Thomas Miller Model Projects Probability of Republicans Retaining Senate Control Drops to 17.1%
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View chart & analysis → - 1The probability of Republicans securing 50 seats to maintain Senate control was 34.8% on September 17, but fell to 17.1% around 9:00 AM on October 30.
- 2Thomas Miller stated that the model identified 85% to 90% of the causes for volatility in Kalshi and Polymarket.
- 3The probability of Adam Hamilton's victory in Kansas was shown to be 57.1%.
So what's the key point?
The probability of the Republican Party continuing to hold power in the Senate has decreased to 17.1%. As this figure falls, movements in related prediction markets are changing.
Source Fortune · View original ↗
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