for reference only, since the asset class differs.

ℹ️ Number of winning years versus S&P 500 (SPY) within a completed calendar year (1/1–12/31). The current year (YTD) is reported separately.

Downside Capture

🛡️ 40%

Falls less than the benchmark in drawdowns — strong downside protection

<85% (Defend) 85~110% (Track) >110% (Lag)

💡 Bonds often show negative correlation with equities, limiting how this metric should be interpreted.

ℹ️ Average % drop of this ETF when S&P 500 (SPY) is −1%. Based on daily returns over the past 3 years (only days where the benchmark is negative).

Risk Profile

Volatility · Beta · Max Drawdown · Sharpe · Drawdown Recovery History

Overall Risk Grade

Bond Benchmark

Bond ETFs are naturally less volatile than stocks, so it only makes sense to compare them with other bond ETFs. You should also factor in the inverse relationship between interest rates and bond prices.

🏦 Bond ETFs — Low volatility and low Beta are the norm

Bonds have far lower volatility than stocks, and a lower Beta versus equity benchmarks. An "stable" rating is the natural result; meaningful comparison should be made against bond indices (e.g., AGG/TLT).

Beta (market sensitivity)

하위 5%

0.72

If the market rises +10% +7.2%

If the market falls -10% -7.2%

My positionBottom 5%

Low range Average High range

ℹ️ A beta of 1.0 moves in line with the market. Above 1 means it moves more than the market; below 1 means less.

Average daily range (last 1 month)

하위 25%

±0.80%

S&P 500 typically ±1.0~1.3% · Bond funds ±0.3% · Leveraged ETFs ±3% or more

Annual volatility trend (past 10 years)

ℹ️ This ETF's average daily price swing. 1% means "on average, moves about ±1% per day." The rolling curve below shows the annualized volatility (long-term standard measure) over time.

Max Drawdown · Past 10 years

-62.9%

Drawdown duration: 44 months

2020-03-09 → 2023-10-19

Still recovering

2015-07-31 Worst -61% 2026-07-01

ℹ️ Maximum drawdown is the largest peak-to-trough decline in the past. It represents the worst-case loss a long-term investor must psychologically endure.

Sharpe Ratio (Risk-Adjusted Return)

-0.27

Poor — Underperforms the risk-free rate

ℹ️ Annualized return minus the risk-free rate (3% annualized), divided by annualized volatility. A value above 1.0 is generally considered good risk-adjusted performance.

Estimated Monthly Maximum Loss (VaR 95%)

-10.6%

Historically, monthly losses exceeding this figure occurred only5%of the time.

ℹ️ A statistical estimate meaning "with 95% probability, monthly losses will not exceed this amount." The remaining 5% corresponds to crisis-level events such as financial crises or pandemics.

Dividend Analysis

Yield · Dividend history · After-tax income calculator

Bond distribution — 5.38% annually

Coupon interest is the primary source.5-year dividend growth rate: +3.1%.

ℹ️ Bond ETF distributions are mostly coupon income. Distributions may rise when interest rates increase, but this should be considered alongside the resulting price decline.

배당수익률

5.38%

주당 배당

$3.25

연간 기준

5년 성장률

3.1%

지급 주기

분기배당

4월 · 10월 · 12월

🏆 3년 연속 배당 증가

📊 총 이력 2009~2026 (65건)

연도별 배당 총액 추이

주당 배당금을 연 단위로 합산한 금액입니다. 막대가 우상향이면 매년 배당이 늘어나고 있다는 뜻입니다.

$2.63 -19.3%

2016

$3.07 +16.8%

2017

$3.27 +6.5%

2018

$2.96 -9.5%

2019

$2.74 -7.4%

2020

$2.44 -10.9%

2021

$2.41 -1.2%

2022

$3.00 +24.5%

2023

$3.14 +4.7%

2024

$3.19 +1.6%

2025

$X.XX 그 해 총 배당금 +X% 전년 대비 증가 -X% 감소

최근 배당 이력 총 65건

아래로 스크롤하면 과거 배당 이력을 볼 수 있습니다.

배당락일

주당 금액

지급일

당시 수익률

2026-04-01

$0.820

—

6.34%

2025-12-31

$0.880

—

6.27%

2025-10-01

$0.740

—

5.81%

2025-07-01

$0.790

—

5.91%

2025-04-01

$0.780

—

5.44%

2024-12-31

$0.840

—

4.58%

2024-10-01

$0.760

—

4.59%

2024-07-01

$0.770

—

5.26%

2024-04-01

$0.770

—

4.96%

2023-12-28

$0.780

—

4.20%

2023-10-02

$0.710

—

4.94%

2023-07-03

$0.780

—

3.05%

2023-04-03

$0.730

—

2.71%

2022-12-29

$0.620

—

3.44%

2022-10-03

$0.630

—

2.59%

2022-07-01

$0.610

—

2.76%

2022-04-01

$0.550

—

2.25%

2021-12-30

$0.640

—

2.03%

2021-10-01

$0.630

—

2.06%

2021-07-01

$0.560

—

2.12%

2021-04-01

$0.610

—

2.49%

2020-12-30

$0.650

—

1.68%

2020-10-01

$0.570

—

1.72%

2020-07-01

$0.670

—

1.79%

2020-04-01

$0.850

—

1.74%

2019-12-30

$0.860

—

2.18%

2019-10-01

$0.700

—

2.64%

2019-07-01

$0.670

—

3.06%

2019-04-01

$0.730

—

3.44%

2018-12-28

$0.950

—

3.63%

2018-10-01

$0.770

—

3.62%

2018-07-02

$0.770

—

3.42%

2018-04-02

$0.782

—

3.38%

2017-12-28

$0.782

—

3.46%

2017-10-02

$0.770

—

3.81%

2017-07-03

$0.800

—

3.14%

2017-04-03

$0.720

—

3.00%

2016-12-28

$1.11

—

3.30%

2016-10-03

$1.00

—

1.83%

2016-07-01

$0.520

—

1.58%

2015-12-29

$0.930

—

3.66%

2015-09-30

$0.730

—

2.90%

2015-06-30

$0.850

—

3.15%

2015-03-31

$0.750

—

2.50%

2014-12-29

$0.780

—

2.01%

2014-09-30

$0.176

—

3.44%

2014-06-30

$0.760

—

3.42%

2014-03-31

$0.680

—

3.71%

2013-12-27

$1.24

—

5.59%

2013-09-30

$0.740

—

3.84%

2013-06-28

$0.800

—

4.53%

2013-03-28

$0.770

—

4.09%

2012-12-27

$1.08

—

4.03%

2012-09-28

$0.920

—

3.64%

2012-06-29

$0.705

—

3.49%

2012-03-30

$0.740

—

4.20%

2011-12-28

$1.05

—

3.78%

2011-09-30

$0.728

—

3.59%

2011-06-30

$0.825

—

5.89%

2011-03-31

$0.736

—

5.89%

2010-12-29

$0.856

—

5.36%

2010-09-30

$0.812

—

3.41%

2010-06-30

$0.880

—

2.56%

2010-03-31

$0.742

—

1.90%

2009-12-29

$0.506

—

0.74%

* "배당락일"은 배당받으려면 이 날 이전에 주식을 보유해야 하는 기준일입니다. 지급일·당시 수익률은 일부 종목에서 데이터가 없을 수 있습니다.

💰 내가 $100K 투자한다면

연간 배당금 (세후) $5K

5년 누적 (세후) $24K

* 환율 1 가정, 배당소득세 15% 반영. 5년 누적은 배당 성장률 연 3.09% 가정.

* Qualified dividend middle-bracket approximation. Actual rate varies by total income.

Overall investment appeal

What this ETF fits best — strengths, weaknesses, and target investor profile

Warrants a closer look Several metrics show warning signs. Compare it with similar ETFs before deciding.

🎯 목적별 적합도

내가 이 ETF를 어떤 목적으로 활용할 수 있는지 확인하세요.

🌳

장기 보유

수년 이상 꾸준히 모아갈 때

낮음

💵

배당 인컴

매월·분기 현금흐름이 목적일 때

매우 적합

⚡

단기 트레이딩

며칠~몇 주 단기 방향성 매매

매우 낮음

🧩

포트폴리오 보조

자산 배분·헤지 용도

매우 적합

👤

이런 분에게 어울려요

Investors seeking portfolio stability

✅ 강점

뚜렷한 강점이 드러나지 않아요.

⚠️ 약점·주의사항

📈Long-term returns are well below peers
⚠️Volatility is above average
🎯Trails benchmark by -26.7%p annually

Portfolio Composition

What's actually inside — sector weights and top holdings

채권 포트폴리오

주식과 달리 "섹터 = 만기·신용등급"으로 해석해야 해요.

ℹ️ 왜 구성을 봐야 하나요?

ETF의 실제 성과는 담고 있는 종목과 섹터에서 나와요. 이름이 "S&P 500"이라도 기술주 비중이 유난히 높을 수 있고, "배당주 ETF"라도 몇몇 대형주에 쏠려 있을 수 있어요. 라벨보다 실제 구성을 확인하는 게 중요해요.

🔬 집중도 한눈에 보기

총 보유종목

20개

상위 10개 비중

55.3%

최대 단일 종목

5.89%

집중도(HHI)

510

보통

⚠️ 소수 종목·섹터에 집중되어 있어, 해당 종목/섹터가 흔들리면 ETF 전체가 크게 영향을 받아요.

📋 상위 보유 종목 Top 10 Top 10이 전체의 55.3% 차지

티커 옆의 점 색상 = 섹터 구분 (섹터 차트와 동일 색상)

BNO UNITED STATES GOVT

5.89%

BNO UNITED STATES GOVT

5.88%

BNO UNITED STATES GOVT

5.80%

BNO UNITED STATES GOVT

5.77%

BNO UNITED STATES GOVT

5.48%

BNO UNITED STATES GOVT

5.39%

BNO UNITED STATES GOVT

5.34%

BNO UNITED STATES GOVT

5.34%

BNO UNITED STATES GOVT

5.23%

#10

BNO UNITED STATES GOVT

5.19%

Category Peers

Category: Bonds - Treasury & Government

같은 카테고리 6종 중 AUM 6/6위 · 보수율 4/6위

카테고리: Bonds - Treasury & Government

ℹ️ 왜 비교해야 하나요?

같은 카테고리 ETF끼리는 보수율·규모(AUM)·배당률을 비교해 볼 가치가 있어요. 보수율은 낮을수록 장기 수익에 유리하고, AUM이 크면 운용 안정성이 높아요. ▲ 표시는 ZROZ보다 유리, ▼ 표시는 ZROZ보다 불리를 뜻해요.

티커	ETF명	보수율	AUM	보유종목	배당률	YTD	1년
ZROZ	PIMCO 25+ Year Zero Coupon U.S. Treasury Index ETF	0.15%	$1.3B	24	5.38%	-5.99%	-5.90%
TLT	iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF	0.15%	$42.7B ▲	48	4.66% ▼	-	-3.10% ▲
TLH	iShares 10-20 Year Treasury Bond ETF	0.15%	$11.0B ▲	61	4.55% ▼	-	-2.21% ▲
SPTL	State Street SPDR Portfolio Long Term Treasury ETF	0.03% ▲	$10.5B ▲	101	4.29% ▼	-	-2.30% ▲
VGLT	Vanguard Long-Term Treasury ETF	0.03% ▲	$10.3B ▲	100	4.69% ▼	-	-2.65% ▲
EDV	Vanguard Extended Duration Treasury ETF	0.05% ▲	$3.4B ▲	81	5.27% ▼	-	-4.98% ▲

AUM 내림차순 정렬 · ▲ ZROZ보다 유리 · ▼ ZROZ보다 불리

Leveraged & Covered Call ETFs on the Same Theme

ETFs that approach the same theme with a different strategy

9 ETFs tracking the same theme as ZROZ using leveraged or covered call strategies (Leverage 2 · Inverse 3 · Covered Call 4)

Not direct derivatives of ZROZ, but ETFs that cover the same theme via a different strategy.

ℹ️ Which ETFs are included?

Among ETFs whose theme (category or sector) overlaps with ZROZ, some use special strategies. Leveraged ETFs aim for 2–3× the daily move, Inverse ETFs seek opposite-direction returns, and Covered Call ETFs generate monthly income from option premiums.

⚠️ Caution: Long-Term Holding

Leveraged and inverse ETFs track only the daily return. With high volatility, holding them for longer periods causes cumulative volatility decay—returns diverge further from the underlying index. They are meant for short-term trading.

📈 Leverage 2 ETFs that amplify the same theme by 2-3x (high volatility)