UCO 주가 전망 및 ETF 분석 - 배당·운용보수·보유종목·NAV·RSI·MACD

UCO

ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Crude Oil 2x Shares

7월 28일 2:09 PM ET (한국 7/29 03:09)

$39.79

-4.14 ▼ -9.42%

UCO ETF is analyzed across 10 metrics including expense ratio, holdings, sector allocation, dividends, RSI, and MACD.

Total Expense Ratio

0.95%

Annual operating cost

Net Assets (AUM)

$450M

약 6168억원

Holdings

10 items

Dividend Yield

Management Style

Passive

Category ⓘ	Commodities & Metals - Leveraged / Inverse	Asset Type ⓘ	Commodities & Metals	Return% 1Y ⓘ	83.88%	Total Holdings ⓘ	10	Perf Week ⓘ	-4%
ETF Type ⓘ	Global Commodities & Metals	Active/Passive ⓘ	Passive	Return% 3Y ⓘ	18.29%	AUM ⓘ	$450M	Perf Month ⓘ	16.14%
Expense ⓘ	0.95%	NAV ⓘ	$43.74	Return% 5Y ⓘ	18.28%	52W High ⓘ	-24.84%	Perf Quarter ⓘ	-7.27%
Dividend TTM ⓘ	-	Div Gr. 3/5Y ⓘ	-	Return% 10Y ⓘ	-10.53%	52W Low ⓘ	119.59%	Perf Half Y ⓘ	84.9%
Flows% 1M ⓘ	7.68%	Flows% YTD ⓘ	-44.11%	Return% SI ⓘ	-23.86%	Volatility(W/M) ⓘ	2.75% 3.84%	Perf YTD ⓘ	105.95%
SMA20 ⓘ	5.3%	SMA50 ⓘ	-3.15%	SMA200 ⓘ	27.34%	RSI (14) ⓘ	50.58	Beta ⓘ	0.2
IPO ⓘ	2008/11/25	Prev Close ⓘ	$43.93	Perf Year ⓘ	69.03%	Avg Volume ⓘ	3.72M	Price ⓘ	$39.79

📊 ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Crude Oil 2x Shares (UCO) Investment Analysis

ETF Overview

ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Crude Oil 2x Shares · Commodities & Metals - Leveraged / Inverse

레버리지형 — 지수의 2~3배 방향으로 추종 (단기 투자용 · 고위험)

2008년 상장, 18년 운영 중.

ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Crude Oil은 수수료 및 비용 차감 전 기준으로 Bloomberg Commodity Balanced WTI Crude Oil 지수 일간 성과의 2배(2x)에 해당하는 일간 투자 성과를 목표로 합니다. 정상적인 상황에서 서부 텍사스산 원유(WTI)를 기초로 하는 스왑, 선물, 선도 및 옵션 계약 등의 금융 상품에 투자하며, 원유에 직접 투자하지는 않습니다.

📘 UCO ETF 자세히 알아보기 →

commodityfuturesoilleverage

규모: $450M 약 6168억원
운용사: ProShares
운용 방식: 패시브 (지수 추종)
상장일: 2008년

Cost Efficiency

Annual Expense Ratio · Category Rank · Long-Term Cost Impact

Low-cost ETF — 0.95% annually

상위 25% within Commodities & Metals - Leveraged / Inverse. For a ₩100M investment, roughly ₩950,000/year.

Effective Annual Expense Ratio (Net Expense Ratio)

상위 25%

0.95%

My positionTop 25%

Low range Average High range

Actual Cost Simulation by Investment Amount

$100.0M

Annual Expense Ratio

$950K

Same as category average

Category Median Annual Cost

$950K

Based on expense ratio of 0.95%

10-Year Cumulative Expense Ratio (Long-term simulation assuming 7% annual market growth)

$16.8M

17.4% of returns you could have earned goes to the fund manager due to fees

💡 Because the expense ratio takes a slice of your assets every year, costs compound over 10 years and result in far greater losses than a simple sum (annual fee × 10). The 7% annual return assumption is based on the S&P 500's long-term average.

Defaults shown against $100K baseline portfolio. Adjust the slider to update the amount in real time.

Cheaper alternatives in the same category

DGP

DB Gold Double Long ETN

0.75%

-0.20%p annually

* A lower fee does not necessarily mean a better ETF. Consider the tracked index, liquidity, and tax treatment as well.

Long-Term Performance

1-year · 3-year · 5-year · 10-year returns · vs. benchmark · drawdown defense

Top-tier returns in its category

상위 5% vs. 전체 ETF.+66.1%p vs. benchmark (SPY) over 1Y.

ℹ️ The "1Y·3Y·5Y·10Y" periods below represent annualized returns (CAGR) measured backward from today. Example: "3Y +12%" means the investment grew at a compounded 12% per year over the past three years.

⚡ Leveraged ETF — beware of compounding decay over long holding periods

These ETFs aim to deliver 2–3× the daily return of the underlying index, but during sideways or volatile markets, compounding effects can cause long-term cumulative returns to diverge significantly from 2–3× the index. They are suited for short-term trading and are not appropriate as core holdings for long-term portfolios.

If you had invested 10 year(s) ago

$100.0M

Today's value

$32.9M

→

Total loss

$-67,131,917

Annualized -10.5%

1 Year

2025.07 ~ 2026.07

Annualized +83.88%

상위 25%

Outperformed the benchmark by 66.1%p annually

My positionTop 25%

Low range Average High range

3 Years

2023.07 ~ 2026.07

Annualized +18.29% Cumulative +65.5%

상위 25%

Trailed the benchmark by 0.7%p annually

My positionTop 25%

Low range Average High range

5 Years

2021.07 ~ 2026.07

Annualized +18.28% Cumulative +131.5%

상위 5%

Outperformed the benchmark by 5.4%p annually

My positionTop 5%

Low range Average High range

10Y

2016.07 ~ 2026.07

Annualized -10.53% Cumulative -67.1%

하위 25%

Trailed the benchmark by 25.4%p annually

My positionBottom 25%

Low range Average High range

10Y Cumulative Total Return Curve

2016-07-28 start, based on a 100M KRW base — read the curve values directly as units of 100M KRW (e.g., 308 → 3.08억 / 308M KRW). Both this ETF and the benchmark are rebased to 100 on the same start date for comparison.

UCO · Price Only UCO · Price + Cumulative Dividends UCO · Dividend Reinvested S&P 500 (SPY)

150

300

450

ℹ️ Price Only: Excludes dividends and tracks pure stock price only. Covered-call and high-dividend ETFs often show a flat or declining line on this view, which is meaningful from a "principal preservation" standpoint. Price + Cumulative Dividend: Share count stays the same and received dividends are accumulated as cash. Closely matches your actual account total assets. Reinvested: Dividends are immediately used to buy additional shares (adjClose-based, the industry standard for total return). The wider the gap between the three lines, the easier it is to gauge the effectiveness of the dividend strategy.

Annual Return Comparison

ETF returns vs S&P 500 (SPY) by calendar year

UCO S&P 500 (SPY)

+150%

−150%

+5%

2017

-44%

2018

+49%

2019

-93%

2020

+148%

2021

+37%

2022

-8%

2023

+8%

2024

-32%

2025

+106%

2026 YTD

💡 Leveraged ETFs have an asymmetric structure: big wins in up markets, big losses in down markets.

ℹ️ Returns from January 1 to December 31 of each year. The current year (2026) column is dimmed to indicate YTD (incomplete). If blue is higher than gray, the ETF outperformed the benchmark in that year.

Win rate vs S&P 500 (SPY)

3 / 9Y

Lags behind benchmark (33%)

+ 2026 YTD: Ahead (106.5% vs 8.5%)

2017 ✗

2018 ✗

2019 ✓

2020 ✗

2021 ✓

2022 ✓

2023 ✗

2024 ✗

2025 ✗

2026 ✓ YTD

💡 Leveraged wins in up markets, loses big in down markets — annual return dispersion matters more than win rate.

ℹ️ Number of winning years versus S&P 500 (SPY) within a completed calendar year (1/1–12/31). The current year (YTD) is reported separately.

Downside Capture

🛡️ -66%

Falls less than the benchmark in drawdowns — strong downside protection

<85% (Defend) 85~110% (Track) >110% (Lag)

💡 Leveraged ETFs are designed to fall 2–3x the benchmark — values above 200% are normal. Short-term risk must be considered.

ℹ️ Average % drop of this ETF when S&P 500 (SPY) is −1%. Based on daily returns over the past 3 years (only days where the benchmark is negative).

Risk Profile

Volatility · Beta · Max Drawdown · Sharpe · Drawdown Recovery History

Overall Risk Grade

High Risk

These 2-3x leveraged products are structurally very volatile. Holding them long-term can erode your principal in ways that don't match expectations, so they're better suited for short-term trading.

⚡ Leveraged ETF — High Beta & Volatility Are by Design

A Beta of 2 or higher and volatility 2–3× the underlying index is by design. The "high volatility" reading below is a feature of the product, not a problem. However, long-term holding can lead to compounding decay and results that differ from expectations.

Beta (market sensitivity)

평균권

0.20

If the market rises +10% +2.0%

If the market falls -10% -2.0%

My positionMid-range

Low range Average High range

ℹ️ A beta of 1.0 moves in line with the market. Above 1 means it moves more than the market; below 1 means less.

Average daily range (last 1 month)

평균권

±3.84%

S&P 500 typically ±1.0~1.3% · Bond funds ±0.3% · Leveraged ETFs ±3% or more

Annual volatility trend (past 10 years)

ℹ️ This ETF's average daily price swing. 1% means "on average, moves about ±1% per day." The rolling curve below shows the annualized volatility (long-term standard measure) over time.

Max Drawdown · Past 10 years

-99.1%

Drawdown duration: 58 months

2015-07-31 → 2020-04-28

Still recovering

2015-07-31 Worst -99% 2026-07-01

ℹ️ Maximum drawdown is the largest peak-to-trough decline in the past. It represents the worst-case loss a long-term investor must psychologically endure.

Sharpe Ratio (Risk-Adjusted Return)

-0.29

Poor — Underperforms the risk-free rate

ℹ️ Annualized return minus the risk-free rate (3% annualized), divided by annualized volatility. A value above 1.0 is generally considered good risk-adjusted performance.

Estimated Monthly Maximum Loss (VaR 95%)

-31.7%

Historically, monthly losses exceeding this figure occurred only5%of the time.

ℹ️ A statistical estimate meaning "with 95% probability, monthly losses will not exceed this amount." The remaining 5% corresponds to crisis-level events such as financial crises or pandemics.

Overall investment appeal

What this ETF fits best — strengths, weaknesses, and target investor profile

Designed for short-term trading Not recommended for long-term investing, but suitable for short-term trading and hedging.

⚠️ 2–3x leveraged product; not suitable for long-term holding. Use as a short-term trading tool only.

🎯 목적별 적합도

내가 이 ETF를 어떤 목적으로 활용할 수 있는지 확인하세요.

🌳

장기 보유

수년 이상 꾸준히 모아갈 때

매우 낮음

💵

배당 인컴

매월·분기 현금흐름이 목적일 때

부적합

⚡

단기 트레이딩

며칠~몇 주 단기 방향성 매매

매우 적합

🧩

포트폴리오 보조

자산 배분·헤지 용도

매우 낮음

👤

이런 분에게 어울려요

Short-term traders only

✅ 강점

💸Low cost — 0.95% annually
📈Top 5% long-term returns in 전체 ETF
🎯Outperforms benchmark by +5.4%p annually

⚠️ 약점·주의사항

🎢Leveraged — compounding decay can produce results that differ from expectations over long holds

Category Peers

Category: Commodities & Metals - Leveraged / Inverse

같은 카테고리 6종 중 AUM 3/6위 · 보수율 1/6위

카테고리: Commodities & Metals - Leveraged / Inverse

ℹ️ 왜 비교해야 하나요?

같은 카테고리 ETF끼리는 보수율·규모(AUM)·배당률을 비교해 볼 가치가 있어요. 보수율은 낮을수록 장기 수익에 유리하고, AUM이 크면 운용 안정성이 높아요. ▲ 표시는 UCO보다 유리, ▼ 표시는 UCO보다 불리를 뜻해요.

티커	ETF명	보수율	AUM	보유종목	배당률	YTD	1년
UCO	ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Crude Oil 2x Shares	0.95%	$450M	10	-	+105.95%	+69.03%
AGQ	ProShares Ultra Silver 2x Shares	0.95%	$1.2B ▲	8	-	-	+24.14% ▼
UGL	ProShares Ultra Gold 2x Shares	0.95%	$663M ▲	7	-	-	+28.18% ▼
BOIL	ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Natural Gas 2x Shares	0.95%	$374M ▼	4	-	-	-72.11% ▼
SHNY	MicroSectors Gold 3X Leveraged ETNs	0.95%	$80M ▼	-	-	-	+14.68% ▼
CPXR	USCF Daily Target 2X Copper Index ETF	1.22% ▼	$13M ▼	9	0.61%	-	-4.70% ▼

AUM 내림차순 정렬 · ▲ UCO보다 유리 · ▼ UCO보다 불리

Leveraged & Covered Call ETFs on the Same Theme

ETFs that approach the same theme with a different strategy

21 ETFs tracking the same theme as UCO using leveraged or covered call strategies (Leverage 8 · Inverse 6 · Covered Call 7)

Not direct derivatives of UCO, but ETFs that cover the same theme via a different strategy.

ℹ️ Which ETFs are included?

Among ETFs whose theme (category or sector) overlaps with UCO, some use special strategies. Leveraged ETFs aim for 2–3× the daily move, Inverse ETFs seek opposite-direction returns, and Covered Call ETFs generate monthly income from option premiums.

⚠️ Caution: Long-Term Holding

Leveraged and inverse ETFs track only the daily return. With high volatility, holding them for longer periods causes cumulative volatility decay—returns diverge further from the underlying index. They are meant for short-term trading.

📈 Leverage 8 ETFs that amplify the same theme by 2-3x (high volatility)

AGQ

ProShares Ultra Silver 2x Shares

+1.14%

$1.2B

UGL

ProShares Ultra Gold 2x Shares

+1.37%

$663M

BOIL

ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Natural Gas 2x Shares

-8.19%