VCR 주가 전망 및 ETF 분석 - 배당·운용보수·보유종목·NAV·RSI·MACD

VCR

Vanguard Consumer Discretionary ETF

7월 28일 12:10 PM ET (한국 7/29 01:10)

$377.09

+5.08 ▲ +1.37%

VCR ETF is analyzed across 10 metrics including expense ratio, holdings, sector allocation, dividends, RSI, and MACD.

Total Expense Ratio

0.09%

Annual operating cost

Net Assets (AUM)

$5.7B

약 8조원

Holdings

285 items

Dividend Yield

0.76%

Management Style

Passive

Category ⓘ	US Equities - Industry Sector	Asset Type ⓘ	Equities (Stocks)	Return% 1Y ⓘ	-1%	Total Holdings ⓘ	285	Perf Week ⓘ	-2.94%
ETF Type ⓘ	US Equities	Active/Passive ⓘ	Passive	Return% 3Y ⓘ	8.73%	AUM ⓘ	$5.7B	Perf Month ⓘ	-1.73%
Expense ⓘ	0.09%	NAV ⓘ	$372.18	Return% 5Y ⓘ	4.63%	52W High ⓘ	-8.98%	Perf Quarter ⓘ	-4.45%
Dividend TTM ⓘ	$2.86 (0.76%)	Div Gr. 3/5Y ⓘ	10.84% -9.15%	Return% 10Y ⓘ	12.61%	52W Low ⓘ	8.83%	Perf Half Y ⓘ	-7.3%
Flows% 1M ⓘ	-2.4%	Flows% YTD ⓘ	-4.42%	Return% SI ⓘ	10.74%	Volatility(W/M) ⓘ	1.3% 1.46%	Perf YTD ⓘ	-4.27%
SMA20 ⓘ	-3.45%	SMA50 ⓘ	-3.49%	SMA200 ⓘ	-2.95%	RSI (14) ⓘ	39.99	Beta ⓘ	1.25
IPO ⓘ	2004/1/30	Prev Close ⓘ	$372.01	Perf Year ⓘ	0.55%	Avg Volume ⓘ	0.06M	Price ⓘ	$377.09

📊 Vanguard Consumer Discretionary ETF (VCR) Investment Analysis

ETF Overview

Vanguard Consumer Discretionary ETF · US Equities - Industry Sector

경기소비재 섹터 — 경기소비재 섹터 ETF (자동차·여행·소매)

2004년 상장, 22년 운영 중.

Vanguard Consumer Discretionary Index Fund ETF Shares는 MSCI US Investable Market Index/Consumer Discretionary 25/50의 성과를 추종합니다. 이 ETF는 GICS 기준 경기소비재 섹터 내 미국 대·중·소형주 주식으로 구성된 MSCI US Investable Market Index/Consumer Discretionary 25/50의 성과를 추종하도록 설계된 지수 투자 접근법을 사용합니다. 운용사는 자산 전부를 지수 구성 주식에 투자하고 각 주식을 지수 내 비중과 유사한 비율로 보유하여 타겟 지수를 복제하고자 합니다. 비분산형입니다.

📘 VCR ETF 자세히 알아보기 →

U.S.equityconsumer-discretionary

규모: $5.7B 약 8조원
운용사: Vanguard
운용 방식: 패시브 (지수 추종)
상장일: 2004년

Cost Efficiency

Annual Expense Ratio · Category Rank · Long-Term Cost Impact

Low-cost ETF — 0.09% annually

상위 25% within US Equities - Industry Sector. For a ₩100M investment, roughly ₩90,000/year.

Effective Annual Expense Ratio (Net Expense Ratio)

상위 25%

0.09%

My positionTop 25%

Low range Average High range

Actual Cost Simulation by Investment Amount

$100.0M

Annual Expense Ratio

$90K

Save $410K per year vs. category average

Category Median Annual Cost

$500K

Based on expense ratio of 0.50%

10-Year Cumulative Expense Ratio (Long-term simulation assuming 7% annual market growth)

$1.6M

1.7% of returns you could have earned goes to the fund manager due to fees

💡 Because the expense ratio takes a slice of your assets every year, costs compound over 10 years and result in far greater losses than a simple sum (annual fee × 10). The 7% annual return assumption is based on the S&P 500's long-term average.

Defaults shown against $100K baseline portfolio. Adjust the slider to update the amount in real time.

Cheaper alternatives in the same category

State Street Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF

0.08%

-0.01%p annually

XLF

State Street Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF

0.08%

-0.01%p annually

* A lower fee does not necessarily mean a better ETF. Consider the tracked index, liquidity, and tax treatment as well.

Long-Term Performance

1-year · 3-year · 5-year · 10-year returns · vs. benchmark · drawdown defense

Returns slightly below average

하위 25% vs. US Equities - Industry Sector.-18.8%p vs. benchmark (SPY) over 1Y.

ℹ️ The "1Y·3Y·5Y·10Y" periods below represent annualized returns (CAGR) measured backward from today. Example: "3Y +12%" means the investment grew at a compounded 12% per year over the past three years.

If you had invested 10 year(s) ago

$100.0M

Today's value

$327.9M

→

Total gain

+$227.9M

Annualized +12.6%

1 Year

2025.07 ~ 2026.07

Annualized -1.00%

하위 25%

Trailed the benchmark by 18.8%p annually

My positionBottom 25%

Low range Average High range

3 Years

2023.07 ~ 2026.07

Annualized +8.73% Cumulative +28.5%

하위 25%

Trailed the benchmark by 10.3%p annually

My positionBottom 25%

Low range Average High range

5 Years

2021.07 ~ 2026.07

Annualized +4.63% Cumulative +25.4%

하위 25%

Trailed the benchmark by 8.3%p annually

My positionBottom 25%

Low range Average High range

10Y

2016.07 ~ 2026.07

Annualized +12.61% Cumulative +227.9%

평균권

Trailed the benchmark by 2.3%p annually

My positionMid-range

Low range Average High range

10Y Cumulative Total Return Curve

2016-07-28 start, based on a 100M KRW base — read the curve values directly as units of 100M KRW (e.g., 308 → 3.08억 / 308M KRW). Both this ETF and the benchmark are rebased to 100 on the same start date for comparison.

VCR · Price Only VCR · Price + Cumulative Dividends VCR · Dividend Reinvested S&P 500 (SPY)

150

250

350

450

ℹ️ Price Only: Excludes dividends and tracks pure stock price only. Covered-call and high-dividend ETFs often show a flat or declining line on this view, which is meaningful from a "principal preservation" standpoint. Price + Cumulative Dividend: Share count stays the same and received dividends are accumulated as cash. Closely matches your actual account total assets. Reinvested: Dividends are immediately used to buy additional shares (adjClose-based, the industry standard for total return). The wider the gap between the three lines, the easier it is to gauge the effectiveness of the dividend strategy.

Annual Return Comparison

ETF returns vs S&P 500 (SPY) by calendar year

VCR S&P 500 (SPY)

+50%

−50%

+22%

2017

-4%

2018

+27%

2019

+47%

2020

+26%

2021

-37%

2022

+41%

2023

+25%

2024

+7%

2025

-4%

2026 YTD

ℹ️ Returns from January 1 to December 31 of each year. The current year (2026) column is dimmed to indicate YTD (incomplete). If blue is higher than gray, the ETF outperformed the benchmark in that year.

Win rate vs S&P 500 (SPY)

4 / 9Y

Roughly even with benchmark (44%)

+ 2026 YTD: Behind (-3.5% vs 8.5%)

2017 ✓

2018 ✓

2019 ✗

2020 ✓

2021 ✗

2022 ✗

2023 ✓

2024 ✗

2025 ✗

2026 ✗ YTD

ℹ️ Number of winning years versus S&P 500 (SPY) within a completed calendar year (1/1–12/31). The current year (YTD) is reported separately.

Downside Capture

⚠️ 130%

Falls more than the benchmark — vulnerable in drawdowns

<85% (Defend) 85~110% (Track) >110% (Lag)

ℹ️ Average % drop of this ETF when S&P 500 (SPY) is −1%. Based on daily returns over the past 3 years (only days where the benchmark is negative).

Risk Profile

Volatility · Beta · Max Drawdown · Sharpe · Drawdown Recovery History

Overall Risk Grade

Moderate Risk

Volatility is around market average. Be prepared for losses of roughly -30% to -40% in major downturns.

Beta (market sensitivity)

하위 25%

1.25

If the market rises +10% +12.5%

If the market falls -10% -12.5%

My positionBottom 25%

Low range Average High range

ℹ️ A beta of 1.0 moves in line with the market. Above 1 means it moves more than the market; below 1 means less.

Average daily range (last 1 month)

평균권

±1.46%

S&P 500 typically ±1.0~1.3% · Bond funds ±0.3% · Leveraged ETFs ±3% or more

Annual volatility trend (past 10 years)

ℹ️ This ETF's average daily price swing. 1% means "on average, moves about ±1% per day." The rolling curve below shows the annualized volatility (long-term standard measure) over time.

Max Drawdown · Past 10 years

-39.2%

Drawdown duration: 13 months

2021-11-19 → 2022-12-28

Recovered in about 1.9 years

2015-07-31 Worst -38% 2026-07-01

ℹ️ Maximum drawdown is the largest peak-to-trough decline in the past. It represents the worst-case loss a long-term investor must psychologically endure.

Sharpe Ratio (Risk-Adjusted Return)

0.39

Weak — Low risk-adjusted returns

ℹ️ Annualized return minus the risk-free rate (3% annualized), divided by annualized volatility. A value above 1.0 is generally considered good risk-adjusted performance.

Estimated Monthly Maximum Loss (VaR 95%)

-8.7%

Historically, monthly losses exceeding this figure occurred only5%of the time.

ℹ️ A statistical estimate meaning "with 95% probability, monthly losses will not exceed this amount." The remaining 5% corresponds to crisis-level events such as financial crises or pandemics.

Dividend Analysis

Yield · Dividend history · After-tax income calculator

Pays dividends, but at a relatively low rate — 0.76% annually

Closer to a blend of growth and dividends.5-year dividend growth rate: -9.2%.

배당수익률

0.76%

주당 배당

$2.86

연간 기준

5년 성장률

-9.2%

지급 주기

분기배당

3월 · 9월 · 12월

🏆 3년 연속 배당 증가

📊 총 이력 2004~2026 (52건)

연도별 배당 총액 추이

주당 배당금을 연 단위로 합산한 금액입니다. 막대가 우상향이면 매년 배당이 늘어나고 있다는 뜻입니다.

$2.05 +27.1%

2016

$1.88 -8.4%

2017

$2.06 +9.5%

2018

$2.23 +8.1%

2019

$4.71 +111.5%

2020

$2.71 -42.5%

2021

$2.14 -20.9%

2022

$2.55 +19.0%

2023

$2.79 +9.6%

2024

$2.91 +4.4%

2025

$X.XX 그 해 총 배당금 +X% 전년 대비 증가 -X% 감소

최근 배당 이력 총 52건

아래로 스크롤하면 과거 배당 이력을 볼 수 있습니다.

배당락일

주당 금액

지급일

당시 수익률

2026-03-24

$0.719

—

1.01%

2025-12-17

$0.751

—

0.90%

2025-09-24

$0.687

—

0.92%

2025-06-26

$0.703

—

1.01%

2025-03-25

$0.772

—

0.86%

2024-12-18

$0.660

—

0.89%

2024-09-27

$0.825

—

1.01%

2024-06-28

$0.667

—

1.01%

2024-03-22

$0.639

—

1.01%

2023-12-19

$0.585

—

0.83%

2023-09-28

$0.721

—

1.19%

2023-06-29

$0.546

—

0.88%

2023-03-24

$0.695

—

1.18%

2022-12-15

$0.661

—

1.22%

2022-09-28

$0.565

—

1.49%

2022-06-23

$0.450

—

1.33%

2022-03-24

$0.464

—

1.04%

2021-12-16

$0.655

—

0.83%

2021-09-29

$1.55

—

0.65%

2021-06-21

$0.388

—

1.59%

2021-03-26

$0.110

—

1.52%

2020-09-11

$3.79

—

2.62%

2020-06-22

$0.547

—

1.13%

2020-03-10

$0.366

—

1.53%

2019-12-16

$0.749

—

1.20%

2019-09-26

$0.589

—

1.14%

2019-06-21

$0.459

—

1.42%

2019-03-21

$0.429

—

1.21%

2018-12-13

$0.560

—

1.62%

2018-09-24

$0.553

—

1.42%

2018-06-28

$0.551

—

1.43%

2018-03-16

$0.395

—

1.38%

2017-12-14

$0.505

—

1.68%

2017-09-27

$0.536

—

1.46%

2017-06-28

$0.428

—

1.42%

2017-03-24

$0.412

—

1.47%

2016-12-14

$0.712

—

1.92%

2016-09-20

$0.474

—

2.39%

2016-06-21

$0.405

—

2.02%

2016-03-21

$0.463

—

1.69%

2015-12-23

$0.469

—

1.31%

2015-09-23

$1.15

—

0.96%

2013-12-20

$0.913

—

1.95%

2012-12-20

$1.15

—

2.63%

2011-12-21

$0.853

—

2.37%

2010-12-22

$0.600

—

1.70%

2009-12-22

$0.437

—

2.60%

2008-12-22

$0.786

—

2.54%

2007-12-14

$0.460

—

1.73%

2006-12-18

$0.470

—

1.28%

2005-12-22

$0.308

—

1.24%

2004-12-22

$0.350

—

0.64%

* "배당락일"은 배당받으려면 이 날 이전에 주식을 보유해야 하는 기준일입니다. 지급일·당시 수익률은 일부 종목에서 데이터가 없을 수 있습니다.

💰 내가 $100K 투자한다면

연간 배당금 (세후) $645

5년 누적 (세후) $3K

* 환율 1 가정, 배당소득세 15% 반영. 5년 누적은 배당 성장률 연 -9.15% 가정.

* Qualified dividend middle-bracket approximation. Actual rate varies by total income.

Overall investment appeal

What this ETF fits best — strengths, weaknesses, and target investor profile

Strengths and weaknesses both present Check the fit below to see whether it matches your investing goal.

🎯 목적별 적합도

내가 이 ETF를 어떤 목적으로 활용할 수 있는지 확인하세요.

🌳

장기 보유

수년 이상 꾸준히 모아갈 때

보통

💵

배당 인컴

매월·분기 현금흐름이 목적일 때

부적합

⚡

단기 트레이딩

며칠~몇 주 단기 방향성 매매

매우 낮음

🧩

포트폴리오 보조

자산 배분·헤지 용도

낮음

👤

이런 분에게 어울려요

Long-term and recurring investors

✅ 강점

💸Low cost — 0.09% annually

⚠️ 약점·주의사항

📈Long-term returns trail the average
🎯Trails benchmark by -8.3%p annually

Portfolio Composition

What's actually inside — sector weights and top holdings

289개 종목으로 구성

상위 섹터는 Consumer Cyclical (89%)

ℹ️ 왜 구성을 봐야 하나요?

ETF의 실제 성과는 담고 있는 종목과 섹터에서 나와요. 이름이 "S&P 500"이라도 기술주 비중이 유난히 높을 수 있고, "배당주 ETF"라도 몇몇 대형주에 쏠려 있을 수 있어요. 라벨보다 실제 구성을 확인하는 게 중요해요.

🔬 집중도 한눈에 보기

총 보유종목

289개

상위 10개 비중

57.9%

최대 단일 종목

21.05%

집중도(HHI)

804

보통

⚠️ 소수 종목·섹터에 집중되어 있어, 해당 종목/섹터가 흔들리면 ETF 전체가 크게 영향을 받아요.

🥧 섹터 비중

Consumer Cyclical

89.1%

Consumer Defensive

1.0%

Technology

1.0%

Industrials

0.8%

Real Estate

0.1%

Healthcare

0.1%

Financial

0.1%

Communication Services

0.0%

📋 상위 보유 종목 Top 10 Top 10이 전체의 57.9% 차지

티커 옆의 점 색상 = 섹터 구분 (섹터 차트와 동일 색상)

#1 AMZN Amazon.com Inc

21.05%

#2 TSLA Tesla Inc

16.62%

#3 HD Home Depot Inc/The

5.31%

#4 MCD McDonald's Corp

3.69%

#5 TJX TJX Cos Inc/The

2.74%

#6 LOW Lowe's Cos Inc

2.26%

#7 BKNG Booking Holdings Inc

2.09%

#8 SBUX Starbucks Corp

1.70%

#9 ORLY O'Reilly Automotive Inc

1.24%

#10 RCL Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd

1.24%

Category Peers

Category: US Equities - Industry Sector

같은 카테고리 6종 중 AUM 2/6위 · 보수율 3/6위

카테고리: US Equities - Industry Sector

ℹ️ 왜 비교해야 하나요?

같은 카테고리 ETF끼리는 보수율·규모(AUM)·배당률을 비교해 볼 가치가 있어요. 보수율은 낮을수록 장기 수익에 유리하고, AUM이 크면 운용 안정성이 높아요. ▲ 표시는 VCR보다 유리, ▼ 표시는 VCR보다 불리를 뜻해요.

티커	ETF명	보수율	AUM	보유종목	배당률	YTD	1년
VCR	Vanguard Consumer Discretionary ETF	0.09%	$5.7B	285	0.76%	-4.27%	+0.55%
XLY	State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF	0.08% ▲	$21.1B ▲	50	0.81% ▲	-	-1.42% ▼
FDIS	Fidelity MSCI Consumer Discretionary Index ETF	0.08% ▲	$1.6B ▼	245	0.76%	-	+0.59% ▲
IYC	iShares U.S. Consumer Discretionary ETF	0.38% ▼	$1.1B ▼	163	0.52% ▼	-	-2.96% ▼
XRT	State Street SPDR S&P Retail ETF	0.35% ▼	$509M ▼	77	0.75% ▼	-	+9.50% ▲
RSPD	Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight Consumer Discretionary ETF	0.4% ▼	$303M ▼	50	0.88% ▲	-	-0.44% ▼

AUM 내림차순 정렬 · ▲ VCR보다 유리 · ▼ VCR보다 불리

Leveraged & Covered Call ETFs on the Same Theme

ETFs that approach the same theme with a different strategy

5 ETFs tracking the same theme as VCR using leveraged or covered call strategies (Leverage 4 · Covered Call 1)

Not direct derivatives of VCR, but ETFs that cover the same theme via a different strategy.

ℹ️ Which ETFs are included?

Among ETFs whose theme (category or sector) overlaps with VCR, some use special strategies. Leveraged ETFs aim for 2–3× the daily move, Inverse ETFs seek opposite-direction returns, and Covered Call ETFs generate monthly income from option premiums.

⚠️ Caution: Long-Term Holding

Leveraged and inverse ETFs track only the daily return. With high volatility, holding them for longer periods causes cumulative volatility decay—returns diverge further from the underlying index. They are meant for short-term trading.

📈 Leverage 4 ETFs that amplify the same theme by 2-3x (high volatility)