ORCX 주가 전망 및 ETF 분석 - 배당·운용보수·보유종목·NAV·RSI·MACD

ORCX

Defiance Daily Target 2X Long ORCL ETF

7월 28일 3:03 PM ET (한국 7/29 04:03)

$15.08

+1.19 ▲ +8.57%

ORCX ETF is analyzed across 10 metrics including expense ratio, holdings, sector allocation, dividends, RSI, and MACD.

Total Expense Ratio

1.36%

Annual operating cost

Net Assets (AUM)

$194M

약 2662억원

Holdings

9 items

Dividend Yield

Management Style

Active

Category ⓘ	Equity - Leveraged / Inverse	Asset Type ⓘ	Equities (Stocks)	Return% 1Y ⓘ	-86.29%	Total Holdings ⓘ	9	Perf Week ⓘ	-3.52%
ETF Type ⓘ	US Equities	Active/Passive ⓘ	Active	Return% 3Y ⓘ	-	AUM ⓘ	$194M	Perf Month ⓘ	-40.25%
Expense ⓘ	1.36%	NAV ⓘ	$13.89	Return% 5Y ⓘ	-	52W High ⓘ	-91.7%	Perf Quarter ⓘ	-58.11%
Dividend TTM ⓘ	-	Div Gr. 3/5Y ⓘ	-	Return% 10Y ⓘ	-	52W Low ⓘ	9.04%	Perf Half Y ⓘ	-64.12%
Flows% 1M ⓘ	152.46%	Flows% YTD ⓘ	599.98%	Return% SI ⓘ	-64.04%	Volatility(W/M) ⓘ	9.74% 9.87%	Perf YTD ⓘ	-70.83%
SMA20 ⓘ	-20.73%	SMA50 ⓘ	-55.36%	SMA200 ⓘ	-68.82%	RSI (14) ⓘ	31.55	Beta ⓘ	6.18
IPO ⓘ	2025/2/7	Prev Close ⓘ	$13.89	Perf Year ⓘ	-85.49%	Avg Volume ⓘ	2.82M	Price ⓘ	$15.08

📊 Defiance Daily Target 2X Long ORCL ETF (ORCX) Investment Analysis

ETF Overview

Defiance Daily Target 2X Long ORCL ETF · Equity - Leveraged / Inverse

레버리지형 — 지수의 2~3배 방향으로 추종 (단기 투자용 · 고위험)

2025년 상장, 1년 운영 중.

Defiance Daily Target 2X Long ORCL ETF는 수수료 차감 전 기준으로 Oracle Corporation(NYSE: ORCL) 주가 일일 변동률의 2배(200%)에 해당하는 일일 투자 성과를 목표로 하는 액티브 운용 ETF입니다. 스왑 계약·상장 옵션 등 파생상품을 활용해 기초 증권 주가 일일 변동률의 2배를 달성하려 합니다. 비분산형 펀드입니다.

📘 ORCX ETF 자세히 알아보기 →

U.S.single-assetORCLleverage

규모: $194M 약 2662억원
운용사: Defiance
운용 방식: 액티브 (운용사 재량)
상장일: 2025년

Cost Efficiency

Annual Expense Ratio · Category Rank · Long-Term Cost Impact

Above-average cost — 1.36% annually

Expense ratio is higher than the Equity - Leveraged / Inverse median. Compare against similar ETFs.

Effective Annual Expense Ratio (Net Expense Ratio)

하위 25%

1.36%

My positionBottom 25%

Low range Average High range

Actual Cost Simulation by Investment Amount

$100.0M

Annual Expense Ratio

$1.4M

Pay $390K more per year vs. category average

Category Median Annual Cost

$970K

Based on expense ratio of 0.97%

10-Year Cumulative Expense Ratio (Long-term simulation assuming 7% annual market growth)

$23.6M

24.4% of returns you could have earned goes to the fund manager due to fees

💡 Because the expense ratio takes a slice of your assets every year, costs compound over 10 years and result in far greater losses than a simple sum (annual fee × 10). The 7% annual return assumption is based on the S&P 500's long-term average.

Defaults shown against $100K baseline portfolio. Adjust the slider to update the amount in real time.

Cheaper alternatives in the same category

TOPW

Roundhill Top WeeklyPay ETF

0.32%

-1.04%p annually

FNGU

MicroSectors FANG+ 3X Leveraged ETNs

0.35%

-1.01%p annually

SPDN

Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 1X ETF

0.48%

-0.88%p annually

* A lower fee does not necessarily mean a better ETF. Consider the tracked index, liquidity, and tax treatment as well.

Long-Term Performance

1-year · 3-year · 5-year · 10-year returns · vs. benchmark · drawdown defense

Insufficient return data

-104.1%p vs. benchmark (SPY) over 1Y.

ℹ️ The "1Y·3Y·5Y·10Y" periods below represent annualized returns (CAGR) measured backward from today. Example: "3Y +12%" means the investment grew at a compounded 12% per year over the past three years.

⚡ Leveraged ETF — beware of compounding decay over long holding periods

These ETFs aim to deliver 2–3× the daily return of the underlying index, but during sideways or volatile markets, compounding effects can cause long-term cumulative returns to diverge significantly from 2–3× the index. They are suited for short-term trading and are not appropriate as core holdings for long-term portfolios.

If you had invested 1 year(s) ago

$100.0M

Today's value

$13.7M

→

Total loss

$-86,290,000

Annualized -86.3%

1 Year

2025.07 ~ 2026.07

Annualized -86.29%

하위 25%

Trailed the benchmark by 104.1%p annually

My positionBottom 25%

Low range Average High range

3 Years

2023.07 ~ 2026.07

Listed 2025/2 — under 3 years

5 Years

2021.07 ~ 2026.07

Listed 2025/2 — under 5 years

10Y

2016.07 ~ 2026.07

Listed 2025/2 — under 10 years

1Y Cumulative Total Return Curve

2025-02-07 start, based on a 100M KRW base — read the curve values directly as units of 100M KRW (e.g., 308 → 3.08억 / 308M KRW). Both this ETF and the benchmark are rebased to 100 on the same start date for comparison.

ORCX · Price Only ORCX · Price + Cumulative Dividends ORCX · Dividend Reinvested S&P 500 (SPY)

100

200

ℹ️ Price Only: Excludes dividends and tracks pure stock price only. Covered-call and high-dividend ETFs often show a flat or declining line on this view, which is meaningful from a "principal preservation" standpoint. Price + Cumulative Dividend: Share count stays the same and received dividends are accumulated as cash. Closely matches your actual account total assets. Reinvested: Dividends are immediately used to buy additional shares (adjClose-based, the industry standard for total return). The wider the gap between the three lines, the easier it is to gauge the effectiveness of the dividend strategy.

Annual Return Comparison

ETF returns vs S&P 500 (SPY) by calendar year

ORCX S&P 500 (SPY)

+80%

−80%

-16%

2025

-71%

2026 YTD

💡 Leveraged ETFs have an asymmetric structure: big wins in up markets, big losses in down markets.

ℹ️ Returns from January 1 to December 31 of each year. The current year (2026) column is dimmed to indicate YTD (incomplete). If blue is higher than gray, the ETF outperformed the benchmark in that year.

Win rate vs S&P 500 (SPY)

—

Completed years: 1 — 3+ years of data are needed for a win rate to be shown.

2025 ✗

2026 ✗ YTD

💡 Leveraged wins in up markets, loses big in down markets — annual return dispersion matters more than win rate.

ℹ️ Number of winning years versus S&P 500 (SPY) within a completed calendar year (1/1–12/31). The current year (YTD) is reported separately.

Downside Capture

⚠️ 456%

Falls more than the benchmark — vulnerable in drawdowns

<85% (Defend) 85~110% (Track) >110% (Lag)

💡 Leveraged ETFs are designed to fall 2–3x the benchmark — values above 200% are normal. Short-term risk must be considered.

ℹ️ Average % drop of this ETF when S&P 500 (SPY) is −1%. Based on daily returns over the past 3 years (only days where the benchmark is negative).

Risk Profile

Volatility · Beta · Max Drawdown · Sharpe · Drawdown Recovery History

Overall Risk Grade

High Risk

These 2-3x leveraged products are structurally very volatile. Holding them long-term can erode your principal in ways that don't match expectations, so they're better suited for short-term trading.

⚡ Leveraged ETF — High Beta & Volatility Are by Design

A Beta of 2 or higher and volatility 2–3× the underlying index is by design. The "high volatility" reading below is a feature of the product, not a problem. However, long-term holding can lead to compounding decay and results that differ from expectations.

Beta (market sensitivity)

하위 25%

6.18

If the market rises +10% +61.8%

If the market falls -10% -61.8%

My positionBottom 25%

Low range Average High range

ℹ️ A beta of 1.0 moves in line with the market. Above 1 means it moves more than the market; below 1 means less.

Average daily range (last 1 month)

평균권

±9.87%

S&P 500 typically ±1.0~1.3% · Bond funds ±0.3% · Leveraged ETFs ±3% or more

Annual volatility trend (past 10 years)

ℹ️ This ETF's average daily price swing. 1% means "on average, moves about ±1% per day." The rolling curve below shows the annualized volatility (long-term standard measure) over time.

Max Drawdown · Past 10 years

-91.7%

Drawdown duration: 11 months

2025-09-10 → 2026-07-24

Still recovering

2025-02-07 Worst -87% 2026-07-01

ℹ️ Maximum drawdown is the largest peak-to-trough decline in the past. It represents the worst-case loss a long-term investor must psychologically endure.

Sharpe Ratio (Risk-Adjusted Return)

-0.53

Poor — Underperforms the risk-free rate

ℹ️ Annualized return minus the risk-free rate (3% annualized), divided by annualized volatility. A value above 1.0 is generally considered good risk-adjusted performance.

Overall investment appeal

What this ETF fits best — strengths, weaknesses, and target investor profile

Designed for short-term trading Not recommended for long-term investing, but suitable for short-term trading and hedging.

⚠️ 2–3x leveraged product; not suitable for long-term holding. Use as a short-term trading tool only.

🎯 목적별 적합도

내가 이 ETF를 어떤 목적으로 활용할 수 있는지 확인하세요.

🌳

장기 보유

수년 이상 꾸준히 모아갈 때

부적합

💵

배당 인컴

매월·분기 현금흐름이 목적일 때

부적합

⚡

단기 트레이딩

며칠~몇 주 단기 방향성 매매

매우 적합

🧩

포트폴리오 보조

자산 배분·헤지 용도

매우 낮음

👤

이런 분에게 어울려요

Short-term traders only

✅ 강점

뚜렷한 강점이 드러나지 않아요.

⚠️ 약점·주의사항

💸Expense ratio is somewhat high — 1.36% annually
🎯Trails benchmark by -104.1%p annually
🎢Leveraged — compounding decay can produce results that differ from expectations over long holds

Portfolio Composition

What's actually inside — sector weights and top holdings

파생상품 기반 ETF

실제 보유 종목이 일반 ETF와 다르게 스왑·선물 중심이에요.

ℹ️ 왜 구성을 봐야 하나요?

ETF의 실제 성과는 담고 있는 종목과 섹터에서 나와요. 이름이 "S&P 500"이라도 기술주 비중이 유난히 높을 수 있고, "배당주 ETF"라도 몇몇 대형주에 쏠려 있을 수 있어요. 라벨보다 실제 구성을 확인하는 게 중요해요.

🔬 집중도 한눈에 보기

총 보유종목

9개

상위 10개 비중

59.4%

최대 단일 종목

32.74%

집중도(HHI)

1175

보통

⚠️ 소수 종목·섹터에 집중되어 있어, 해당 종목/섹터가 흔들리면 ETF 전체가 크게 영향을 받아요.

📋 상위 보유 종목 Top 10 Top 10이 전체의 59.4% 차지

티커 옆의 점 색상 = 섹터 구분 (섹터 차트와 동일 색상)

BNO TREASURY BILL

32.74%

#2 - N/A

5.90%

FAF First American Government Obli

4.49%

#4 - N/A

3.86%

#5 - N/A

3.67%

#6 - N/A

2.54%

#7 - N/A

2.49%

#8 - N/A

2.01%

#9 - N/A

1.67%

Category Peers

Category: Equity - Leveraged / Inverse

같은 카테고리 6종 중 AUM 6/6위 · 보수율 6/6위

카테고리: Equity - Leveraged / Inverse

ℹ️ 왜 비교해야 하나요?

같은 카테고리 ETF끼리는 보수율·규모(AUM)·배당률을 비교해 볼 가치가 있어요. 보수율은 낮을수록 장기 수익에 유리하고, AUM이 크면 운용 안정성이 높아요. ▲ 표시는 ORCX보다 유리, ▼ 표시는 ORCX보다 불리를 뜻해요.

티커	ETF명	보수율	AUM	보유종목	배당률	YTD	1년
ORCX	Defiance Daily Target 2X Long ORCL ETF	1.36%	$194M	9	-	-70.83%	-85.49%
TQQQ	ProShares UltraPro QQQ 3x Shares	0.82% ▲	$31.7B ▲	130	0.60%	-	+42.58% ▲
SOXL	Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X ETF	0.75% ▲	$19.9B ▲	45	0.01%	-	+400.59% ▲
QLD	ProShares Ultra QQQ 2x Shares	0.95% ▲	$12.6B ▲	128	0.14%	-	+33.62% ▲
SSO	ProShares Ultra S&P500 2x Shares	0.87% ▲	$7.7B ▲	523	0.69%	-	+27.09% ▲
SPXL	Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bull 3X ETF	0.84% ▲	$6.5B ▲	516	0.55%	-	+38.29% ▲

AUM 내림차순 정렬 · ▲ ORCX보다 유리 · ▼ ORCX보다 불리

Leveraged & Covered Call ETFs on the Same Theme

ETFs that approach the same theme with a different strategy

24 ETFs tracking the same theme as ORCX using leveraged or covered call strategies (Leverage 8 · Inverse 8 · Covered Call 8)

Not direct derivatives of ORCX, but ETFs that cover the same theme via a different strategy.

ℹ️ Which ETFs are included?

Among ETFs whose theme (category or sector) overlaps with ORCX, some use special strategies. Leveraged ETFs aim for 2–3× the daily move, Inverse ETFs seek opposite-direction returns, and Covered Call ETFs generate monthly income from option premiums.

⚠️ Caution: Long-Term Holding

Leveraged and inverse ETFs track only the daily return. With high volatility, holding them for longer periods causes cumulative volatility decay—returns diverge further from the underlying index. They are meant for short-term trading.

📈 Leverage 8 ETFs that amplify the same theme by 2-3x (high volatility)